Biden's ceasefire plan for Gaza falls flat ahead of G7 summit

On the eve of the UN vote, Blinken sent a message to leaders in the region to this effect: "If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say yes."

Washington's confidence that it had Israel's backing for the ceasefire initiative was reflected in the UN resolution, which stated that Israel had accepted the ceasefire proposal and urged Hamas to agree to it, too. But while the UN's backing for the ceasefire deal undoubtedly adds legitimacy to Washington's latest diplomatic effort, the prospects of it achieving the desired breakthrough remain challenging, not least because both the Israelis and Hamas still appear to be at odds over the terms they are prepared to accept.

The broad outline of the latest ceasefire plan envisages a first phase involving a hostage-prisoner swap and a short-term ceasefire. If successfully implemented, this would be followed by a second phase that includes a "permanent end to hostilities" and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Once this is completed, the third phase would focus on the enclave's long-term outlook, with the commencement of an ambitious reconstruction plan for Gaza.

But while there is now a broad consensus in place among global leaders to end the war in Gaza, getting the deal over the line is proving to be immensely problematic, as Blinken found during his latest visit to the region.

While the Biden administration continues to insist that the deal has Israel's backing, there have already been suggestions that hard right members of Netanyahu's cabinet are deeply opposed to its implementation and would resign from the Israeli government, thereby collapsing the Israeli government and forcing a new round of elections.

For their part, Hamas representatives have submitted amendments to the deal. Hamas spokesman Jihad Taha said the response included "amendments that confirm the ceasefire, withdrawal, reconstruction and (prisoner) exchange." Hamas officials have expressed wariness over whether Israel would fulfil its terms, particularly provisions for an eventual permanent end to the fighting and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in return for the release of all hostages held by the militants.

Read more: Exclusive: Hamas amendments to Biden's plan

The Israeli response to Hamas's amendments has similarly prompted a hostile response from the Israelis, with one senior Israeli official claiming that the changes suggested by Hamas, which are believed to include the demand that Israeli forces withdraw completely from Gaza, means that the Hamas leadership has rejected the ceasefire and hostage deal proposal.

Diplomatic efforts to achieve a breakthrough on the ceasefire issue will now focus on the G7 summit in Italy, where Biden will urge fellow G7 leaders to support ceasefire negotiations and encourage Hamas to accept the proposal, according to White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

Key stumbling block

Whether backing from G7 leaders can help to break the impasse, though, remains open to question so long as the key stumbling block to the ceasefire talks remains unresolved, namely persuading the Netanyahu government to end its military offensive in Gaza.

While Israel says it supports the ceasefire plan, Netanyahu's main goal is to secure the release of the 120 or so Israeli hostages still being held by Hamas. At the same time, he has indicated that he has no intention of ending Israel's military offensive in Gaza until Hamas is completely destroyed.

Hamas, meanwhile, is demanding that Israel both end its military operations and undertake a complete withdrawal from Gaza as part of any ceasefire deal, with Blinken saying that some of the changes were "unworkable." Hamas responded by claiming that the US was siding with the Israelis in the ceasefire negotiations.

Certainly, if any genuine progress is to be made in implementing a ceasefire in Gaza, then world leaders must find a way to resolve this seemingly immutable issue of persuading the Israelis to end their military offensive in Gaza and withdraw their forces.