Even if we get a Lebanon truce, expect another war down the line

For UN Resolution 1701 to truly be effective, serious and clear mechanisms for its implementation must be established

Even if we get a Lebanon truce, expect another war down the line

Israeli attacks on the Lebanese capital are increasingly becoming routine news, with recurring air strikes resulting in casualties and destruction that, until recently, were limited to Hezbollah's areas of influence in Beirut's southern suburbs. Israel claims to be targeting Hezbollah members sheltering among civilians in residential neighbourhoods. If true, this shows the blatant disregard for civilian life on the part of both Israel and Hezbollah.

Every night, the Lebanese go to sleep cautiously optimistic that a ceasefire agreement is within reach, only to be abruptly woken up by the sound of Israeli bombs falling around them. In Beirut's southern suburbs, Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee issues warnings to evacuate buildings there that are already empty of civilians. But in central Beirut, the strikes come without warning and civilians are killed.

Since 8 October 2023, Israel has gone after Hezbollah members and leaders while maintaining its key focus on destroying Hamas in Gaza. But with the Strip pretty much decimated at this point, Israel has made Hezbollah in Lebanon its chief focus.

It began with the pager attack, which killed dozens and maimed thousands of Hezbollah operatives and bystanders. This was swiftly followed by the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Then, it invaded Lebanon's south, and reports now suggest that the Israeli army may be advancing towards the Litani River.

A few days ago, US envoy Amos Hochstein returned to Lebanon after receiving Hezbollah's response to the draft proposal. Following a meeting with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Hochstein stated, "The meeting was constructive, and we have a real opportunity to end the conflict." Berri echoed this sentiment, saying, "The situation is good, in principle," but clarified that "a few details" still needed to be ironed out.

Suggesting that today's war could end through the implementation of UN Resolution 1701 is extremely naive

Devil in the details

However, as the saying goes, the devil is in the details. According to leaked reports on the draft agreement, Lebanese negotiators have accepted a clause concerning self-defence, which, in clearer terms, grants Israel the right to violate Lebanon's sovereignty whenever it deems necessary. According to media reports, Lebanese approval of this clause is justified by its revised wording, which states, "Each party has the right to self-defence if attacked, provided that the United States ensures Israel refrains from conducting preemptive strikes."

In this scenario, the guarantor is the US—a steadfast ally of Israel; the mediator is an envoy holding dual US and Israeli citizenship; and the negotiators are Nabih Berri, officially delegated by Hezbollah, and its new Secretary-General, Naim Qassem. Meanwhile, the Lebanese state and its institutions remain noticeably absent.

Although Hochstein has recently sought to address this by meeting with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati to update him on the progress, as well as with Army Commander General Joseph Aoun and some political party leaders, the state, in its institutional capacity, has been excluded from the negotiations, including both the cabinet and parliament. Meanwhile, Lebanon continues to be president-less amid an ongoing presidential vacuum that has lasted over two years.

This raises several critical questions: If an agreement is reached, would this be considered a pact between Israel and Lebanon or Israel and Hezbollah? Will the Lebanese "state" supervise the agreement's implementation?

In the 18 years since the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah ended, neither side has abided by the UN resolution that brought the battle to a close

An agreement remains doubtful

These questions cast doubt on the likelihood of an agreement being reached anytime soon. While Israel and the US may acknowledge that Hezbollah is the de facto authority in Lebanon, recent developments have complicated matters. The ongoing war of attrition and its aftermath have altered the domestic landscape. 

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu keeps adding more military goals to his campaign in Lebanon, with no regard for the human and material costs incurred by the Lebanese people. He even threw a wrench into the works ahead of Hochstein's arrival in Beirut by restating his intention to destroy Hezbollah completely.

In the 18 years since the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah ended, neither side has abided by the UN resolution that brought the battle to a close. Suggesting that today's war could end through the implementation of UN Resolution 1701 is extremely naive.

For this resolution to be truly effective, serious and clear mechanisms for its implementation must be established. If not, then the Lebanese will have to brace themselves for the next war, which will inevitably erupt in however many years' time.

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