Washington manages expectations over F-16s approval for Kyiv

Go-ahead finally given

But after months of intense lobbying by both Zelensky and his European allies, Biden has finally given the go-ahead for Nato allies to provide Ukraine with the fighters, as well as providing the training for Ukrainian pilots to fly them.

Speaking at the recent G7 summit in Japan,  US National security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden "informed his G7 counterparts" of the decision during the summit, and that the US would also supervise training of Ukrainian pilots.

The decision undoubtedly represents a major U-turn on the part of the Biden administration.

Back in February, Biden was insistent in an interview with ABC's David Muir that Ukraine "doesn't need F-16s now" and that "I am ruling it out for now."

In March, Colin Kahl, a top Pentagon policy official,  told US lawmakers that even if the president approved F-16s for Ukraine, it could take as long as two years to get Ukrainian pilots trained and equipped.

Those assessments have now been dramatically revised downwards after Ukrainian pilots were invited to undertake training on F-16 simulators, and demonstrated they were able to master the technology to fly the warplane in just three months.

The prospect of Ukraine receiving the sophisticated aircraft was certainly sufficient to provoke a hostile response from Moscow, with a Russian foreign ministry spokesman warning that any Nato country that provided Ukraine with F-16s would run "enormous risks".

Like so many of the threats Moscow has made since hostilities commenced in February last year, there is little Russia can do to stop Ukraine from acquiring the aircraft, so long as they are flown and operated by Ukrainian pilots. Like any country, Ukraine has the right to defend itself and acquire military equipment from whomever it chooses.

A more pertinent concern, at least from Kyiv's perspective, is just how long it will take to obtain the fighters, and when they might be ready to make a contribution to Ukraine's war effort.

Serious upgrade

There is little doubt that acquiring a sophisticated warplane like the F-16 will constitute a serious upgrade for the Ukrainian air force, as they bring a whole new range of capabilities that the Ukrainians have not previously enjoyed. 

The F-16's radar, for example, has a longer range than most Soviet-era fighters, allowing hostile aircraft to be engaged at greater distances.

They conduct missions with missiles that do not require the aircraft to maintain a radar lock to hit their target — a capability that Russia currently has, but Ukraine does not.

F-16s can also launch precision bombs guided by laser, GPS, and advanced targeting systems, and are better at targeting and destroying enemy ground-based radars than Ukraine's current fighter jets.

While these capabilities will undoubtedly enhance Ukraine's war-fighting operations, questions remain about which, if any, of these technical components will be included in any future F-16 deliveries, as well as how long it will take to introduce the warplanes into Ukraine's frontline operations.

While Kyiv has received countless declarations of military support from its Western allies in recent months, their failure to match their words with the promised supplies of military hardware has forced the Ukrainian military to postpone its long-planned spring offensive.

Read more: Ukraine counter-offensive on hold until Western weapons arrive

Now there are concerns similar delays could affect efforts to supply F-16s, even though most European countries, including the UK, France, Germany and Poland, back the creation of a Western "coalition of jets".

Managing expectations

An indication that it could be some time before the Ukrainians actually have access to the fighters was given by US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall who, commenting after Biden's announcement, played down the likely impact the F-16s will have on the Ukraine conflict, suggesting it could take several months to iron out the details of providing the aircraft. 

"It will take several months at best for them to have that capability and there are a lot of details that are going to have to be sorted out," Kendall said. "It will give the Ukrainians an incremental capability that they don't have right now. But it's not going to be a dramatic game changer."

Meanwhile, a senior US security official said work had begun on  developing the training plan and "when, where and how to deliver F-16s" to Ukraine as part of the long-term security effort.

Another important issue relates to which countries will supply the aircraft. Poland, which has taken the lead in lobbying for Ukraine to have F-16s, has ruled out donating any of its own fleet of 48 F-16s, while other potential donors, such as Belgium, claim they have no F-16s to spare.

All of which suggests that, while Biden's decision to approve the transfer of F-16s could ultimately provide a major boost to Ukraine's war effort, it will amount to little if the aircraft do not actually arrive before the fighting ends.