As global attention zeroes in on Israel's expanding conflicts across the Middle East, a storm is brewing in northwest Syria. After a three-month lull, Russian fighter jets have returned to the skies, raining down heavy air strikes on the last opposition-held territories.
These air assaults have been paired with heavy artillery and rocket fire from regime forces targeting Idlib and rural Aleppo, as well as the deployment of reinforcements to front-line positions. The renewed hostilities mark a sharp escalation in the region, resulting in civilian casualties and forcing thousands to flee their homes.
The ongoing flare-up follows whispers of an imminent offensive by opposition factions, seeking to exploit the distractions of the regime’s key allies, Hezbollah and Iran, who are currently entangled in their own conflicts with Israel. Yet, without the resources or external support needed to tilt the battlefield, these rumours—whether they materialise or not—threaten to further destabilise an already fragile region. For civilians, this means enduring another wave of suffering with no safe haven in sight.
The frontlines separating regime and opposition forces have remained unchanged since a 2020 ceasefire brokered by Turkey and Russia. Despite intermittent flare-ups, mainly driven by the regime, the ceasefire has largely held— a sign that local factions alone no longer have the strength to alter territorial boundaries. Any significant change on the ground would require not just backing but active participation from their powerful patrons—namely Russia and Turkey.
