Ukraine war enters new phase with Russia in driver's seat

The new fortifications are part of what military analysts describe as Ukraine's "active defence", which has been deemed necessary because of the changing nature of the conflict on the ground in Ukraine, one where the Russians may be on the point of seizing the initiative. 

This significant shift in Ukrainian tactics was signalled by President Volodymyr Zelensky late last year when he announced Ukraine was "significantly enhancing" its fortifications.

This has resulted in the defensive lines around the important Donetsk towns of Lyman and Avdiivka receiving a significant upgrade, as well as Kupiansk in the neighbouring Kharkiv region.

Construction of new fortifications has also been taking place along the country's borders with Russia and Belarus, all the way to its frontier with its Western ally Poland, an indication that the Ukrainians still believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin may attempt to open a new front in his relentless quest to achieve victory in Ukraine.

New phase

All the indications from Moscow certainly suggest that the war is entering a new phase, one where Russia has the initiative, and Ukraine is struggling to match its more powerful neighbour in terms of manpower and firepower.

Read more: Ukraine war far from over

This was clearly evident following the latest barrage of missile attacks Russia launched against Ukraine earlier this week when the Russians launched an estimated 41 missiles at Ukrainian targets.

While Ukraine's air defences managed to shoot down 21 of the missiles, the other succeeded in reaching their targets, killing at least seven people and wounding around 60 others. The attacks mainly targeted the capital, Kyiv, as well as the city of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine.

The recent upsurge in Russian missile and drone attacks has prompted Kyiv to call on its NATO allies to help improve its air defences, with Ukrainian officials said to be asking in particular for air defence systems such as Patriots, IRIS-T and NASAMS. 

With the ground war locked in a stalemate, the Ukrainians are also keen to expand their arsenal of long-range missiles, including extra supplies of the UK's long-range Storm Shadow missiles, which have proved highly effective at targeting Russian naval assets in the Black Sea.

Ukraine's ability to conduct long-range attacks resulted in a Ukrainian drone blowing up a Russian oil terminal in the Black Sea on Wednesday night.

Ally fatigue

Even so, with the conflict marking 700 days since Putin launched his invasion in February 2022, Kyiv finds itself under increasing pressure from its allies, where war fatigue is resulting in a number of key allies questioning their ability to continue supporting the Ukrainian cause.

Read more: Russian resilience tests Western patience for Ukraine war

This is particularly true in the US, where the Biden administration is under pressure from Republican opponents in Congress to scale down the level of US support.

Biden has requested $61.4 bn in additional military funding for Ukraine as well as for replenishing US stocks in Ukraine. The funds sought for Ukraine are part of a supplemental funding request, including $14.3bn for Israel and $13.6bn for US border protection.

While the US continues to play a prominent role within the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, bringing together partners to discuss support for Ukraine's military, Biden's leadership is being undermined by Republican opposition to signing off the new aid package for Ukraine.

Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said that while the United States is committed to Ukraine, lawmakers need to pass more funding for Kyiv as it battles Russian forces.

"Our partners, our allies continue to do that, despite the fact that we do not have a supplemental (funding bill) that's been passed by Congress," Singh told a recent press conference.

In these circumstances, with Ukraine's military effort moving to the defensive and Western support for Kyiv on the wane, the Ukrainian forces' hopes of achieving a decisive outcome in this long-running conflict are fading by the day.