Baghdad: Since its inception as a state in the 1920s, geopolitics have imposed harsh realities onto Iraq. As such, it has had difficulty managing its relationships with neighbouring countries.
When the country was still a monarchy, Prime Minister Nuri al-Said recognised the importance of forging regional and international alliances. During his tenure, he played a pivotal role in setting up the Baghdad Pact—an alliance comprised of Britain, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan. Unfortunately, this pact was unable to strengthen Iraq enough to protect it from the 1958 coup, during which nationalist army officer Abdul Karim Qasim oversaw the toppling of the monarchy and the assassination of al-Said.
When Saddam Hussein came to power in the late 1970s, he was of the view that the traditional way of doing things wasn’t working for Iraq. He believed Iraq needed to be a strong and dominant regional player and forcefully rule over its neighbours. He quickly started a war with Iran—the longest war of the 20th century—and when that was over eight years later, he tried to invade Kuwait.
However, Iraq’s quest for regional hegemony did not sit well with Washington. Then-US President George H.W. Bush thwarted Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, and then when his son George W. Bush became president, he overthrew the Baathist regime in Baghdad and executed Saddam. Keen to preserve American power and influence in the region, the US would go on to play a key role in forming Iraq’s subsequent governments while other regional players also meddled.
But instead of rebelling against this foreign meddling, Iraqi politicians surrendered, and for over 20 years, Iraq has been at its weakest. Failing to put its own national interests first, it has found itself continuously embroiled in regional conflicts. Foreign meddling has not only curbed Iraq’s ability to govern its own affairs but also made it practically impossible for it to form a cohesive national identity.
State fragility
Geography often plays a key role in determining a country’s fate, and the Middle East knows this all too well. For decades, it has been a battleground for regional and global powers to settle disputes and send messages to each other. As a result, several Arab countries rank high on the Fragile States Index (FSI).
And while Iraq’s ranking on the FSI has improved over the years, it remains in the danger zone. Iraq is governed by myriad political factions, with foreign loyalties often governed by sectarian, ethnic, or even personal interests, making it a tinderbox for conflict.
Due to the existence of different power and influence centres, Iraq doesn't have a unified foreign policy. In fact, when foreign dignitaries visit the country, they meet not just the president or prime minister but also party leaders and other political figures.
Another issue indicative of state fragility is the existence of parallel state entities represented by irregular armed groups. These groups undermine the government’s ability to provide security—an essential prerequisite for attracting foreign investment and fostering economic development.
Complex relationships
Well aware that a stable political and security environment is crucial for the state to play a strong and active role in its regional and international context Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani penned an article for Asharq Al-Awsat titled Iraq 2050: Prosperity, Stability, and Reviving the Baghdad of Innovation and Culture. In the piece, he says that “development can only be achieved through domestic stability and good foreign relations. This demands that Iraq be a country of laws where the state has a monopoly on arms. We will not tolerate seeing weapons outside the hands of the state’s security and military establishment. Good foreign relations require the development of regional and international partnerships.”
He goes on to say that “Iraq’s abundance of resources, strategic location, history, regional weight, and influence in the world economy all mean that it can play a bigger role befitting its real size. Its good relations with friendly countries have paved the way for building bilateral and multilateral partnerships with many countries across the globe, and we have many more relationships to build."
While what Al Sudani said has good intent, it remains unclear whether Iraq can extrapolate itself from its current conundrum. To date, Baghdad has failed to free itself from the influence of both Washington and Tehran.
At the beginning of his premiership, Al Sudani expressed to the US ambassador his wish that Iraq not be a battleground for US confrontation with Iran. While this may be wishful thinking, Washington needs to understand that a stable Iraq is in its own interest, and as such, it should avoid escalation and confrontation with Iran and its proxies in Iraq.
From its standpoint, Iran views Iraq not only as a sphere of influence but as a cornerstone of its national security vision. It considers a strong and stable Iraq as a threat and, therefore, strives to keep it divided and weak.
