Putin mulls Wagner's future after Prigozhin 'assassination'

Prigozhin death confirmed and it is likely he was assassinated

The obvious friction between the two men has led to accusations that Putin was responsible for last week's plane crash northwest of Moscow in which Prigozhin and several other high-ranking Wagner officials died, a claim that has been rigorously denied by the Kremlin.

US officials have said that early intelligence suggests Prigozhin was assassinated, and that a bomb may have exploded on the aircraft.

Prigozhin's death will certainly not be mourned by Putin, whose personal credibility and leadership status have been seriously damaged by the former Wagner leader's very public criticism of the Kremlin's handling of the Ukraine conflict.

Putin's lack of regret over the death of his former acolyte, who became known as "Putin's chef" over his close association with the Russian leader, was clearly evident as investigators finally confirmed, after detailed examination of DNA samples, that Prigozhin was among the 10 fatalities in the plane crash.

Praising Prigozhin as a "talented businessman", Putin also criticised him for making "serious mistakes" in his first remarks after the Wagner leader's death.

"I knew Prigozhin for a long time, from the early 1990s. He had a difficult path and made serious mistakes in his life. But he got results – for himself, and when I asked him," Putin said in a televised address.

Putin also acknowledged Wagner members killed in the incident had made a "significant contribution to our common cause of fighting the neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine".

But the Russian leader's determination to draw a line under Prigozhin's disruptive contribution was evident from the Kremlin's refusal to give the Wagner veteran a state funeral.

Shortly before launching his ill-fated coup against the Kremlin, Prigozhin was awarded the Hero of Russia order, a prestigious medal that entitles the recipient to a state funeral with an honorary guard. Putin's refusal to grant his former ally this honour is indicative of his desire to play down the Wagner leader's contribution to the state.

What next for Wagner after its 'cult' leader's demise?

Putin may struggle, though, to erase Prigozhin's memory completely in the minds of the Russian people. The Wagner leader's exploits, especially in Ukraine, made him something of a cult figure among Russian nationalists, to the extent that makeshift memorials have appeared throughout Russia marking his demise.

Of more importance to Putin, though, will be the challenge of deciding what to do with the remnants of the Wagner organisation, especially as many of the key officials who worked with Prigozhin were killed in the same plane crash.

Dmitry Utkin, a Russian army officer believed to be Prigozhin's right-hand man, was among those killed in the crash. Utkin had run the mercenary group's operations since it was founded in 2014 and was responsible for overall command and combat training.

Valery Chekalov, who played a key role in the group's finances, was also killed in the crash.

Following the deaths of these key figures in the organisation, Putin has moved quickly to bring Wagner under the Kremlin's direct control, issuing an order for Wagner fighters to sign an oath of allegiance to the Russian state.

Putin will also need to focus on the Wagner group's future, especially its extensive operations in Africa and the Middle East which have proved highly lucrative for the Kremlin.

Read more: Will Wagner mutiny elicit more caution over mercenary use in the Middle East?

Thanks to the elaborate network of contacts established by Prigozhin, Wagner has proved highly successful at funding its war chest by exploiting natural resources in the countries where it operates.

One particularly lucrative operation has involved smuggling gold from Sudan, where Wagner has a significant presence, which is then sold to help fund the war in Ukraine by enabling Moscow to evade Western sanctions.

The funds have also helped Wagner to expand its operations throughout Africa, where the organisation has provided security against extremist organisations like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group.

Given the Kremlin's interest in cultivating closer diplomatic ties in Africa, Putin will be keen to maintain Russia's presence in the region, even if it means placing Wagner's mercenaries under new leadership.

Read more: A new scramble for Africa is underway and Russia is vying for influence

Africa is regarded as a top priority by the Kremlin as it seeks new allies amid its war in Ukraine, where Wagner forces also helped win a key battle. Africa's 54 nations are the largest voting bloc at the UN, and Moscow has actively worked to rally their support for its invasion.

The challenge for Putin, therefore, will be to find a way to maintain the influence Wagner has built up in the region now that he can no longer call on the services of his erstwhile ally Prigozhin.