Muscular diplomacy needed to stop Israel-Hezbollah war

"The situation between Lebanon and Israel since October 8, 2023, is intolerable and presents an unacceptable risk of a broader regional escalation," said a joint statement of the countries released by the White House Wednesday following an emergency UN Security Council meeting on Lebanon. The statement's other signatories were Australia, Canada, the European Union, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

The initiative has certainly raised the possibility of some form of cessation of hostilities, especially after Israel indicated that it preferred to pursue diplomatic efforts to halt the violence. Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon told reporters that Israel would welcome a ceasefire and preferred a diplomatic solution while blaming Iran.

"We are grateful for all those who are making a sincere effort with diplomacy to avoid escalation, to avoid a full war," Danon said, but added that if talks failed: "We will use all means at our disposal, in accordance with international law, to achieve our aims."

Truce 'not in the cards'

A key factor in whether the diplomatic initiative stands any chance of success, though, will depend to a large extent on the response of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu— who is travelling to New York for the annual General Assembly gathering—who insists that a truce is not on the cards.

Netanyahu reportedly told Israeli ministers at a security meeting on Wednesday that "negotiations will only take place under fire; we're continuing to fire at Hezbollah in full force."

The Israelis insist that there can be no meaningful ceasefire until the security situation in northern Israel has improved to the extent that the 60,000 or so Israelis who have fled their homes in the region are able to return. This would require Hezbollah to stop firing the barrage of missiles that have been a constant threat to northern Israel since the 7 October attacks—a move the Iranian-backed militia has conditioned on a ceasefire in Gaza.

Even so, the US and France are continuing to spearhead efforts to end the violence. The White House released a joint statement by US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron after they met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, urging "broad endorsement" of the joint ceasefire statement and "for the immediate support of the governments of Israel and Lebanon."

While diplomats in New York continue to work on formulating a ceasefire deal that would be acceptable to all parties, Israel and Hezbollah have continued to trade blows. In the latest round of hostilities, the Israeli army said it had attacked around 75 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, while the Iran-backed militant group had fired dozens back.

Iran warning

Fears that the conflict could expand without the UN's intervention intensified after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Middle East was facing a "full-scale catastrophe", warning Tehran would back Lebanon by "all means" if fighting between Israel and Hezbollah escalates.

"The region is on the brink of a full-scale catastrophe. If unchecked, the world will face catastrophic consequences," he tells reporters at the United Nations, adding that Iran would "stand with the people of Lebanon with all means."

While Hezbollah has said it will continue to fight until there is a ceasefire in Gaza, American diplomats say the US is no longer seeking to link its push for a Gaza ceasefire with the Lebanon conflict due to the urgency of the crisis, which only adds to concerns that a lasting ceasefire in Lebanon may not be achievable.

In such circumstances, there has never been a greater need for the world's major powers to engage in the type of muscular diplomacy required to agree on an effective resolution at the UN Security Council—one that can bring a degree of stability to southern Lebanon and northern Israel.

Failure to do so risks plunging the region into an all-out war.