In lieu of formal membership, Nato offers Ukraine a string of guarantees

Sweden’s Nato membership and Turkey’s purchase of new F-16 fighter jets from the United States seem to have been included in a bigger package deal negotiated during the summit

Allied leaders stand for a group photo at the Nato summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.
AFP
Allied leaders stand for a group photo at the Nato summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

In lieu of formal membership, Nato offers Ukraine a string of guarantees

Vilnius hosted the Nato Summit on 11-12 July with not only heads of state of Allied nations in attendance but also non-member states such as Ukraine, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand and Japan, present as cooperation partners.

The most pressing agenda was, of course, the war in Ukraine and related developments.

A year and a half after Moscow's decision to invade Ukraine, Russia is nowhere near its goal of taking control over its neighbouring country. However, with neither side able to secure a clear upper hand, the war continues to drag out and take a massive human and economic toll on all key stakeholders.

Nato is firmly on the side of Ukraine against Russia, which was reiterated in the Vilnius Summit declaration as “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.”

Nato and Allied nations continue providing military assistance to Ukraine and have imposed sanctions on Moscow, to help Kyiv in its fight. There has even been talk about Washington providing cluster bombs to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already submitted a formal application to join the Alliance. Nato has acknowledged it but did not send a formal invitation, since admitting Ukraine into Nato amid the ongoing fighting would oblige the group to intervene under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.

Ukraine gets security guarantees

In lieu of granting Ukraine formal membership, creative diplomacy deployed at the summit laid the groundwork for a closer relationship with Ukraine.

Nato leaders agreed to have Ukraine in the Alliance “when allies agree and conditions are met” and to bring Ukraine as close as possible to the Alliance without having it officially join.

Even though the Secretary General of Nato Jens Stoltenberg said in Vilnius that Nato conveyed “a strong, united message from Allies on Ukraine’s path to Nato membership," no timetable was set, much to Zelensky's disappointment.

In that regard, they agreed on the following:

  1. Ukraine’s future place in the Alliance has been reaffirmed.
  2. Ukraine has received more pledges of support.
  3. Ukraine will have a fast track, bypassing the membership action plan.
  4. Nato-Ukraine Council, where Allies and Ukraine sit as equal members, has been established.

AFP
US President Joe Biden delivers a speech next to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during an event with G7 leaders to announce a Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine during the Nato Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

But to make up for it, G7 states — all leading Nato members plus Japan — came up with a set of security guarantees for Ukraine, which was appreciated by President Zelensky.

In lieu of granting Ukraine formal membership, creative diplomacy deployed at the summit laid the groundwork for a closer relationship with Ukraine. All leading Nato members plus Japan — came up with a set of security guarantees for Kyiv.

Russia has yet to formally react to the summit, apart from the Kremlin spokesperson stating that Moscow was following the summit of an "organisation which treats Russia as an enemy very closely."

Russia has long regarded Nato's eastward expansion as a direct threat and declared Ukraine's Nato membership as a red line. It has cited this issue as being one of the drivers for launching the war on its neighbour.

Vilnius was the first summit where Finland participated as a member. With Finland the latest country to join, Nato now has an extra 1,340 kilometres of common border with Russia.

Erdoğan withdraws veto on Sweden membership

Several days before the summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan acknowledged that Sweden had taken some steps in the right direction, such as changing its anti-terror laws, but was still not at a point of being welcomed into the Alliance by Turkey.

This was followed by the Quran burning incident in Stockholm which made things even more difficult for Sweden's membership venture.

AFP
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky attend a meeting of the Nato-Ukraine Council during the Nato Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

However, just before flying to Vilnius, Erdoğan said: "I appeal to the countries that have kept Turkey waiting at the doors of the European Union for more than 50 years, pave the way for Turkey in the European Union, and then we will pave the way for Sweden's Nato membership, just as we paved the way for Finland."

With that, Sweden's membership bid gained a new dimension.

Stoltenberg, Erdoğan, and Sweden's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson met a day before the summit in Vilnius and despite steep tension, the leader surprisingly reached an agreement: Turkey had formally lifted its objection to Sweden's membership.

On his part, Hungary's foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, said: "The completion of the ratification process is now only a technical question." This means Hungary also dropped its objections to Swedish membership.

As the next step, Sweden's accession protocol will be submitted to the Turkish parliament for approval.

Sweden's Nato membership, Turkey's relations with the European Union and Turkey's purchase of new F-16 fighter jets and modernisation kits from the United States seem to have been included in a bigger package deal.

Sweden's Nato membership, Turkey's relations with the European Union and Turkey's purchase of new F-16 fighter jets and modernisation kits from the United States seem to have been included in a bigger package deal

It is as if there is an understanding that progress on all these issues will move on parallel tracks. Several statements from the US and the EU have given the impression to the Turks that the US Congress may be more prone to giving the green light to the sale of F-16s and the EU may start discussing issues such as visa liberalisation and modernisation of the customs union with Turkey.

Turkey's relations with the West would have deteriorated further if Sweden's membership issue was not solved and Erdoğan cannot afford to risk that as he struggles to get Turkey's ailing economy back on track.

Read more: Can Erdoğan turn Turkey's ailing economy around?

The reportedly smooth and positive meeting between Erdoğan and Biden on the sidelines of the summit lent credibility to these speculations.

AFP
US President Joe Biden (R) and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hold bilateral talks the Nato Summit in Vilnius on July 11, 2023

Diplomatic coup for Erdoğan

The Vilnius Summit, in general, was viewed as a diplomatic coup for Turkey. Erdoğan's diplomatic manoeuvring, for now at least, presented good material for his propagandists to use as yet another proof of his brinkmanship in international relations and diplomacy.

How long the parliamentary process for ratification of Sweden's membership into Nato will take, as well as whether or not the US and EU will make good on their promises, remains to be seen.

That being said, recent negative developments between Turkey and Russia may also have been met positively in the West.

Zelensky's visit to Turkey, Erdoğan's statements of strong support to Ukraine, and the return of Azov commanders to their home country are all likely reasons behind the cancellation of Putin's upcoming visit to Turkey.

Recent negative developments between Turkey and Russia have been met positively in the West. Zelensky's visit to Turkey and Erdoğan's statements of strong support to Ukraine is likely why Putin cancelled his upcoming visit to Turkey.

Looking at the Vilnius Summit communique, the diverse challenges and the range of issues for Nato can be seen clearly.

Commitment to defence spending

Nato needs sufficient financial resources to deliver on its commitments but Allies are in the throes of a global economic crisis, making things more difficult. 

Even so, Nato leaders committed to spending at least 2% of their annual GDP on defence. Whether members can make good on this pledge is yet to be determined.

Despite mounting concerns over China, including "its ambitions and coercive policies challenging Nato's interests, security and values" and "its relations with Russia",  the summit's declaration for remaining open to constructive engagement with China, is worth noting.

Ukraine is not the only challenge threatening peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic region.

Riots in France, domestic strifes such as the Wagner rebellion in Russia, sinking boats, drowning refugees by their hundreds and rising extremism on all fronts have also become pressing issues.

From the broader security perspective, these problems and many others are also relevant to Nato objectives and missions.

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