Niger coup deepens divisions in West Africa economic bloc

West African states such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea are threatening to withdraw from the economic union if France wages war to reverse the coup

AFP

A group of protesters holds Russia and Burkina flags as they protest against the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Niger coup deepens divisions in West Africa economic bloc

Mohamed Sharki

last update on 09 Aug 2023

Three countries in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) — namely Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea — have threatened to withdraw from the economic union, if war is declared on Niger in a bid to overthrow the military coup and restore the rule of President Mohamed Bazoum through foreign intervention.

The threats came in response to Paris declaring its intention to possibly go to war after securing support from some countries in the European Union.

Founded in 1975 in Abuja, Nigeria, the economic group comprises 15 countries in the Sahel and the Sahara and is considered one of the oldest and most successful regional blocs on the African continent.

It spans an area of 5.11 million square kilometres and is inhabited by about 440 million people. Its economy is estimated at $770bn according to the Country Economy website.

On the other hand, this group comprises the largest number of poor countries in the world, where per capita income is less than two dollars a day.

It's important to note that in Nigeria alone — which is Africa's largest economy — 142 million people live in poverty, according to a World Bank report. Despite the abundance of vast natural resources, the Sahara region south of North Africa has not made significant progress in economic and social development.

AFP — Bidemi Aye receives a pre-paid debt card for cash and food provided by World Food Programme (WFP) in a makeshift home in the Makoko riverine slum settlement in Lagos on November 27, 2020.

This leaves its countries vulnerable and susceptible to regular military coups and civil wars, as well as the exploitation of their wealth.

Despite the abundance of vast natural resources, the Sahara region south of North Africa has not made significant progress in economic and social development.

Between the jaws of colonialism and terrorism

The three countries that are against military action against Niger have already witnessed military coups in recent years. They are also starkly opposed to French presence and have called for the withdrawal of what they call the 'remnants of past European colonialism' from their region and the entire continent.

To this end, these states turned to Wagner's Russian forces to help them fight against the Islamic State (IS) in the Gourma region of northeastern Mali and the Minka region near Niger, where the French Barkhan forces failed.

Moscow sees the rising conflict in Central Africa as an opportunity to boost its presence on the continent and neutralise Africa's stance on Russia's war against Ukraine.

This intention was on full display in St. Petersburg when Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted African leaders last month. At the gathering, Moscow promised development and grain supplies to African nations in a bid to reignite a sort of cold war with Western Europe in the volatile region.

Burkina Faso's Capt. Ibrahim Traore, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands before an official ceremony to welcome the leaders of delegations to the Russia Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, July 27, 2023

While Wagner was able to contain IS militias in the region, a more complex problem has emerged with several terrorist and criminal organisations exploiting the weakness of states, government corruption and high poverty rates to expand their activities. These groups could pose an additional layer of complexity should any future war take place.

Extremist organisations have successfully recruited from the local populations of Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Togo, Guinea, Ghana, Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon. These followers belong mainly to pastoral tribes living in the same border region and harbour grievances against their central governments.

Due to poverty and the vastness of the area, some groups have seized control of underground natural resources such as oil, gas, gold, diamonds, and other precious minerals. This has allowed the formation of independent groups outside the state power apparatus that can be deployed in any new conflict.

In St. Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin Moscow promised development and grain supplies to African nations in a bid to reignite a sort of cold war with Western Europe in the volatile region.

The cost of division

There is no doubt that the fracture within the Economic Community of West Africa — with some members favouring and others opposing external military intervention in Niger — is not in the North African or European interest.

Both believe that, if a war breaks out, they will be in a vulnerable position in a region ruled by outlawed gangs in a borderless desert spanning 30 million kilometres, comprising one-sixth of the total area of the African continent.

These countries were greatly impacted by the Covid-19 crisis, the war in Ukraine, high inflation and prices, food shortages, and the burden of external debt, which has increased due to rising interest rates set by central banks in developed countries.

The African franc (CFA) lost around 9.5% of its value against the euro. ECOWAS lost around 29 million jobs over three years, and the number of poor people has increased by 122 million across the continent.

Most Atlantic African countries are unable to service their debts, which has further fuelled China's interest in accessing the Atlantic Ocean via the Silk Road.

There is no doubt that the fracture within the Economic Community of West Africa — with some members favouring and others opposing external military intervention in Niger — is not in the North African or European interest.

Steady growth

On its part, the Economic Community of West African States was able to achieve steady growth in the last two years, between 3.8% and 4.4%, driven by the increase in energy, raw materials and metals prices. This progress is expected to continue and stabilise at 4.2% in 2024, according to the African Development Bank.

But the geographic location of these states limits their ability to attract further investments due to poor infrastructure and arid deserts. Consequently, external interest tends to focus on natural resources — especially precious metals and uranium — which was a main driver of external intervention in Niger.

AFP — A Nigerien Soldier walks outside France's state-owned nuclear giant Areva's uranium mine on September 26, 2010 in Arlit, Niger.

According to the World Bank, the African continent needs at least $250bn in development and infrastructure spending but it has only received $30bn of that amount. Africa also suffers from the effects of climate change, despite having minimal polluting industries. The African Development Bank estimates the capital value of discovered and declared natural resources at about $6.2tn.

North Africa seems to be the most concerned about a possible war in Niger due to its geographic proximity to the region with lengthy shared borders between Algeria and Libya to the north and Niger and Mali to the south. It fears mass displacements and the infiltration of extremist groups along the lines of conflict along its shared borders.

A potential war and subsequent instability and unrest will further curb economic investment in sub-Saharan Africa. It will further hamper the progress of the African Continental Free Trade Area, which everyone is counting on to accelerate development, according to the French newspaper Liberation.

The Economic Community of West African States was able to achieve steady growth in the last two years. But the geographic location of these states limits their ability to attract further investments due to poor infrastructure and arid deserts.

European opposition to military intervention

On the European side, deep divisions have emerged between the Union's allies.

Italy openly opposes any military intervention in Mali, fearing mass displacement and heavy immigration that Rome cannot handle since the country has abandoned its bases in Africa to receive potential migrants fleeing war in the region.

Meanwhile, Germany is unenthusiastic about military intervention in Niger. It is concerned about the negative effects that war will have on development and economic progress in Africa. Berlin has plans to build green hydrogen and renewable energy plants in North and West Africa.

As for other European countries, many have yet to take a stance, but most are not aligned with the "Paris clique".

Despite condemning the military coup and championing Democratic principles, most European states are aware that the cost of reinstating the president could impose a huge economic and political burden that no one — including Paris — can afford.

On its part, France doesn't want to lose its access to Nigerian uranium, which accounts for three-quarters of the fuel needed to power French nuclear plants which are crucial in providing affordable electricity to its population.

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