Since Israel’s double assassination of top Hezbollah military commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the Gaza ceasefire talks have taken on a new urgency.
The hope is that a deal could prevent retaliation from the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’ by giving Iran and Hezbollah a diplomatic ‘win’ that could serve as a face-saving measure for their non-response to these high-profile killings.
The assassinations, both attributed to Tel Aviv, crossed previously established ‘red lines’, necessitating a response, but if a ceasefire deal is within touching distance, it would justify and explain why an axis vengeance mission was not forthcoming.
Spouting false hope
Following the resumption of talks on 15 August, US officials up to and including President Joe Biden have been systematically fed misleading information about the prospects of a breakthrough. This contrasts starkly with the reality on the ground.
Hamas and Israel continue to trade blame over who is responsible for obstructing a deal, but what has been overlooked is how these negotiations are being used by both the US and Iran to buy time.
Washington’s reasoning—that a deal could prevent Iranian-led attacks on Israel—does not lack credence. Indeed, it was confirmed by three senior Iranian officials to Reuters, in an interview published on August 13.
