Africa’s string of coups points to waning Western influence

Their number declined after the end of the Cold War and across the turn of the millennium, only to increase in the last decade.

The resurgence in coups comes in a period of more intense international competition and the failure of the West — notably France — to effectively combat terrorism and also foster a link between relatively new democracies and proper development.

The justifications put forward by the latest series of coup leaders are similar to those made by their predecessors. They mention taking a stand against corruption, poverty, and mismanagement. But there are new reasons too: security and the need to address terrorist groups and lawless areas of the country.

Military power grabs in the online age

The is also a clear difference in how coups are announced. They are no longer unveiled over the radio, but on social media and television screens.

Whatever the way used to break such news, the return of coups shows that theories about their demise in obsolescence – linked to the digital revolution and advances in surveillance making them more difficult – were wrong.

The very tools that were supposed to make coups more difficult to carry off are in the hands of the people carrying them out, making it possible for their leaders to control security and military forces, lifting their chances of success.

And at the same time, interventions from external military forces, which occurred in the latter half of the 20th century, are now absent.

Other reasons behind the string of coups

As well as some shared factors, the recent outbreak of coups has come about for a range of different reasons. In Mali and Burkina Faso, the direct trigger for the military coups was the failure to effectively combat jihadist and rebel groups.

Guinea experienced a coup primarily due to senior military officers' refusal to accept transfers and dismissals from their positions. Nevertheless, it's worth noting that Niger's army was also impacted by significant losses in its fight against terrorism.

International condemnations and threats of sanctions after the coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea failed to deter the one in Niger. Regrettably, the actions of the country's military there have disregarded the institutions they were entrusted to safeguard.

International consequences

Neighbouring Arab countries are surprised that Algeria has remained silent despite the potential consequences of the Niger coup, which could lead to an increase in the flow of migrants, smugglers, and terrorists towards Algeria.

Libya, the country which Niger's ousted President Mohamed Bazoum is from, and with which it had strong ties during the Gaddafi era, might face a heavier burden due to the activities of terrorist groups, foreign fighters, and migrants on its borders.

There are concerns about whether Mauritania will be able to avoid being affected by the domino effect of the coup, and whether Sudan could be vulnerable to interventions originating from Niger that might escalate the conflict there.

The fate of President Bazoum and what happens next in the country – not least over the political situation in Niamey – will largely depend on the extent of engagement by West African countries in countering it and how prepared both Washington and Paris are to handle a volatile situation.

Lessons not learned

One of the most disheartening aspects for France and the West is the apparent lack of valuable lessons that could have been learned from the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso.

Not least in terms of combatting anti-French sentiment rooted in the country's colonial legacy and perceptions of its current practices. Feelings have run high enough for calls for France to be expelled from the wider West Africa region.

The polarisation of France's interests and those of its local allies have sparked anger among a new generation of Africans, including junior officers.

Furthermore, France's response to coups has been inconsistent. While it strongly condemned the events in Mali and Burkina Faso, it took a different stance in Chad.

Following the killing of Marshal Idriss Déby Itno in April 2021, a military council led by his son seized power instead of allowing the head of parliament to become the interim president until elections were conducted. Despite this, France, as Chad's principal partner, promptly supported the military transition, rather than calling it a coup.

The failure of France and the West is clear in an inability to transform Niger into a model of Western-local partnership in counter-terrorism and development.

A new threat

Despite the Western military presence in Niger aimed at combating al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) factions through an integrated approach linking security, development, humanitarian aid, and efforts to address migration, the expected impact on development has not been achieved.

Niger's significant global uranium production and its role as a potential buffer to prevent migrant flows towards the Mediterranean Sea have added complexity to the situation.

The latest coup came with Niger's population waiting for much-anticipated development. The presence of 1,500 French soldiers, 1,000 American soldiers, and 100 German soldiers with their Western military training did not deter the coup leaders from taking up arms against civilian authority.

Once again, this shows the failure of Western attempts to protect democratic or civilian rule in countries that are ill-prepared to withstand internal and external pressures, especially in the context of international competition.

Then, entities like Wagner enter, offering protective services to new authorities in exchange for resources and to facilitate Russian influence. That makes the situation even more complicated.

A move toward Russia

Since 2018, Wagner has been actively involved in the Central African Republic, providing security protection for military rule in Bangui. The group's presence extends from Sudan and Libya to Angola, Mozambique, Mali, and Burkina Faso, where it plays various roles.

In a relatively short time, the Central African Republic has become a showcase for Wagner's services, displaying its expertise in security control without adhering to Western concepts of democracy and human rights.

This success has led to a shift away from France, which had been involved in training the army, and the presidential guard, and securing gold and silver mines in exchange for a share of income and economic benefits.

Russian companies have also shown significant interest and activity in diamond, gold, and other mineral mines in Africa, much like France, which heavily relies on uranium, particularly from Niger.

Colonial failings

France's significant failure in the Sahel region stems from its history as a colonial power there, which began relatively late in the late 19th century.

After countries achieved independence, the nation-state model set up faced pressures in the region, from poverty, corruption, poor governance and the rise of political and extremist Islam, while populations were growing.

These issues have led to the collapse of certain structures and a return to traditional state patterns in the Sahel, with the region developing its own distinct political characteristics.

Those conditions will be important factors in working out how to take the region forward.

A single focus on security solutions is insufficient. There is a need to develop unique models that embrace modernity and popular representation, in a region drawn on the map in 1898 and 1899 as French Sudan, including present-day Mali and Niger. It all started with the establishment of the first French military base in the city of Gao, Mali.

Seventy years later, colonialism ended and independent states emerged along the lines of the French model of the nation-state. These overlooked local structures and cultural nuances.

Promise – and threats

Africa is a continent brimming with promise, thanks to its diverse and abundant natural resources, vast mineral reserves, and a young and vibrant human capital. This has sparked growing interest in Africa, with various actors seeking access to its resources or securing a share of its investments.

But the recurring coups are raising concerns about Africa's west turning into a hotbed of anti-Western politics and potentially a new terrorist stronghold. It could become the new focal point for a reorganisation of Daesh and Al-Qaeda within lawless areas.

These intricacies add to the complexity of predicting the future of the continent, as different world powers vie for control over its lands and wealth.