Pakistan and Afghanistan in downward spiral after garrison attack

Islamabad described an "organised conspiracy" against Pakistan, highlighting a recent surge in terrorist attacks, particularly in the provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, in a cabinet meeting on 25 July, declared that Pakistan would not tolerate any cross-border attacks and urged the Afghan government to act against the TTP, which had resumed attacks after a ceasefire agreement with Pakistan ended in 2022.

Afghanistan has consistently denied harbouring members of the Pakistani Taliban and IS, but with reports of terrorist hideouts, tensions between the two nations have been exacerbated.

If you won't, we will

The Taliban's apparent inability to move against terrorist groups on its soil has prompted Pakistan to launch attacks against the hideouts itself, angering Kabul.

Last month, Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif confirmed its air force had struck terrorist group targets. The only previous admission was to a strike in March.

Furthermore, Asif said that Pakistan would continue its operations in Afghanistan, dismissing concerns over their legality or otherwise, instead highlighting the country's right to self-defence.

"We won't serve them with cake and pastries," he said. "If attacked, we'll attack back." He added that Pakistan does not inform the Taliban of impending action.

The Afghan Taliban's reaction has been sharp, describing the air strikes as violations of Afghan sovereignty and warning of "consequences" if they continued.

Defence Ministry spokesperson Enayatullah Khwarizmi condemned Asif's statements, labeling them irresponsible and a threat to regional stability.

The wider picture

Tensions have been rising between the neighbours since the Taliban took over in 2021. For Pakistan, its repeated requests for Kabul to stop the TTP from attacking Pakistan from inside Afghanistan have landed on deaf ears.

Pakistan's law enforcement agencies and Chinese nationals living in Pakistan are bearing the brunt of the TTP attacks.

Five Chinese engineers were killed when a suicide bomber rammed a convoy working on a hydropower project in northwest Pakistan in March. Pakistan's military said the attack was planned in Afghanistan and that the bomber was Afghan.

Islamabad says it has provided proof of TTP involvement and details of the group's hideouts in Afghanistan, but the Taliban government has not yet taken action.

Having the facts

Speaking to Al Majalla, Pakistan's former caretaker prime minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar said authorities knew the Afghan Taliban were not only turning a blind eye to the attacks, but "facilitating" them.

Kakar said 15 Afghan nationals had been involved in suicide attacks in Pakistan, while 64 had died in clashes with Pakistani law enforcement.

"Pakistan is in possession of irrefutable evidence of terrorists' hideouts in Afghanistan as well as the Taliban government's covert support to them," he said. "We have shared all this with Kabul time and again, but in vain."

The situation has been further complicated by a report from the United Nations in July supporting Pakistan's allegations. It describes the TTP as the "largest terrorist group" in Afghanistan, with up to 6,500 fighters.

The UN said TTP had support and training from Al-Qaeda, raising concerns about the potential for increased violence and instability in the region. It also detailed allegations of weapons and money transfers from the Taliban to the TTP.

Extra-regional threat

The report by the UN Sanctions Monitoring Team, released on 10 July, said the Taliban maintained that there are no foreign terrorist groups in Afghanistan other than ISKP.

However, it added that "member states reported that over two dozen groups still operate in the country, enjoying freedom of manoeuvre under the de facto authorities, with oversight from the General Directorate of Intelligence".

It also expressed concern over greater collaboration between TTP and Al-Qaeda, as this could transform TTP into an "extra-regional threat", adding that TTP tactics had shifted towards high-profile attacks against hard targets.

The report highlighted weapon transfers to TTP as well as the release of IS prisoners from local jails after securing their consent to join the banned Pakistani militant network.

"One member state detailed how the Taliban exerts pressure on TTP through funding, reportedly paying a monthly sum ($50,500) to TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud while also directing him to garner additional sources of revenue."

Response and mediation

Pakistan has now launched a new military operation aimed at curbing the escalating violence and targeting terrorist groups operating within its borders.

But some analysts suggest that this was launched under pressure from Beijing, which has voiced concerns about the safety of its citizens working on projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The world is watching, as Pakistan grapples with the terrorist threat and the complex geopolitical dynamics with Afghanistan, given that both countries have significant strategic and security interests.

With diplomatic channels strained and military actions escalating, a more significant conflict appears possible, yet this could destabilise much of South Asia.

The Bannu attack and subsequent events have highlighted the deep-seated issues between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the situation remains highly volatile, with potential repercussions further afield.

International mediation to address the tensions will be crucial in preventing further escalation and ensuring a path toward peace and stability.