A year after Hamas launched its deadly assault against Israel, killing an estimated 1,200 people and taking another 250 or so hostage, the prospects of the violence the attack has provoked throughout the Middle East show no sign of abating.
While the attack caught the Israeli military and security forces off guard, with many Israelis still questioning how the atrocity was ever allowed to happen, the Israelis have more than made up for their failings in the run-up to October 7 by their relentless assault against their various adversaries.
For much of the past year, the main focus of Israel’s revenge mission against the perpetrators of the attacks has been to launch a devastating military offensive in Gaza.
While the Israelis’ insist their primary objective has been to destroy the extensive underground military infrastructure that enabled Hamas to carry out the attacks in the first place, the ferocity of the Israeli assault has resulted in large swathes of the enclave being reduced to rubble while humanitarian groups claim in excess of 40,000 Palestinian civilians— including women and children—have been killed.
Yet, despite the fact that Israel has claimed to have destroyed more than 20 of the original 24 combat brigades Hamas had at its disposal when hostilities commenced after October 7, the Iranian-backed group shows no sign of renouncing its struggle against the Israelis.
Back on global agenda
Indeed, far from acknowledging responsibility for provoking the Gaza conflict, Khalil al-Hayya, the deputy leader of Hamas, insisted in a BBC interview that last year’s October 7 attacks were necessary to place the issue of Palestinian statehood back on the global agenda.
Read more: Palestinians must capitalise on the growing global support for their cause
Apart from maintaining its military assault against Hamas, the past year has also seen the Israeli army launch military operations elsewhere in the Middle East. It has launched operations against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and Syria while also launching a long-range attack against Iran itself back in February in response to Iran launching its first direct attack against the Israeli state.
And now, as Israel marks the first anniversary of the October 7 attacks, all the indications suggest that, rather than seeking ways to end the violence, the Israelis remain determined to intensify their military operations, with the possibility of Israel launching a major attack against Iran remaining a strong possibility.
That certainly appeared to be the message Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was seeking to convey in an address he gave to Israeli troops on the northern border with Lebanon at the weekend.
Acknowledging the security failures which led to October 7, the Israeli premier declared: “A year ago, we took a terrible blow. In the 12 months since then, we have changed the reality across the board. The entire world is astonished by the blows you are landing on our enemies. I salute you and tell you: you are the generation of victory.”
Netanyahu appeal
Netanyahu also appealed for Western allies to demonstrate their support for Israel or risk strengthening Iran’s so-called “axis of evil”. Responding to Western leaders who have called for ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon and threatened to implement arms embargoes if they are not forthcoming, Netanyahu said: “Israel expects its friends to stand behind it and not impose restrictions that will only strengthen the Iranian axis of evil.”
His words came as Israeli jets and artillery continued to pound Hezbollah and Hamas positions in Lebanon and Gaza despite international calls for restraint. Despite the Israeli leader’s calls for support, many Western leaders continue to express reservations about Israel’s insistence on maintaining military operations at their present scale and intensity.
There is particular concern that the Israeli army may be planning a major military strike against Iran in retaliation for Iran’s recent attack against Israel, in which it fired an estimated 180 ballistic missiles at Israeli targets.
Read more: Iran missile salvo: Has Israel bitten off more than it can chew?
There are concerns a major military strike by Israel against Iran could provoke all-out war in the region. Fears of a major escalation of the crisis have prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to announce that France was withholding arms from Israel, citing the ongoing escalation in Lebanon.
Netanyahu responded angrily to the move, claiming that “Israel’s actions against Hezbollah are creating an opportunity to change the reality in Lebanon in favour of stability, security and peace in the entire region.”
Western pressure
Israel is also coming under pressure from other Western powers over its insistence on maintaining operations against Iran’s proxies across the Middle East. In Washington, US officials warned that military pressure “can lead to unintended consequences,” while in London, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, whose government has already restricted arms sales to Israel, renewed his calls for a ceasefire.
It is not just Israel, though, that remains determined to maintain hostilities. In Iran, the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking at a rare appearance to deliver a Friday sermon, warned that “the resistance in the region will not back down with these martyrdoms and will win.”
