IRGC withdrawal from Syria is nothing more than staged theatre

'Persian project' alive and well

Therefore, the withdrawal of a few IRGC officers from Syria should be viewed with a grain of salt and seen as a strategic move to cool regional tensions at a turbulent time. It does not signal a shift in Iranian policy, nor does it mean a complete military disengagement from Syria.

Before the report on the supposed withdrawal emerged, Al Majalla had already published official leaked Iranian documents which detailed a slew of agreements between Damascus and Tehran.

These documents leave no room for doubt that Iran has no plans to withdraw from Syria. Iranian involvement in Syrian affairs extends far beyond the deployment of a few senior Revolutionary Guard officers.

Its influence permeates various sectors, including education, with its presence in universities and schools, religious institutions, cultural heritage sites, and the economic sphere, through control over significant investments, economic facilities, and demographic changes through population displacement and replacement.

Secret documents have also shed light on Iran's ambitions concerning Jordan. Syria serves as a strategic passageway to the Mediterranean, Lebanon, and, importantly, Jordan, which looks to be Iran's next target following its consolidation of control in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

The daily smuggling of Captagon shipments and weapons from Syria into Jordan is just one tactic employed by Tehran to exert influence over Jordan. King Abdullah II of Jordan, who in 2004 was among the first to caution against Iran's regional ambitions, explicitly termed it the "Persian project."

Furthermore, these documents discuss the US "presence" in Syria, highlighting the significance of a corridor that links Iran to Iraq and Syria.

They point out that the American base at Al-Tanf obstructs Tehran's access to the Mediterranean, underlining the strategic implications of the US military's location in relation to Iran's broader regional objectives.

A bad investment

The opposition group Revolution to Overthrow the Regime, which hacked the Iranian presidency's website, revealed that Iran's financial commitment in Syria over a decade amounted to more than $50bn. However, the deals made with Syria to recoup this expenditure fall short, totalling no more than $18bn.

The documents also reveal Iran's strategy to bolster the relationship between Bashar al-Assad's regime and its Arab neighbours. They detail Iran's mediation through Baghdad aimed at reintegrating the Syrian regime into the Arab League.

This reintegration gives Iran increased influence within the league and also serves Tehran's interests by alleviating the economic pressures on the al-Assad regime. Iran hopes that Arab League nations can help campaign for the lifting of sanctions imposed on Syria.

The information that has come to light is just a fraction of what remains concealed.

Staged theatre

Yet, this exposed portion clearly indicates that a country investing heavily, forming numerous militias, and deploying senior officers to Syria will not simply withdraw based on statements, requests, or wishful thinking. Nor will it retract through limited, pre-arranged strikes conducted by one of its branches.

The true pathway for Iran to disengage from Syria starts with removing the man who facilitated its deep entrenchment in the first place: Bashar al-Assad. 

Acknowledging that such a step is unlikely in the immediate future also means recognising that Iran's withdrawal from Syria is far from imminent. The reassignment of an officer or the retirement of another is no more than staged theatre.