It may not be full-on détente, but China and the United States are entering a new, tentatively positive diplomatic moment. New channels of communication appear to be stabilising a mutual downward spiral between the two superpowers that threatened to propel them inevitably toward conflict.
The latest channel to reopen is likely to come next month when US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin is set to meet his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, for the first time at the IISS Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore. US-Chinese preparatory discussions for the meeting have been taking place over recent weeks, even as relations remain strained.
Perhaps more significant is the prospect of another new communications channel, namely between the heads of the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) and China’s Eastern Theater Command. Were Beijing and Washington to fight a war over Taiwan, these two figures would lead military operations for each respective side. A military-to-military meeting between the two is unlikely to produce diplomatic breakthroughs. But the fact that it could happen at all is a welcome development—and, given recent years of frosty silence, a somewhat surprising one.
In recent years, the Singapore conference has turned into a temperature gauge for Sino-US competition, much like the Munich Security Conference measures the pulse of Western relations with Russia. The last two Shangri La Dialogues took place against a backdrop of rapidly worsening Sino-US ties, driven by incidents like the balloon farrago in early 2022.
Defence ministers from China and the United States did not even meet one-on-one in 2023, making do with a perfunctory handshake at dinner. This year, the mood music will be different: Sino-US relations have improved over the last 12 months, albeit from a perilously low base, so that the two ministers are likely to avoid using their speeches as bully pulpits to escalate tensions. (Disclosure: Until last year, I led the team in Singapore that organises the event.)
Instead, this year’s focus in Singapore will be on Southeast Asia, given the recent clashes at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. Here, China’s coast guard has deployed water cannons against Philippines vessels seeking to supply the Sierra Madre, a World War II-era landing ship that Manila ran aground on the reef more than two decades ago.
The reef itself lies within the Philippines’ recognised exclusive economic zone but is also inside China’s expansive “nine-dash line” claims over much of the region. Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who will speak at the conference, is clearly annoyed at China’s actions. But he is irked by his neighbours in Southeast Asia, too. Some of these also face Chinese incursions but are much too cowed by China to offer Manila support.
Behind the scenes, however, attention will focus on developing military dynamics between the United States and China—and on the possible new military channel in particular. The idea of a direct link between INDOPACOM and the People’s Liberation Army has long been in the works. At their November 2023 meeting in Woodside, California, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed that a link should be established. US Navy Admiral John Aquilino, who recently stepped down as INDOPACOM head, then tried repeatedly to set it up. Much to his evident frustration, China’s military never replied to his requests.
That may now change. Aquilino’s successor, US Navy Admiral Samuel Paparo, took over last month. The arrival of a new commander, in combination with the upcoming defence ministers’ meeting in Singapore, should create space for high-level military-to-military dialogue to begin. It isn’t yet clear what format this dialogue would take and even who the Chinese interlocutor would be.
This month, US Assistant Secretary of Defence Ely Ratner spoke to his counterpart, Major General Li Bin, in the Chinese Central Military Commission. According to the US readout of the conversation, Ratner suggested that China’s Southern and Eastern theatre commanders both be included in regular calls. But if there is to be only one channel, the United States hopes it will be with China’s Eastern theatre commander, who leads its military in the crucial areas around Taiwan, rather than its Southern theatre command, which focuses on the South China Sea.
Over recent years, communication between the US and Chinese militaries has been meagre to nonexistent. Aquilino did speak to Chinese officials at a meeting in Fiji in 2023. There was also a low-level meeting in early April when Chinese military representatives travelled to Hawaii to meet counterparts from INDOPACOM for what is known as the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement working group, a technical discussion group on operational safety. A second such meeting in China is now likely. But there has been little high-level communication—and none whatsoever between the most important US and Chinese military commanders in the region.
