Al-Assad's presence at the Arab Summit and absence at Raisi's funeral

Additionally, the Syrian government has verbal and written instructions to reduce dealings with Iranian institutions, and the level of mutual visits between the two sides has significantly subsided in recent months. In fact, Raisi's planned visit to Damascus was postponed several times earlier this year.

Conversely, Syria's relations and interactions with Arab states are thriving despite underlying tensions, particularly between Damascus and Amman. In fact, an Arab ministerial meeting with Syria, supposed to take place in Baghdad on 8 May, was cancelled at Jordan's request.

Fresh opportunity

However, the recent meeting between Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad and his Jordanian counterpart Ayman Safadi in Manama presents a fresh opportunity for both countries to implement their respective commitments outlined in the "roadmap".  Saudi Arabia's appointment of an ambassador also boosts reconciliation efforts aimed at addressing outstanding issues.

And in Washington, yet another significant development has unfolded. In what seems to be a carrot-and-stick approach, the White House has asked Congress to retract a proposed bill opposing Arab normalisation with al-Assad. Meanwhile, the US legislative body is expected to renew sanctions on the Syrian regime via the Caesar Act at the end of the year. Biden also signed another bill targeting the Captagon trade into law to keep up the pressure.

Read more: Biden gets another chance to dismantle Syria's drug trade

For its part, Europe's stance on Damascus is increasingly divided. While France, Germany, and the UK maintain a stringent approach, and trials against Syrian officials are being conducted in various capitals, other nations such as Italy, Cyprus, and Greece have progressed towards diplomatic normalisation with Damascus. Notably, a senior Czech official visited Damascus in late April, marking the first such visit in a decade. Meanwhile, European envoys have made discreet visits to Damascus in recent years.

These developments are all part of a synchronised strategy in a region undergoing normalisation drives on multiple fronts. To this end, the US and several European countries have opened the lines of communication with Damascus, while Arab states are pursuing a strategy in line with their regional interests.

In summary, by participating in the Arab Summit and not showing up for Raisi's funeral, Syria carefully navigates between the "Arab embrace" and the "Iranian alliance". Its silence in Manama and over Israeli strikes on Syrian territory speaks volumes.