North Korean troops in Ukraine seen as a major escalation

The deployment of North Korean forces will certainly hurt Ukraine, which is suffering from a severe manpower shortage

North Korean troops in Ukraine seen as a major escalation

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the main preoccupation of world leaders has been to prevent the conflict from escalating into a major confrontation between Russia and the West. The Biden administration, in particular, has been keen to restrict the amount of hi-tech weaponry given to Ukraine for fear that it could provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin from expanding his military offensive beyond Ukraine’s borders, leading to a major confrontation with NATO.

For its part, Moscow has made it clear the West must not overstep the mark in its support for Ukraine, with Putin making constant references to the Kremlin’s powerful arsenal of nuclear weapons to act as a deterrent against deeper Western involvement.

Reports, therefore, that North Korea has deployed thousands of its troops to Ukraine in support of Russia’s military offensive will inevitably raise concerns of a broader escalation in the conflict between Moscow and the West as Putin intensifies his efforts to capture Ukrainian territory. Speculation about the possibility of North Korea deploying troops to aid Putin’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine has been growing since the summer when the Russian leader travelled to Pyongyang for a summit with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.

After the two leaders signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” pact that included a vow of mutual aid if either country was attacked, there were indications that North Korea had agreed to increase its military support for Russia in return for Moscow providing Pyongyang with financial support and nuclear expertise.

Major backer

North Korea has emerged as one of Moscow’s major military backers, providing constant shipments of missiles and ammunition. Therefore, the latest reports that it has upped its support by agreeing to deploy ground forces to Russia to support its military operations in Ukraine will be seen by Western leaders as a significant escalation in the conflict.

South Korea has warned that around 12,000 North Korean troops were training to fight alongside Russian soldiers

South Korea's spy agency warned earlier this month that around 12,000 North Korean troops were training to fight alongside Russian soldiers, with 2,600 already acclimatising in Russia's far east. There have even been videos circulating which appear to show North Korean forces training at a Russian military base.

Ukrainian intelligence officials have also warned of the impending arrival of North Korean forces, with Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's intelligence warning that he expected North Korean troops to arrive in Russia's Kursk region on Wednesday. Ukrainian forces seized significant swathes of territory in Kursk earlier in the summer, prompting Moscow to launch a counter-offensive to recapture the territory.

Now, the US has, for the first time, confirmed the deployment of thousands of North Korean troops to Russia, with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin warning that it could become a "very serious" potential escalation in the conflict. Speaking to reporters in Rome this week, Austin said there was evidence that North Korean forces were in Russia, warning that "if they're co-belligerents, and their intention is to participate in this war on Russia's behalf, that is a very, very serious issue."

A senior US military official later clarified Austin's remarks, explaining that while thousands of North Korean troops were in Russia, "we don't know what their mission will be or if they'll go on to fight in Ukraine."  Officials in Moscow have refused to confirm or deny whether North Korean troops were in its territory preparing to fight in Ukraine.

The deployment of North Korean forces will certainly hurt Ukraine, which is suffering from a severe manpower shortage as it struggles to maintain military operations on several fronts. 

Recruitment problem

Concerns about Ukraine's ability to provide fresh conscripts to sustain the country's war effort have deepened after Ukraine's Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin announced he had resigned earlier this week. Kostin said he was taking responsibility for a scandal in which dozens of officials are alleged to have abused their position to receive disability status and avoid military service.

The deployment of North Korean forces will certainly hurt Ukraine, which is suffering from a severe manpower shortage

Kostin's resignation followed a meeting of the National Security and Defence Council, where officials discussed how to crack down on corruption and on loopholes being used to get draft deferrals.

There has been a national outcry in Ukraine after a journalist published a story earlier this month claiming that 50 prosecutors in the western region of Khmelnytskyi had been registered as disabled. With Ukraine struggling to find sufficient numbers of recruits to sustain its war effort, the deployment of North Korean forces could not only prove to be a game-changer on the battlefield. Their deployment would also reflect Putin's growing determination to build a powerful alliance of allies to challenge the West's long-standing dominance on the global stage.

Rebalanced world order

Putin's desire to establish a "rebalanced" world order to rival the West was very much in evidence this week after the Russian leader hosted a summit in Kazan, in central Russia. In an attempt to double the size of the BRICS bloc, Putin says he is determined to create a new economic body to challenge the traditional dominance of the West.

Read more: Putin to unveil his vision for a more balanced world in Kazan

"The process of forming a multipolar world order is underway, a dynamic and irreversible process," Putin said on Wednesday on the second day of the three-day summit, which will expand the BRICS grouping to up to 22 members. Among those attending the event in Kazan were Chinese President Xi Jinping, as well as the leaders of Iran, India, South Africa, Egypt, the UAE, and Ethiopia.

With Putin determined to broaden Moscow's network of alliances across the globe, it is clear that his desire to challenge the West's dominance is not merely confined to the battlefields of Ukraine.

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