United Nations exit from Iraq keeps Iran's braying clans at bayhttps://en.majalla.com/node/321887/politics/united-nations-exit-iraq-keeps-irans-braying-clans-bay
United Nations exit from Iraq keeps Iran's braying clans at bay
After 20 years, the UN Mission is being wound up and packed off, sacrificed for the political shimmying needed by Shia al-Sudani, as he dances between the US and those who want US troops out
Andrei Cojocaru
The UN Mission to Iraq, led by Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert (L), is to wind-down and wrap-up by December 2025 following a request from Iraq's prime minister (R).
United Nations exit from Iraq keeps Iran's braying clans at bay
In late May, Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani formally requested that the UN Mission to Iraq (known as the United Nations Assistance Mission to Iraq, or UNAMI) close its doors by the end of 2025.
The same month, the UN Security Council (UNSC) voted unanimously in favour of Baghdad’s request, despite a different timeline having originally been suggested by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
This would at first appear concerning, given the progress still to be made in UNAMI’s key mission areas. Yet Baghdad’s request—and the UNSC’s subsequent approval—speak to a widespread understanding of Sudani’s delicate dance between competing factions in his government.
Weaving between two
Iraqi politics feature a carefully navigated balance between those elements with closer strategic ties to Washington, and those elements who look first and foremost to Tehran.
People demonstrate in front of the UN headquarters following missile attacks by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in Erbil, Iraq, on January 16, 2024.
Faced with continuous calls for the removal of US troops from Iraqi soil by the latter, Sudani likely sees UNAMI’s exit as a more manageable win that can stave off the scalp Iran truly seeks.
Although the US would rather the UN stayed, its presence in Iraq is less impactful than the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve, which is fighting the remnants of Islamic State (IS), whose ferocious forays throughout the land are still fresh in Iraqi memory.
Sudani's request for the UN to leave speaks to a wider understanding of his delicate dance between competing factions in his government
Asking UNAMI to leave lets Sudani wield the narrative that he has pushed back against Western presence—winning crucial brownie points with Iraq's Shia Coordination Framework—while kicking the can of US withdrawal further down the road.
Additionally, and importantly, UNAMI's departure does not ruffle Washington's feathers. The US likely sees it as necessary for Sudani to save face and will support most measures that allow an ongoing US anti-IS engagement in Iraq.
The UN Mission's mission
UNAMI entered Iraq in 2003 after the US invasion, at the request of the Iraqi government. Its original focus was on reconstruction but, in 2007, in the face of growing sectarian violence and anti-coalition attacks, it expanded to more directly engage politically, economically, and on a humanitarian basis with Baghdad.
Its mission is therefore broader than originally planned, ranging from supporting democratic processes to generating regional dialogue and promoting human rights.
Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, when Special Representative of the Secretary-General for UNAMI, attends a conference in Baghdad on June 12, 2023.
UNAMI has also played the role of go-between for 22 UN humanitarian and development aid agencies and the Iraqi partners (both state and civil society groups) that use this aid.
It employs around 650 staff, most of whom are Iraqi, and has 245 troops from Nepal and Fiji, for security purposes.
Planning a UN departure
Upon renewing UNAMI's mandate in May 2023, UNSC Resolution 2682 called on the Secretary-General to complete an independent strategic review of the Mission and its progress.
Within this report, the Secretary-General approved a May 2026 UNAMI closure date plus a timeline that included performance-based indicators to assure minority groups in Iraq of acceptable progress towards democracy before UNAMI closed.
Sudani took umbrage with the review, saying it was not what he had in mind when he asked the UNSC to consider reducing UNAMI's mandate in his May 2023 letter.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in an interview with Reuters in Baghdad on January 9, 2024. He has to navigate between the rival interests in Iraq.
He wanted a December 2025 departure and for UNAMI's work to be limited to "economic reform, service delivery, sustainable development, climate change and other aspects of development" in the interim.
Only there if invited
The UNSC subsequently approved the earlier departure date in Iraq in large part because the UN commits to operating its Missions only at the host country's invitation.
Iraq is not alone in requesting the closure of a UN Mission in recent months. Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Mali have done likewise.
Each of these countries' circumstances are completely different, so direct comparisons should not be drawn, but the act of ordering the UN out can sometimes be a government's way of masking failures. In short, the Mission can become a scapegoat.
For instance, the UN is being at least partly blamed for the lack of noticeable improvements in local security in Somalia, the DRC, and Mali, while in Iraq, its exit is being used to satisfy anti-Western elements within the national government.
Caught in the middle
Sudani became Iraqi Prime Minister in October 2022, backed by the Iranian-aligned Shia Coordination Framework. It followed a yearlong political struggle between nationalist political parties and those backed by Iran after elections in October 2021.
In power, Sudani has slalomed between Iraq's relations with the US and Western-oriented institutions like the UN, NATO, and the EU (the latter two having active Missions in Iraq), and the Iran-aligned elements that put him in power in the first place.
Sudani has slalomed between the US and Western-oriented institutions, and the Iran-aligned elements that put him in power in the first place
This dance has been particularly challenging for Sudani given the permeance of Iranian proxies within the Iraqi armed forces (under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilisation Forces) and in parliament, under the Shia Coordination Framework.
For Iran-aligned figures and political parties, the presence of US troops in the country is their biggest single bugbear and a key pressure that has defined Sudani's premiership.
US-Iraq relations
Escalating tensions between US forces and Iran-aligned militias operating in Iraq has not helped. Since October 2023, there have been tit-for-tat strikes. This has left the Iraqi government and the Iraqi people in an uncomfortable and compromising position.
The UN Mission in Iraq began in 2003 following the US-led invasion and the ousting of former dictator Saddam Hussein.
Sudani has been under pressure to negotiate the US troop withdrawal, hence the start-up of the Higher Military Commission, and his repeated mention of this during the first visit to Washington to meet US President Joe Biden in April was purposeful.
Publicly, he has pushed for a fresh start to US-Iraq relations. More bilateral in nature and respectful of Iraqi sovereignty, he wants it to look beyond security, notably to trade.
Privately, Sudani has told US policymakers that he understands the role America plays in supporting the Iraqi military through Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR). The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) still cannot handle these counterterrorism operations alone.
Members of Iraq's Shi'ite paramilitaries launch a rocket towards Islamic State militants on the outskirts of the city of Falluja, in the province of Anbar, Iraq July 12, 2015.
Nor does Sudani want to lose the aid (almost $7m in the ten months to December 2023 alone) that goes to the Iraqi federal government on account of OIR.
As such, kicking UNAMI out should be seen as a visible demonstration of Iraqi sovereignty, to assuage certain Iran-aligned elements, while not yet acceding to their key demand: to kick the US out, too.
Issues post-UNAMI
Special envoy for Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, in the final address to the UNSC, said there were several key problems that UNAMI had not been able to resolve, notably the presence of illegal armed groups operating in the country, and the lack of elections in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
The issue of illegal armed groups is an open sore in US-Iraq relations, given that American troops operating in the country have faced more than 150 ballistic missile, rocket, and drone strikes since October 2023.
Kicking the UN out will assuage certain Iran-aligned elements, while not yet acceding to their key demand: to kick the US out, too
These strikes are launched by Iran-aligned militias under the 'Islamic Resistance of Iraq' banner. To-date, Baghdad seems incapable of controlling them. This should be of the utmost concern for Iraqis seeking a truly independent future after the UN leaves.
To a certain extent, this issue is connected to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), where all Kurdish political parties are against the departure of UNAMI.
Both Kurds and Sunnis fear it will only embolden the Shiite forces that now dominate Iraq and their associated militias that align with Tehran.
The potential ramifications of this have even united the feuding Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) ahead of the KRG's upcoming elections in September.
Seen from Washington
The US will weigh up UNAMI's exit carefully, looking to learn lessons from it. American worries align with those of the outgoing Special Representative, yet despite its hesitancy, the US still supports the end of UNAMI's mandate in 2025.
It even sponsored a resolution to prepare "a transition and liquidation plan" with the Iraqi government, because it supports the UN principle of leaving when countries no longer want it, even if there are good reasons not to. If the UN were to stop leaving when asked, it may stop being asked in the first place.
The US also sees this for what it is: a political 'win' that Sudani can give to his Iran-aligned supporters that does not come at the expense of US forces in Iraq.
What follows for UNAMI and Iraq in general is critical for America's future in the country. As things stand, Baghdad cannot effectively take on UNAMI's tasks. If that continues to be the case, there will be increased pressure to kick the Americans out.
UNAMI's exit will keep Sudani's hecklers quiet for a while, but he will know that kicking a can down the road does not make the can disappear. At some point, you come across it again. When that happens, Sudani will need to be sure that he is on the right road.
