Public opinion polls on upcoming elections in Britain and France reveal a lot about the right of the far right in Europe. In Britain, the Conservatives seem to be on the decline following 14 years of uncontested rule, with the Labour Party showing a 20-point increase. And, in France, polls indicate that the far-right National Rally is leading its left-wing New Popular Front rival by 7.9 points.
French far-right movements have made significant strides in electoral contests in previous years. A notable instance was in the 2002 presidential elections when their candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen advanced to the second round against Jacques Chirac—a prominent Gaullist figure. For the first time, traditional French parties accustomed to the longstanding rivalry between Socialists and Gaullists were dealt a significant blow, signalling a profound shift in French society.
Two lacklustre presidencies followed: Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande. For its part, the current presidency under Emmanuel Macron has been plagued by the Yellow Vest movement, other social justice protests, and anti-police riots that spread from the suburbs to the heart of Paris.
Recent legislative elections gave the National Rally a whopping 88 seats, and the party is slated to expand its influence even further. If the polls hold true, Rally leader Jordan Bardella could vie for the position of prime minister if he can pull together a political coalition.
In Britain, the Conservative Party has been plagued by scandals and controversies, including premature speculation by its candidates on the election date before party leader and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced it.