War and currency devaluation deter migrants from seeking livelihood in Russia

Foreign workers are avoiding Russia as the rouble weakens and war adds new danger

Nash Weerasekera

Workers in former Soviet states have long headed for work over the border, but migrants ending up in the army are now a deterrent and alongside lower wages, jobs are now on offer elsewhere.

War and currency devaluation deter migrants from seeking livelihood in Russia

Nazareth Seferian

last update on 12 Nov 2023

Mets Mantash is a village of around 2,500 people in Armenia. The main economic activity is agricultural – growing cheap agricultural products like potatoes and carrots – and is not enough to make a living.

This means most men consider leaving, hoping to earn more abroad, often heading for Russia for several months of the year.

One of them – Vagharshak Sukoyan, who is over 50 years old – told Radio Liberty in the spring of this year that he was considering an offer of work to rebuild the city of Mariupol, which Russia has occupied during its ongoing war with Ukraine. “If they pay the price I want, I’ll go,” he said.

But the same programme revealed that not all his neighbours share such intentions. Another villager, Vardan Narimanyan, explained why: “Their currency is not worth the same anymore. I have many acquaintances there calling me over to work, but I’ve told them no, for now. It’s the exchange rate, and all the oligarchs have left the country. There isn’t as much money there as before.”

This raises an essential question with potentially wide-ranging implications: Is labour migration in Russia on the decline following its invasion of Ukraine, even from Moscow’s long-standing allies?

Reuters — A young man waves a Russian flag in Red Square before a rally to mark the one-year anniversary of Russia's annexation of four regions in Ukraine, in Moscow, Russia September 29, 2023.

The official picture

There is a clear answer from official numbers, but they might not reveal the full picture.

Earlier this year, the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System – YEMISS in the Russian abbreviation – published statistics from the first quarter of 2023. They proudly stated that the number of labour migrants into the country was up by 60% in the first quarter of 2023, year-on-year, to 1.3 million.

Almost half of these migrants were from Uzbekistan, with around 350,000 from Tajikistan. There were also significant numbers of such migrants from Kyrgyzstan (172,591), Armenia (47,337) and Kazakhstan (34,783).

But put into a wider context, the latest numbers look less flattering.

In 2022, Labour migration hit its lowest level outside years featuring Covid-19 restrictions and was down 15% compared with 2019, before the pandemic hit when 1.16 million people came to Russia to work. The 2022 low point coincided with the uncertainty following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

And there are other limits to the story the government data can tell. It tracks the number of legal work permits issued when there are also people working without paperwork, while some who have it fill more than one job.

In 2022, Labour migration hit its lowest level, down 15% compared with 2019, before the pandemic hit when 1.16 million people came to Russia to work. The 2022 low point coincided with the uncertainty following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Juggling jobs

Nikolai Kurdyumov, Chairman of the Commission on Labour Migration, part of Russia's Chamber of Commerce, told the newspaper Izvestia that while such migrants are officially estimated to make up 5% of the total labour market in the country, the real figure is probably considerably higher.

He also said these migrants may not always be filling the most pressing gaps in the Russian economy:

"They take on three or four jobs – as recommended by their fellow compatriots working in Russia – so that they can make the most money. But that often means that they do not end up working where they are needed the most."

AFP — Pedestrians walk past a currency exchange office in the snow in central Moscow on October 27, 2023.

Overall, the Ministry of Labour is very positive in its outlook on the jobs market in the country, predicting more than 560,000 new high-level jobs in industry, and over 400,000 in the IT sector by 2030.

Alexander Safonov at Russia's Acadamy of Labour and Social Relations, considers these forecasts to be very optimistic. He also said that labour migration from the traditional sources—former Soviet countries, particularly those in Central Asia— will not necessarily be drawn by such jobs, because they now have more options.

"People in Uzbekistan are now being offered contracts in countries such as Great Britain, Germany, Turkey, the UAE, China, and South Korea," he added. "Competition for Central Asian employees will increase."

People in Uzbekistan are now being offered contracts in countries such as Great Britain, Germany, Turkey, the UAE, China, and South Korea. Competition for Central Asian employees will increase.

Alexander Safonov, Russia's Acadamy of Labour and Social Relations

Rouble trouble

The value of Russia's currency remains a major concern for labour migrants into the country.

News website Meduza reported that since the start of 2023, the rouble's exchange rate against the currencies of countries most commonly providing labour migrants to Russia has slumped. Against the Uzbekistani som, the rouble is down 18%. Against the Armenian dram and the Kazakhstani tenge, it is down about 25%.

DPA — 16 December 2014, Bavaria, Kaufbeuren: A Russian one-ruble coin placed on a one US dollar note.

The same effect is being felt back in Mets Mantashov. Another villager, Viktor Chakhoyan, has long working experience in Russia over the last 20 years. Now, he also says the money is no longer worth it: "50,000 roubles now makes around 200,000 Armenian drams. You can't support your family on a monthly sum of that kind; it's not enough to survive."

"Especially if you have a son or daughter studying in the city, apartment rents there have soared to 300,000-400,000 Armenian drams. How can that money be enough to pay the rent, provide food, cover the costs of transport, clothes?"

Rita Loginova – a correspondent from the independent Russian media organisation Verstka, told the BBC Russian Service: "The money they are sending home is significantly less now, to the extent that they can stay home and make around the same amount."

"Migrants from Central Asia are now finding work in Europe, Turkey, South Korea, and other locations. Initially after the war, the exchange rate dropped, but then it grew stable and more predictable. This has changed now."

She also mentioned xenophobia in Russia as another reason that drives away labor migrants, or at least makes them less willing to work when the appeal of the money weakens.

50,000 roubles now makes around 200,000 Armenian drams. You can't support your family on a monthly sum of that kind, it's not enough to survive.

Viktor Chakhoyan, Armenian villager

Direct threat of war

And there is an even bigger danger facing labour migrants in Russia. The country is actively recruiting people – including those from abroad – to fight in its army, especially since 2022.

Human rights activist Valentina Chupik, who was expelled from Russia but continues to support labour migrants from abroad, says several methods are being used: "The first approach is to trick them. These people undergo a medical exam and fingerprinting as part of their work permit process."

"They are given a stack of documents and told to sign quickly. The stack includes a contract on volunteer military service, typed in small print with unclear language. People sign it without reading it and end up giving their consent.

AFP — A woman stand in front of clothes on sale at a market in Moscow on October 10, 2023.

"The second approach is to scare some of them and say that their documents are not in order. They are threatened with deportation unless they quickly sign certain documents, which they once again do not read.

"The third approach is to use physical or psychological violence to coerce them."

Rita Loginova suggests that the police are playing a key role in this process:

"In the past, police raids on neighbourhoods with many labour migrants aimed to identify illegal migrants, who would then be fined or deported. Now, these police raids aim to find those of the labour migrants who have gained Russian citizenship recently so that they can be sent to fight in the war on Ukraine."

She added that some labour migrants from Central Asia prefer to apply for Russian citizenship through a simplified procedure rather than get an official work permit, which is more expensive.

Chupik says that none of this will ever be officially reported: "No statistical data exists on this, and it will never exist. Don't expect such data, and don't ask anyone for them because they are being concealed."

And so the war in Ukraine looms over the potential migrants over the border in Mets Mantash.

Arman, a 41-year-old resident who left to find work in Russia but ended up fighting for the Red Army in Ukraine, died there. In Vagharshak Sukoyan's words on his neighbour: "He was working in Orenburg, but signed up as a volunteer soldier, and was taken to fight in war on January 2".

Arman died just two days later. Nobody in the Armenian village could explain why their compatriot had decided to fight in Russia's war.

+ / -