Political analysts here and opinion surveys agree that it's still a toss-up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The opinion surveys indicate that Harris leads Trump among voters with about 49% compared to Trump’s approximately 47%. However, the presidential election is 50 state elections, and each candidate aims to capture a majority in each state to receive that state’s entire number of electors for the electoral college.
In 2020, almost 155 million Americans voted. A change of only 43,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin would have given Trump the victory instead of Biden. So far, the 2024 election appears to be the same. Therefore, according to analysts here, a shift of only a few thousand votes in half a dozen key states will be decisive.
Trump advantages
In this last month of the election, Donald Trump has some big advantages. His political base in the west-centre and south of the country is solid. In addition, opinion surveys for months have shown wide public dissatisfaction with the national economy, especially because of higher prices for food and housing.
Opinion surveys indicate that most voters think Donald Trump would manage the economy better. For example, an opinion survey from Pew Research in the last week of August showed that 55% of Americans have more confidence in Trump on economic issues than Harris, who had the confidence of 45% of voters.
The entry of millions of immigrants into America is also pressuring local labour markets, housing markets, and government budgets and services. Immigration has become a major national concern, and again, the Pew Research poll showed Trump enjoyed more confidence in handling this issue, 52%, compared to 45% for Harris.
Harris, therefore, confronts challenges. She needs a big number of younger voters to surpass Trump’s advantage with older voters. Opinion surveys indicate that the majority of younger voters support Harris, but the difference between her and Trump among younger voters is smaller than the difference between Biden and Trump in 2020 when Biden barely won the election.
The higher cost of rent and buying a house are especially painful for younger voters. In the campaign, Harris expends few efforts to defend the Biden administration’s economic measures or explain her future economic plans. Thus, on the top issue in the campaign, the Democratic Party candidates are weak. In addition, the left wing of the party—mostly younger Democrats—is unhappy with Harris’ rejection of expanding government health care insurance and the White House policy on the war in Gaza.
Read more: Super Tuesday showed how Gaza is shaping the tight race for the White House
Deflection strategy
To compensate, the Harris campaign is playing the deflection card. She is trying to turn the focus away from the economy, immigration, and Gaza to the dangers of Donald Trump.
Harris particularly stresses the risk to American women of restrictions on access to abortion, the top issue for millions of American voters—especially women. On the issue of abortion policy, 55% of the voters in the Pew Research poll believed Harris is more competent than Trump, 55% to 44%. The Democrats are depending on the abortion issue to mobilise millions of voters—in particular, women of all social classes and ethnic communities, including younger women. Abortion is so important an issue that Trump himself has wavered a little in his public support of restrictions.
On Gaza, her campaign is warning Americans unhappy with Israel's war on the Strip that Trump would be much worse for the Palestinians. Harris and her allies also emphasise the danger to American democracy and institutions if Trump returns to the Oval Office, recalling the 6 January 2021 attack on the Capitol in particular.
The Harris campaign is also advertising the support it has received from a variety of Republicans—including Trump’s former Attorney General and even former Vice President Dick Cheney—who fear Trump more than they dislike Harris.
A winning strategy
There are many signs that the Harris campaign strategy is succeeding. Biden was behind Trump in national polls and, more importantly, in polls in the key swing states. Despite her difficulties with younger voters so far, the most recent surveys show Harris is ahead or even with Trump nationally and, more importantly, in the seven key states of North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona.
These are key states because they have many votes in the electoral college, and opinion surveys indicate the two candidates’ standing is within a few percentage points of each other. For this reason, in the 2024 election, Trump and Harris spent most of their time in these seven states. Big, enthusiastic crowds attended recent election rallies with Harris in Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina.
Harris’s discipline and self-control are another advantage. In public, she strictly adheres to her basic message about her middle-class origins and issues like abortion and saving democracy. She successfully used these messages against Trump in the 10 September debate. Trump, by contrast, is not disciplined, and his campaign speeches often move from harsh personal attacks against Harris to recounting strange conspiracy stories.
During the 10 September debate, he repeated the bizarre extremist claim that Haitian immigrants catch and eat residents’ dogs and cats in a small town in Ohio. The town mayor denied the rumour, and Democrats quickly produced videos on TikTok and Instagram mocking Trump for this mythical story. However, Trump’s daily stories about immigrants and crime draw a dark picture of America, while Harris urges hope and unity even if she offers few policy details.
Stronger VP pick
The Democrats also have an advantage with the vice president candidates. Harris’ choice for vice president, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, grew up in a small town in the Republican-leaning state of Nebraska. He was a high school teacher in a small town in Minnesota, and he understands rural areas that usually support the Republican Party.
It is also important to note that in addition to teaching, Walz volunteered to manage his high school’s football team. The team's weekly matches are a major social event for small American towns, and Walz is comfortable speaking to this culture.
Read more: Tim Walz: The governor increasing Kamala Harris’s appeal
By contrast, Trump chose the young Ohio senator JD Vance, who is not an experienced politician. Vance blamed unmarried women for America’s social problems, insulting millions of women voters.
JD Vance calls Kamala Harris and other Democratic women who don’t have children, “childless cat ladies who are miserable.” pic.twitter.com/QhPXe0EDID
— No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen (@NoLieWithBTC) July 23, 2024
Shockingly, after a student murdered two students and two teachers at a school in the key state of Georgia on 4 September, Vance said that “these things happen” and the government could do nothing. Walz is sympathetic, but Vance is cold, and opinion polls show Walz has more support than his Republican Party competitor.
Read more: ‘Hillbilly’ Vance could give Trump the Rust Belt... and the White House
Funding advantage
Harris’ robust performance during the Democratic Party convention in Chicago in August, her powerful speeches at campaign rallies, and the relief that Biden has stepped aside in favour of a younger candidate have enabled the Harris campaign to raise huge financial donations. In its reporting to the National Election Commission, the campaign said it had raised $361mn in August alone, far surpassing the $130mn the Trump campaign raised during the month.
On 6 September, the Harris campaign reported having almost $400mn in cash accounts, while the Trump campaign reported having $295mn. The cash advantage is important since it enables a campaign to hire more workers and buy advertising, especially during this vital last phase of the campaign.
Risky strategy
The Republican Party is taking an untraditional approach to the 2024 presidential campaign by deploying a smaller campaign organisation and targeting a different type of American voter. After Lara Trump, wife of Trump’s son Eric, received control of the Republican Party national organisation in March, she fired dozens of workers and merged the Trump election campaign team with the national party organisation.
Some election veterans, including the former head of the Republican Party, Ronna McDaniel, have told the media that the Republican Party organisation is not ready for an intense national campaign. They say that the Republican Party does not have enough campaign workers to contact voters house-by-house in county after county, especially in key states. (I have noticed in the state of Maine, where I live, that there are many fewer Trump signs and flags than I saw in 2020.)
Trump is depending, however, not on Republican Party workers but rather on outside organisations for financing and workers. Elon Musk and other rich donors are giving millions of dollars to Trump’s political action committee to fund Trump’s campaign. In normal campaigns, organisers from the two political parties manage thousands of volunteers who make telephone calls and go house-to-house to encourage voters to support candidates.
