Erdoğan gets a reality check in Sochi

But this is diplomacy, right?

Two leaders sitting down to hash out issues. European and US leaders have long entertained the idea that issues with Russia could be solved if only one would agree to sit down with Putin.

Some, in fact, still do.

The two leaders in Sochi have also worked hard to tout their relationship as "special" and personal, with Erdoğan at times calling Putin a "friend".

In fact, at the time of Prigozhin's own mutiny, Erdoğan was one of the few leaders to talk to Putin. By doing so, he crossed off an old debt: When he himself faced a coup in 2016,  Putin was one of the few leaders to ring — going as far as to offer the help of Russian troops.

Failure to deliver

But this time, the personal ties between the two leaders failed to deliver. Despite a statement by Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov that the "clocks were synchronised", Ankara and Moscow appeared to be living in their own timezone.

The big-ticket item of the visit was the Black Sea Grain deal, the Turkish-backed deal that helped ease the food crisis prompted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The deal collapsed on 17 July, when Russia refused to extend it.

Moscow has since waged a campaign of attacks against Ukrainian sea and river ports, as well as its agricultural sector.  Amidst this crisis, eyes turned to Erdoğan as a possible mediator.

And indeed, the Turkish president reminded in his statements in Sochi that the "eyes of the world" were on them. But there was little to see, as Erdoğan failed to convince Putin to return to the agreement. Instead, Putin reiterated his conditions for a return to the agreement.

Read more: Putin and Erdoğan leave Sochi with no big breakthroughs

A new UN proposal has sought to respond to some of the Kremlin's "concerns", but the Russian preconditions are simply too high to meet. Any resumption of the deal would require some amount of flexibility from the Russian side — something Erdoğan failed to secure. This was a slap in the face of Erdoğan and a dangerous moment for Turkey.

Under Erdoğan's leadership, the country has managed to mitigate the fallout of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, despite being one of the countries most exposed to it.

Economically, Turkey has benefited (to an extent) from higher Russian trade and tourism. As mentioned several times by Putin, Russia is also very keen to support Turkey's effort to become an "energy hub" — a long-standing Turkish ambition.

Ankara has also benefited from cheaper Russian gas, provided at an even greater discount, and deferred payments. According to a Turkish economic publication, citing data from the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB), over 2,000 companies have been set up by Russian citizens in Turkey since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, last year.

Putin made Erdoğan look weak

While this did raise eyebrows in the West, Ankara's unique position in the conflict, its Nato membership and ability to veto the alliance's expansion as well as its geographic importance have watered down the reaction of those seeking to isolate Russia.

On the diplomatic side, Erdoğan has managed to turn his expanded ties with Russia as possible leverage over Moscow. To top it off, this leverage is another reason why the West may be willing to tolerate a more intertwined Russia-Turkey partnership: He has positioned himself as one of the few leaders to potentially be able to extract concessions from Putin.

Sure, Erdoğan did not broaden the size of his fan club in the West in the process, but he did make himself indispensable. At least up to this point.

This complex balancing game does require results, and Erdoğan came back from Sochi empty-handed.

Adding insult to injury, Erdoğan appeared to side with Putin's argument that Ukrainian intransigence is to blame for the collapse of the deal, calling on Kyiv to "soften" its stance. He also endorsed a Russian proposal to send grain, financed by Qatar, to Turkey for processing, before being distributed to Africa. 

One can wonder whether Erdoğan was duped by Putin, and lured into Sochi over suggestions that Russia was about to re-enter the Black Sea Grain deal.

The Putin-Erdoğan show on the Russian Black Sea coast was carefully planned, and preceded by a set of meetings. This includes a visit by Turkey's Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan to Russia, in which the details of the (then) upcoming visit by Erdoğan and the deals that may be reached were discussed.

Putin uses his leverage in Syria

But this also mischaracterises the Turkey-Russia relationship.

Although the Black Sea Grain deal was at the top of the agenda, the list of topics of interest is long. Erdoğan and Putin have much to talk about as Turkish and Russian interests often cross, but rarely align.

In Syria, Turkey initially sought to remove President Bashar al-Assad, whose seat was saved by a Russian intervention in 2015. In the aftermath of Moscow's intervention, Turkey narrowed down its security interest and focused on removing the threat posed by the YPG, a Kurdish group with ties to the PKK.

To secure the removal of the YPG, Turkey has carried out multiple cross-border operations. But it now seeks a longer-term solution with a potentially restored al-Assad — and Russia is right in the middle of it.

Moscow has maintained discreet ties with the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) and encouraged an ambiguous policy by the Syrian regime. Al-Assad's forces have acted at times to help and protect the YPG, although the two sides are, by any measure, far from being friends.

Even more recently, a rare Russian strike was carried out just as Arab tribesmen were pushing against a YPG-led alliance in the Manbij area of northern Syria. As is often the case with Russian strikes, it, however, ended up killing civilians.

This Russian position isn't coincidental, and not tied to any form of altruistic sympathy toward the Kurdish cause.

Russia has placed itself in the middle of this crisis because it understands leverage. Putin wants to make sure Ankara knows any solution to the Syrian conflict — particularly one that would please Erdoğan — goes through Moscow.

Even beyond this issue, Russia also understands the growing domestic pressure on Turkey to settle the crisis. Over the past years, growing anti-Syrian sentiment has been exploited by Erdoğan's nationalist allies who want Syrian refugees to be "resettled" in Syria — despite the incredibly unstable conditions there.

A long-lasting resettlement would require al-Assad's approval and support — something the Syrian president knows all too well. Al-Assad has shied away from compromising with Erdoğan — at least publicly — as long as Erdoğan maintains its support for rebel factions in Syria. 

Other contentious theatres

Beyond the Syrian theatre, Turkey and Russia have also butted heads in other key areas. In Libya, Turkey and Russia have found themselves at odds with each other, as Ankara backs the Tripoli-based government, while Russia backs the Eastern-based warlord, Khalifa Haftar.

Prigozhin's death may well affect Russia's presence in the country, as Wagner was a prominent vector of Russian influence. But a timely visit by Putin's new point man in Africa, Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov, just hours before Prigozhin's plane took a final dive, shows contingency plans were already in place.

In the Caucasus, Turkey has backed its long-time friend, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, in his fight to wrestle control over parts of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh. On the opposite side of the conflict is the Moscow-backed Armenia, which is increasingly unsure about this long-time partnership with Russia.

More broadly, Turkey has discreetly sought to expand its influence in the Caucasus, using the Ukrainian war as an opportunity, given Russia's waning ability to exert power in the region.

Overall, Erdoğan's visit shows that, though Russia may be diminished, it still retains ways to pressure the Turkish president and flex its muscles.

The Turkish leader seeks to elevate himself on the world scene by negotiating life-saving deals, such as the grain corridor. But the truth is Erdoğan has also increasingly exposed himself to Russian influence, having to swing his baton from East to West to keep his footing.

And while Erdoğan's balancing act wouldn't shame the circus's bests, even the bests rarely avoid missteps and falls.