Blinken's failed shuttle diplomacy shows America's waning influence

US influence at historic low

The changing dynamic in the relationship between Arab regimes formerly regarded as Washington's allies but which are now demonstrating their unwillingness to submit to Washington's diktat, was very much in evidence during Blinken's latest bout of shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East, where his primary focus was on easing the humanitarian disaster affecting the estimated two million Palestinians affected by the deepening Gaza conflict.

During visits to Jerusalem, Ramallah, Amman, Baghdad and Ankara, Blinken set himself a demanding agenda. Apart from easing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza by persuading Israel to ease the fighting to allow more aid to enter the besieged enclave in return for the release of Israeli hostages,  Blinken was keen to encourage regional leaders to start considering long-term solutions for ending the Gaza conflict. His other objective was to prevent the conflict from spreading beyond the immediate confines of Gaza.

And, to judge from the decidedly uncooperative response he received from his numerous intermediaries, Washington's ability to exercise its influence over events taking place in the region is at a historic low.

In Israel, for example, where Blinken was careful to avoid the vexed issue of asking Israel to observe a short ceasefire, his appeals for Israel to observe a humanitarian "pause" in its military offensive against Hamas got short shrift from Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu.

Prior to Hamas launching its devastating attack against Israel on 7 October, relations between US President Joe Biden and Netanyahu were already at a low ebb because of the Israeli premier's bitter opposition to Washington's attempts to revive the Iran nuclear deal.

Netanyahu's intransigence and Arabs' cool reception

Even though Biden has been quick to demonstrate his support for Israel following the Hamas attack by dispatching two aircraft carrier battle groups to the eastern Mediterranean to prevent an escalation in the conflict, Netanyahu showed little willingness to comply with Blinken's request.

Instead, the Israeli premier bluntly refused even to consider a temporary pause in the conflict, arguing that the estimated 240 Israelis held hostage by Hamas should be released first.

As if to underline Israel's determination to resist pressure from Washington to scale down the ferocity of its offensive against Hamas, the Israeli army carried out an air strike on an ambulance that was transporting injured Palestinians to the Rafah border crossing.

Blinken also found himself thwarted when he visited Jordan to attend a summit of foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, as well as the host nation and the chair of the PLO's executive committee.

All the parties attending the summit have denounced Israel's war on Gaza on the grounds it constitutes an unlawful collective punishment against the Palestinian people.

And they made it abundantly clear they had no intention of complying with Blinken's suggestion that they begin giving consideration to the post-conflict administration of Gaza so long as Israel continued with its military offensive.

Resisting American suggestions that they play a larger role in the latest Middle East crisis, Jordan's foreign minister, Ayman al-Safadi, insisted the main purpose of the gathering was "in the context of their efforts aimed at stopping the Israeli war on Gaza and the humanitarian catastrophe it is causing".

Egyptian officials, meanwhile, said there was consensus among Arab governments involved in discussions with the US to resist "any talks" on the postwar period in Gaza before establishing a ceasefire and allowing the delivery of more humanitarian aid and fuel to Gaza.

Consequently, Egypt's priority is for the implementation of humanitarian pauses of fighting for six to 12 hours every day to permit aid deliveries, evacuations of seriously injured to Egypt and the entry of fuel.

Blinken's visit to Ankara proved equally unproductive as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refused to meet him. Instead, Erdogan made it clear that he had no intention of dealing with Netanyahu in the future. "We have erased him," he was reported as telling Blinken.

The US Secretary of State's abject failure to grasp the strength of feeling in the Arab world, which pictures of Palestinian children lined up in their death shrouds appearing daily on Arab television stations, was compounded when he advised the Palestinian Authority (PA), which is a sworn enemy of Hamas, they could play a central role in Gaza once it is purged of Hamas.

The fact that Blinken returned home empty-handed from his diplomatic shuttle mission to the region not only demonstrated his inability to grasp the bitter emotions Israel's war on Gaza has generated. It also served to highlight the dramatic decline Washington's influence in the region has suffered since the Biden administration took office.