Is climate change behind the spike in global wildfires?

The need to combat climate change, and thus to decrease the risk of uncontrolled wildfires, remains a global imperative today

AFP

A burning forest in the village of Dekila, near the town of Alexandroupolis in Greece on August 22

Is climate change behind the spike in global wildfires?

Nazareth Seferian

last update on 25 Aug 2023

Halfway through the summer of 2023 in the northern hemisphere, most of us have witnessed these scenes on our screens, and perhaps some have seen it up close: massive blazes and smoke covering large swathes of land, people that have managed to escape but lost everything they owned, rising death toll numbers and projections of damage to the economy.

Holiday destinations like Rhodes in Greece, Kemer in Turkey, and Hawaii in the United States, as well as Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco, are making the news because of massive wildfires that are very difficult to contain.

Besides the immediate rescue and relief work that needs to be done to save locals and tourists who have been impacted by these natural phenomena, there are longer-term questions that we should be asking ourselves.

How are these fires connected to climate change, and does this link mean that they will be a regular feature on our planet in the future? Is there anything we can do to prevent them?

AFP — A fireman douses flames on a wildfire at Panorama settlement near Agioi Theodori, some 70 km west of Athens on July 18, 2023.

Scientific consensus

Most scientists and environmentalists agree that climate change contributes to the probability of wildfires. A 2021 study involving the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — a branch of the US Department of Commerce — pinpointed climate change as the main driver in the increase in “fire weather” in the United States.

This was determined by measuring how much moisture actually existed in the air at a given time, compared to how much moisture the air could hold when saturated. The study found that persistent heat and drought set the stage for wildfires, and climate change is contributing to the increase in “fire seasons” where these conditions are more severe over a longer period of time.

The Environmental Defense Fund, a US-based non-profit, estimates that the average wildfire season in the western United States is more than 100 days longer today than it was in 1970. And it is even creating unfavourable conditions in locations that are otherwise not known for such fires.

During news reports about the fires in Hawaii on American television, Dr. Eric Kennedy from York University said, “Climate change can have a number of impacts on fire regimes, as we would call them. It could make it drier, less humid, windier, even potentially lead to more lightning strikes, and these kinds of conditions can create catastrophic fires.”

Climate change can have a number of impacts on fire regimes, as we would call them. It could make it drier, less humid, windier, and even potentially lead to more lightning strikes, and these kinds of conditions can create catastrophic fires.

Dr. Eric Kennedy of York University

He also stated that because climate change had increased the duration and occurrence of fire seasons, managing them is now more complicated.

"That's certainly a stressor that comes with climate change and with these conditions around the globe. It makes it harder to perhaps borrow personnel from country to country like we sometimes see when every country's fire season is expanding."

Measuring impact

The first thing anyone thinks about when there is news of a natural disaster is the cost in terms of human life. When warning systems and evacuation mechanisms work, these numbers are, thankfully, minimal. But even in these cases, there is a detrimental impact at various levels — whether it is the damage to the infrastructure, economy, or cultural heritage of the wildfire location.

The historic city of Lahaina in Maui is the most recent example of that. Satellite images show that what was once a major tourist attraction with traditional craftsmen, a vibrant seafaring community, and a rainbow that occurred almost every day at 5 o'clock, was reduced in August 2023 mostly to rubble, with more than 1,700 structures damaged or destroyed, and several dozen lives lost.

Here's an idea of the bigger picture: The Environmental Defense Fund has looked at wildfires from 2017 to 2021 in the United States and estimated their total cost at more than $80bn.

Reconstruction efforts that start after these disasters always come with a cost, and this should be weighed against the expense of preventing future wildfires from occurring. So, is it possible for public bodies to invest in solutions that make wildfires less likely by tackling factors like climate change?

The Environmental Defense Fund has looked at wildfires from 2017 to 2021 in the United States and estimated their total cost at more than $80bn.

Not all fires are bad

The first thing that most scientists clarify is that wildfires are a natural phenomenon, and we should not be trying to eliminate all of them. Some wildfires are beneficial and even essential.

Coniferous forests, for example, consist of very tall, old trees that cast a large shadow on the ground and make it difficult for new seeds to get enough sunlight to germinate and grow. Forest fires help clear the older trees and create favourable conditions for younger ones to grow, ensuring that the forest remains viable from one generation of plants to the other.

AFP — A firefighting helicopter drops water as a wildfire hits at Panorama settlement near Agioi Theodori, some 70 kms west of Athens on July 18, 2023.

Educator Jim Schulz explains that "fires are also important for the wider ecosystem as a whole. Without wildfires to rejuvenate trees, key forest species would disappear and so would the many creatures that depend on them."

"And if a fire-dependent forest goes too long without burning, that raises the risk of a catastrophic blaze which could destroy a forest completely, not to mention people's homes and lives. That's why forest rangers sometimes intentionally start controlled burns," he says.

Some solutions to curb wildfires include stopping tropical deforestation, boosting soil health on farms and restoring wetlands. But the most important step is to develop alternative energy solutions.

But the need to combat climate change, and thus to decrease the risk of uncontrolled wildfires, remains a global imperative today. Some solutions for which the Environmental Defense Fund advocates include stopping tropical deforestation, boosting soil health on farms and restoring wetlands. But the most important step is to develop alternative energy solutions.

It is clear that the solution to climate change is not going to be easy to implement, even if there are experts out there who believe it is conceptually simple.

We are still at a point globally where we need everyday citizens in many countries to acknowledge the problem and to realise their own part in solving it, through their own choices and behaviours as consumers and citizens.

Until that happens, we will see more wildfires swallowing forests and residential areas, causing more damage to towns and cities, because when something has a very high probability, it can almost be considered an inevitability.

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