Listen to Michigan: Arab Americans flex voting muscles to pressure Biden on Gaza

In this context, Mayor Abdullah Hamoud of Dearborn, a member of the Democratic Party himself, remarked, "In the past three federal elections, Arab American voters in Michigan have become a crucial and dependable voting bloc for the Democratic Party, and we were part of the wave that delivered for Joe Biden four years ago."

"But this fact seems long forgotten by our candidate as he calls for our votes once more while at the same time selling the very bombs that Benjamin Netanyahu's military is dropping on our family and friends."

Hamoud is actively involved in the campaign orchestrated by Arab Americans in collaboration with leftist organisations in the state under the banner of "Listen to Michigan." This campaign advocates abstaining from voting for Biden and opting for an uncommitted vote in the elections.

His statements reflect a prevailing sentiment among Arab Americans not only in Michigan but also in other states like New York, California, and Illinois, where significant Arab communities are situated.

This sentiment is one of disillusionment and bitterness towards the Biden administration. However, it's only in Michigan that Arab Americans can wield influence over the outcome of the presidential elections in the upcoming November.

Still, they may potentially be able to deny Biden a second presidential term if they choose not to vote for him, as the "Listen to Michigan" campaign aims to achieve.

According to preliminary figures, this campaign has exceeded the threshold of 100,000 participants, representing 13% of the total voter turnout in the Democratic primary elections in the state. These statistics signify an initial triumph for a campaign with the potential for further growth in the months ahead.

Read more: Will Michigan's primary protest vote spread to other states?

National significance

The electoral significance of Arab Americans stems from Michigan's status as a swing state, meaning it is undecided for either of the major parties, Democratic or Republican.

In the 2016 presidential elections, Trump clinched victory in the state by an exceedingly slim margin, edging out his competitor, Hillary Clinton, by a mere 10,704 votes.

This secured all 16 of Michigan's electoral votes, which determine the winner of the presidential race regardless of the popular vote outcome.

However, in the 2020 elections, as part of the expansive electoral mobilisation orchestrated by the Democratic Party in the state, with Arab Americans playing a significant role, Biden managed to triumph over Trump by a margin of 155,000 votes — a narrow margin in a state where approximately six million people cast their votes.

According to 2020 statistics, residents with ancestral ties to the Middle East and North Africa total approximately 310,000 individuals, representing roughly 3.1% of the state's total population.

Growing concern

This suggests that if Arab Americans boycott polls in November, they could potentially impact Biden's chances of winning in a fiercely contested presidential race, where swing states play a pivotal role in determining the outcome, as was the case in the 2016 election.

Concerns regarding the potential impact of an Arab boycott in Michigan are weighing heavily on the Biden campaign.

This prompted the White House to dispatch envoys to the state to engage with Arab leaders, including Hamoud. The aim was to elucidate the administration's efforts to halt the Gaza conflict and restrain Israel, thereby persuading Arab Americans to support Biden.

However, it appears that these meetings did not yield the desired results.

The White House's announcement, made before the primary, regarding its active efforts to secure a ceasefire during Ramadan also did not seem to have a significant impact and was viewed as an attempt to dissuade Arab Americans from casting their uncommitted vote at the polls.

Biden's window of opportunity seems to be quickly closing, with only a few months left to end the Gaza conflict and subsequently focus earnestly on the political, security, and reconstruction measures for the "Day After."

While it's possible that he can turn things around and save his presidency, he must act quickly.

The Democratic Party's general conference, slated for August in Chicago, will be when the Democratic Party officially declares  Biden's nomination. By then, it could be too late for Arab Americans to change their minds.