With the Biden administration announcing that it is sending more troops to the Middle East, there are mounting concerns that the deepening conflict between Israel and Hezbollah runs the risk of escalating into a far wider conflict.
The US already has around 40,000 troops based in the region, with the primary aim of defending Washington’s allies from the threat posed by Iran and its network of allied militias in the region. In particular, US forces have been used to protect Israel when attacked.
This has resulted in US-led coalition forces, including the UK and France, launching military action against Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels after they began launching attacks against merchant shipping in the Red Sea that they claimed was linked to Israel. Coalition forces responded by attacking Houthi positions in Yemen and intensifying naval protection patrols in the Red Sea.
The US military also led efforts to protect Israel after Iran launched its first direct attack against the Israelis in April in response to an Israeli air strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. US air defences were deployed to intercept and destroy the estimated 300 Iranian missiles and drones fired at Israel.
The Pentagon’s announcement on Monday, therefore, that it is sending a “small” detachment of troops to the Middle East in response to the deepening violence between Israel and Hezbollah will inevitably raise concerns that the US could ultimately become more involved in the spiralling conflict.
The possibility of US troops being used to shield Israel in the event of hostilities escalating further was certainly not ruled out when Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters about the troop build-up this week. “Given the tensions, given the escalation, there is the potential for a wider regional conflict,” he said. “I don’t think we’re there yet, but it’s a dangerous situation.” Ryder declined to describe the number of troops being sent or what their role would be.
USS Truman dispatched
Apart from the 40,000 US forces already in the region, the US has deployed more than a dozen warships together with thousands of marines on board ships in the Mediterranean Sea. This powerful force will soon be augmented by the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, which left port in Virginia on Monday accompanied by two destroyers and a cruiser. This means the US will again have two carriers deployed in the Middle East, with the USS Abraham Lincoln currently conducting operations in the Gulf of Oman. The US military build-up in the Middle East reflects its concern that Israel's new military operation in Lebanon could ultimately draw Iran into the conflict.
As Hezbollah’s main backer and sponsor, Iran is already deeply involved and closely monitoring developments in Lebanon—especially after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies were detonated last week, maiming thousands and killing dozens in an attack widely attributed to Israel. In the aftermath of the attack, Iran accused Israel of “mass murder”. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani condemned what he called "the terrorist act of the Zionist regime.”
Read more: Pager attack deals painful but far from decisive blow to Hezbollah
Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking in an interview with CNN during his trip to New York this week for the UN General Assembly, said that Hezbollah “cannot stand alone” against Israel.
“Hezbollah cannot stand alone against a country that is being defended and supported and supplied by Western countries, by European countries and the United States,” the president said. “We must not allow Lebanon to become another Gaza at the hands of Israel,” he said.
For its part, the US has warned Tehran of “cataclysmic” consequences if it carries out further attacks against Israel.
The bolstered US military presence in the region also suggests that the Biden administration’s prospects of implementing a ceasefire agreement in Gaza are rapidly diminishing, even though the White House remains committed to easing tensions in both Lebanon and Gaza.
After Israel launched a flurry of air strikes, the Biden administration called on both sides to exercise restraint while calling for an immediate ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. While the White House insisted that a diplomatic solution was still achievable, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said the administration was "afraid and concerned about potential escalation."
Past blunders
US officials will also be anxious not to repeat the mistakes of Washington’s last major military intervention in Lebanon in the 1980s, which resulted in hundreds of American military and diplomatic personnel losing their lives after a series of truck bombs destroyed the US Embassy and US Marine compound in Beirut.
In an attempt to calm tensions, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has so far held two calls with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, in which he continued to press the Israelis to implement a ceasefire in Gaza. But with hopes of a ceasefire rapidly fading, Gallant said the upsurge in Israeli military activity in Gaza showed that Israel had “decided to shift the ‘centre of gravity’ of our operations from the southern to the northern arena,” indicating that operations inside Gaza may be taking a backseat to increased fighting in the north.
Hezbollah initially launched its missile attacks against northern Israel in support of Hamas following the 7 October attacks, and US officials believe agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza could help to defuse tensions in Lebanon. But with diplomatic efforts to end hostilities making little headway, all the indications suggest there has been a marked increase in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, with the Iran-backed militia continuing to fire waves of rockets into Israel while Israeli warplanes continue to carry out hundreds of strikes on Lebanon and a few in Beirut.
Israel says its primary aim is targeting senior Hezbollah commanders, with the latest Israeli air strike against Beirut’s southern suburbs aimed at killing Ali Karaki, the movement’s military chief in southern Lebanon and one of Hezbollah’s last remaining battlefield commanders.
It was unclear whether Karaki was killed in the strike, with Hezbollah claiming he had survived and been moved to a safe house. Several senior Hezbollah commanders have already been killed, including Ibrahim Akil, Hezbollah’s special forces chief—a strike that will have badly hampered the group’s ability to plan an effective response to Israel’s offensive. Lebanon’s health ministry reported that at least 492 people, including 24 children, had been killed and over 1,200 wounded in the latest wave of Israeli air strikes.
While Israel’s military offensive in Lebanon has mainly consisted of launching air strikes, concerns remain that the Israelis may still be considering launching a ground offensive in southern Lebanon. The aim of such an operation would be to create a buffer zone that would enable the return of the estimated 60,000 Israelis who have fled their homes in northern Israel.
Until now, both Israel and Hezbollah have sought to avoid being drawn into a repeat of the 34-day war of 2006 in which the two sides fought each other to a bloody and inconclusive standstill in the mountains of southern Lebanon.
For his part, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Israelis of “complicated days” ahead but said that the new strategy would allow Israel to regain the initiative against Hezbollah. “I promised that we would change the security balance, the balance of power in the north,” he said. “That is exactly what we are doing.”
Mass displacement
In an attempt to limit the mounting civilian casualty rate in Lebanon, Israel said it contacted at least 80,000 people to warn them to evacuate villages where it claims Hezbollah has hidden rockets, replicating a tactic used in Gaza.
Israeli text messages and voice recordings warned residents to leave their villages used by Hezbollah and stay 1,000m away until they received a new message telling them it was safe to return. It was followed later by a video message from Mr Netanyahu urging all Lebanese civilians to “get out of harm’s way”.
Even so, the UN has expressed concern over the mounting civilian death toll in Lebanon, reporting that tens of thousands of people have already fled their homes.
“Tens of thousands of people were forced from their homes yesterday and overnight, and the numbers continue to grow,” UN refugee agency spokesman Matthew Saltmarsh told reporters in Geneva on Tuesday, adding that “the toll on civilians is unacceptable”.
Despite international calls for calm, the Israelis certainly show no sign of backing down in their confrontation with Hezbollah, with Lt Gen Herzi Halevi, the Israeli army's chief of staff, revealing that the large-scale strikes on Hezbollah strongholds had been given the codename “Operation Northern Arrows”, while warning that Israel was preparing for the next steps of the operation.
With neither side seemingly prepared to reduce hostilities, all the indications suggest the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah will only escalate further, with all the implications that will have on the rest of the region.
