Upon signing the North Atlantic Treaty in 1949, then-US President Harry Truman described the landmark creation of NATO as a 'neighbourly act' for mutual protection. 'We are like a group of householders.'
Fast-forward to 2018, and an existential threat to the alliance was posed by the United States—the same country that played the most crucial role in establishing the key international military organisation and remained supportive of its mission and principles for many decades. It came precisely from another US president, Donald Trump, who consistently claimed during his tenure that NATO allies were ‘ripping us off’ by not meeting the 2% defence spending budget.
With Trump looking poised for re-election, he has made statements on his campaign trail that are as shocking as the ones he made six years ago. He said he would encourage Russia to 'do whatever the hell they want' with the NATO countries that have not so far met the spending target.
Genuine concern
This has sparked legitimate concerns in Europe that another term in office for Trump could see the US shift its focus from the continent and the raging war in Ukraine to a country that Trump and also incumbent President Joe Biden have been keeping under the financial, economic and military radar: China.
Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg dealt tactfully and resiliently with Trump’s immense pressures. The seasoned diplomat and former prime minister of Norway met with Trump at the White House in 2018, which also played a huge role in defusing the tension. On the sidelines of the summit in Washington, D.C., I asked a senior NATO official how the alliance would tackle its relationship with the United States if Trump were to become president.
"To the vast majority of Americans, the benefits of a successful alliance like NATO as we are celebrating 75 years of its creation are remarkably clear; namely, it has successfully deterred any attack on a NATO state," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"I think that the American people understand that Europe is generally meeting or exceeding the defence spending threshold, and it’s important to be part of this alliance."
Foreign policy preview?
There are strong indications from Trump’s press statements during his campaign trail that his second term (if elected) would be as disruptive as his first one. On Ukraine, he said he can end the war “in 24 hours”. On China, he said he would impose tariffs on Chinese exports again if they could exceed 60%. On Israel’s war on Gaza, he said it was ‘taking a long time’, and Israel had to ‘Get it over with and get it over with fast.’
Republican legislators have already blocked vital funding for Ukraine several times, which Kyiv’s allies saw as a key factor in the country’s recent territorial losses. The fears that Trump’s ‘America First’ policy will eclipse the US's historical central role in Europe’s security are real and could trigger a sense of insecurity in NATO and other international organisations who fear that Trump will undermine them.
Under the previous Trump administration, the US became the first country in the world to formally withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. It cut funding to the United Nations relief agency for Palestinian refugees, withdrew from the United Nations’ cultural organisation UNESCO, citing “anti-Israel bias”, and formally started the process of pulling the US out of the World Health Organisation (WHO), accusing it of mismanaging the COVID-19 pandemic when it broke out in China.
