If there is one thing the world does not need right now, it is another flashpoint involving nuclear weapons, seething nationalism, wounded pride, and hot tempers.
This is already a dangerous and uncertain time, wracked by a period of political unrest and military conflict that is straining an international world order that has, since 1945, managed to keep most wars to a localised minimum.
Suddenly, in the space of two years, Europe’s east has had a major ground war to contend with in Ukraine, while the Middle East has convulsed at the devastation in Gaza, compounded with the first direct conflict between Israel and Iran.
The way the world deals with major military conflict now has more shortcomings than strengths, revealing how the post-war international system has prematurely aged. The impulse to solve problems has been replaced by the impulse to fight.
Yet the above may pale in comparison to the almighty rupture that would be caused by an increasingly militaristic China (official name: the People’s Republic of China) if it invades and seeks to occupy Taiwan (official name: the Republic of China).
China has made no secret of its views: it sees Taiwan not as an independent, democratic, sovereign state (as it and the West does), but as a breakaway province that must be reunited with the mainland.
There have long been fears that the world’s two most powerful militaries—the United States and China—could clash over this island of the coast of Fujian province. It would clearly be a major threat to regional and global stability.
Ballots and battleships
Taiwan’s independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by Lai Ching-te, gained significant support at the ballot box in January. This has set the stage for a deeper confrontation between the governments in Taipei and Beijing.
China has explicitly expressed its concerns over the DPP’s presidential victory, and Lai Ching-te is having to navigate heightened tensions, as well as a Taiwanese parliament that is dominated by pro-China parties.
In his inauguration speech, Lai said Taiwan was a de facto sovereign nation and called on China “to cease their political and military intimidation, share the global responsibility of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait as well as the greater region, and ensure the world is free from the fear of war”.
By way of response, Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a three-day military exercise named Operation Joint Sword, in which the army and coast guard simulated an amphibious attack on—and siege of—Taiwan, cutting off all means of communication with the island.
Commander Shi Yi, of the PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command, said the exercise was to test its ability to “control the battlefield, launch joint strikes, and control vital areas”. Yet while this may be an escalatory atmosphere, it is not merely a reaction to the DPP securing a third term. For a better understanding, it helps to consider the context.
Colonialism then nationalism
Taiwan’s 20th century was marked by two distinct cycles of political development. The first half-century was marked by Japanese colonial rule, which lasted from 1895-1945, while the latter half-century saw the dominance of nationalists who emigrated from mainland China.
Initially, both the colonial and nationalist systems operated independently, with little integration into local society. Both regimes succeeded in fostering loyalty, compliance, control of society, mobilisation, and political organisation.
This social and political modernisation provided a crucial source of legitimacy for the regimes that governed Taiwan for a century. Under the rule of the nationalists, Taiwan’s national political system was solidified.
