Will Iran eventually have a nuclear weapon?

Diana Estefanía Rubio

Will Iran eventually have a nuclear weapon?

In 2015, Iran and world powers, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, China, France, and Germany, reached an agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), that saw the easing of international sanctions on Tehran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme.

But the United States unilaterally withdrew from the accord in 2018 under then-president Donald Trump and reimposed biting economic sanctions, which prompted Iran to begin rolling back on its own commitments.

Since 2021, Tehran has scaled back cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by deactivating surveillance devices monitoring the nuclear programme and barring UN inspectors. At the same time, it has ramped up its nuclear activities by increasing its stockpiles of enriched uranium and the level of enrichment to 60%.

While Iran maintains its nuclear programme for peaceful purposes only, the abovementioned enrichment level is close, according to the IAEA, to the 90%-plus threshold required for a nuclear warhead and substantially higher than the 3.67% limit it agreed to in 2015.

The IAEA also estimated in its quarterly report that as of October 26, 2024, Iran’s overall stockpile of enriched uranium stands at 6,604.4 kilogrammes (14,560 pounds), an increase of 852.6 kilogrammes (1,879.6 pounds) since August.

Last Thursday, the UN atomic watchdog's 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution again ordering Iran to urgently improve cooperation with the agency and requesting a "comprehensive" report to press Iran into fresh nuclear talks. In response to the resolution, Iran said Friday it would launch a series of "new and advanced" centrifuges, which enrich uranium for the country’s nuclear programme.

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