Al-Dardari: Early recovery is the best way to address the Middle East's multiple crises

The Human Development Report and the ESCWA report you referred to have been pivotal in the historiography of the Arab world. Is there a concerted effort to offer a comprehensive interpretation of why challenges persist in the region, leading to regression rather than effective solutions?

Moreover, is there an existing analysis that can serve as a foundation for formulating comprehensive plans to fundamentally address these issues?

All the reports we have discussed, including the forthcoming Arab Human Development Report slated for publication by the end of next year, focus on a central concern in our region, which is governance.

Within this framework of governance, our particular emphasis lies on the efficiency, transparency, and integrity of institutions. These institutions play a crucial role in translating policies into tangible benefits for the people. It is vital for these institutions to truly represent the priorities of the people just as they themselves represent their own priorities by owning these institutions.

The crux of the development process lies in formulating effective policies that can be translated into tangible improvements, such as increased employment opportunities, enhanced competitiveness, a favourable investment climate, and the ability to combat corruption.

To achieve this, our focus centres on the governance of institutions and the reinforcement of their capacities and legitimacy in the eyes of the people. Institutions may possess legitimacy on paper due to legal establishment, but in the present context, this alone is insufficient.

What holds greater significance is their legitimacy in the eyes of the people, the credibility of these institutions, their outputs' acceptance, and their capability to lead integrated development processes amidst the complexities of the interconnected world we live in today.

No Arabic country lacks resources, and I am not only talking about countries with significant oil reserves. It is a well-established fact that there is no Arab country considered poor, from Mauritania to the Gulf.

However, the varying levels of governance, ranging from efficiency to absence, have a direct impact on the development outcomes observed in these countries, whether in progress or regress.

The UNDP is a leading institution within the United Nations, and the UN deals with the official Arab governments. As mentioned, there are various challenges, some of which are non-political. At the same time, there are political crises in the region, such as in Syria, Yemen, Libya, and others.

In such a political environment, how can the UNDP work to address these challenges, while avoiding political entanglement?

First and foremost, we are not a political entity, and we refrain from engaging in peace negotiations or any similar matters.

However, as a development organisation, our role is to ensure that people possess the minimum capacity to withstand significant development challenges. In instances where millions of people experience poverty — not necessarily due to armed conflicts but primarily as a result of political factors — the UNDP's mission is to offer support.

For example, in Lebanon, where, thankfully, armed conflicts do not currently exist, poverty affects approximately 90% of its population. To address such issues, the UNDP focuses on building the capacities of national and local institutions.

The organisation places great importance on collaborating with local communities to establish a closer connection with the people to provide direct support and leverage their resilience and creativity.

You pointed out that there are crises in all Arab countries, but resources are not an issue, as they are available across the region from Mauritania to the Gulf.

Your recent visit to Iraq included meetings, including with youth leaders. However, we know Iraq is one of the wealthiest countries with abundant oil resources and a significant budget.

How do you perceive the experience of being in such an affluent country and discussing development issues?

It is heartbreaking. Despite Iraq being classified internationally as a country with medium-to-high income, its development indicators, such as poverty and unemployment rates, resemble those typically associated with low-income or slow-growing nations.

This discrepancy is a direct outcome of the devastating impact of 40 years of wars, which were sufficient to hinder any development progress in the country. However, this brings us back to the importance of governance.

While Iraq allocates substantial budgets, the recent budget, issued only weeks ago, directs a significant portion of resources toward employing a large number of new positions in the state. These funds could have been channelled into development projects capable of transforming the country and enhancing the efficiency of its economy, infrastructure, and water resource management.

Can you imagine that the land of the two rivers, Iraq, is suffering from thirst, or that the Mesopotamian country, with its abundant oil resources, needs to import gas for electricity generation?

Is it conceivable that Iraq, with all its wealth, lacks an adequate quantity of oil derivatives and experiences prolonged power outages for hours on end?

Is it acceptable that the people in southern Iraq, who live above one of the world's richest oil and gas reserves, are grappling with an unemployment rate as high as 60%?

The questions raised point to the importance of governance as the pivotal link between a country's resources and its developmental outcomes. Governance serves as the mechanism that translates available resources into tangible results. However, this mechanism has faced long-standing dysfunctions, resulting in significant setbacks in various contexts.

What reassured me during my visit to Iraq was the emergence of a new discourse, not only from the impressive and promising youth – who displayed a technological savvy, understanding of the world, and awareness of global developments – but also from the government itself.

They were engaging in discussions that acknowledge the impact of climate change and explore ways to address it. The discourse centred around the concept of energy transition and alternatives for economic diversification, aiming to reduce dependence on oil.

Read more: Iraq's suffocating silence on climate change

This kind of dialogue was a novelty to me in Iraq, as it was consistently shared by all the parties I spoke to, including government officials and representatives from different segments of Iraqi society whom I met throughout my visits to Baghdad, Karbala, Erbil, and other places.

This newfound development dialogue has placed the United Nations Development Programme at the forefront of the development process in Iraq, and we take great pride in that.

The UNDP is committed to providing unwavering support for this shift in thinking, planning mechanisms, and enhancing institutional capacity to translate these resources into tangible results that benefit the Iraqi people.

You tend to avoid discussing politics, and the UNDP is considered non-political. But isn't talking about governance a political matter?

Everything we do intersects with politics in one way or another. However, our focus is within our developmental scope, and we are confident that there is an interplay between our developmental work and the political landscape.

It is not the economy, but the political transition, embodied by Prime Minister Shia`Al-Sudani, that has paved the way for us to assume a fresh role in Iraq. We are now starting to shape this role to enhance our readiness to seize the current opportunity.

Our aspiration is that the achievements of our development initiatives, guided by this new approach, will contribute to fortifying the political stance aligned with this direction.

What about refugees and internally displaced persons? The UN High Commissioner for Refugees deals with the refugee issue of course, but in terms of the UNDP, what is your role in addressing the issue of displaced persons and refugees, especially given their significant presence in our Arab region?

The work of the UNDP revolves around population movements within and beyond countries.

The most significant source of economic development is the population. In times of conflict, when millions of people move from one place to another, such movements can cause significant economic disruptions in the host countries adding pressures on basic services, water resources, energy, and more.

Nevertheless, at the same time, positive outcomes can arise from such movements, as host countries can benefit from these refugees in enhancing their available resources and productive capacity.

First, our role as a developmental programme is to support host countries in enhancing their resilience and dealing with the influx of people, and we carry out such efforts globally and in our region.

Secondly, humanitarian aid is often the first thing a refugee receives upon arriving in a new country, provided by UN humanitarian organisations and international non-governmental organisations. But for how long can this continue?

Data suggests that the duration of the refugee experience has extended globally, with refugees returning to their home countries only after an average of 26 years.

Is it more effective to continue providing food aid and humanitarian assistance for 26 years, or would it be wiser to engage in income-generating productive activities that enhance the refugee's resilience, turning them into a source of benefit and growth for the host community?

Thirdly, the support we extend to host communities benefits both the local residents and refugees alike.

Let's imagine a small village with around 2,000 people, but then overnight, the population soars to 5,000 due to waves of displacement.

Let's imagine that this village lacks the resources and expertise to handle water, sanitation, and waste management effectively. Our efforts in this area help empower host communities to deliver essential services, and it even contributes to generating job opportunities.

The beauty of this work is that it's a win-win situation, benefiting both the local population and refugees at the same time.

There are many crises, but here we refer to Sudan and Syria specifically. What are the UNDP's priorities regarding the refugee issue?

Beyond the current debates surrounding the Syrian refugee issue, millions of people have moved and now reside in different places. In this context, we apply what I mentioned earlier: supporting host communities, empowering refugees to become productive, and transitioning from pure humanitarian aid to developmental work.

Ultimately, every refugee's dream is to return home, but refugees have the right to explore other options. For instance, they can choose to settle in a permanent host country.

However, countries neighbouring Syria — which currently host the largest number of Syrian refugees — have borne the burden. They have also, naturally, benefited in various aspects from the Syrian refugees since Syrian refugees are productive, efficient, and capable individuals, none of whom are sitting around waiting for aid.

Therefore, we hope to eventually witness a form of recovery within Syria itself that could serve as an economic incentive for people's return, at least for those not facing political, security, or similar challenges. However, it's still early to delve deeply into this discussion.

Nevertheless, we have already begun serious consideration of the concept of early recovery in Syria, within the limits of the United Nations mandate in the country. We recently met with our team in Beirut to discuss our work in this area."

The topic of early recovery is fundamental, as there is at least an international resolution that had discussed it. What is the UNDP's broader role in this matter concerning Syria and what specific steps are you taking to address this?

In Syria, we have a programme worth around $50mn annually, which is modest in comparison to the needs, and modest compared to the humanitarian aid that has reached Syria over the past 12 years.

However, today this humanitarian aid is dwindling. Those who were once able to provide aid no longer have the necessary funds, so they look at early recovery as a means to improve the efficiency of their spending. Investing $1 in development is equivalent to $10 in humanitarian aid. This transformation is excellent, and we are prepared for it.

Inside Syria, our efforts focus firstly on providing basic services in local communities, such as clean drinking water, sanitation, waste management, and essential local infrastructure without which life would be impossible.

Secondly, we work on enhancing healthcare and education services and improving citizens' ability to find employment in the market. Thirdly, we strive to boost opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises or boost existing ones to expand and resume operations.

These are the three main pillars we work on under the umbrella of early recovery, and we plan to expand horizontally in Syria and seek to secure more resources to reach a significantly larger number of Syrians to alleviate the pressures they suffer from.

This work is beneficial and necessary, but it has its limitations in terms of broader impact.

During my previous work in Afghanistan, I faced a similar situation where we were prohibited from addressing the state's public policies and sectoral policies. Consequently, we extensively focused on the three pillars I mentioned.

However, in reality, true recovery does not occur in this manner. Countries need fiscal and monetary policies, effective institutions, investment budgets, and current budgets. Genuine recovery can only happen through this broader approach, which we hope will become feasible after the current conditions in Syria change.

As you know, there is a deep division and debate among the UN member countries involved in the Syrian issue regarding the concept of early recovery, its scope, and its limitations. To what extent does the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) engage in this ongoing discussion to identify projects falling under the umbrella of early recovery?

The ongoing and intense debate centres on defining early recovery within the context of Syria, with a focus on achieving consensus with donor parties.

At the UNDP, we are responsible for expanding the concept of early recovery in Syria. However, reaching an agreement among donor parties on a specific definition is crucial, considering that the internal discussion differs from the broader and more comprehensive definition used for early recovery outside Syria.

We are currently working on an economic recovery programme at the community level in Lebanon. While the fundamental principle of collaborating with local communities for recovery from severe economic crises remains consistent, the situation there is different, as are the areas of operation.

What definition would you like to see for early recovery in Syria?

Firstly, emphasising the importance of agricultural revival, early recovery efforts in Syria must encompass measures to support and revitalise the agricultural sector.

Throughout history, Syria has demonstrated resilience in times of crisis, largely thanks to its success in agriculture. To address the current challenges, our primary focus is on reviving small ownership and providing assistance to small farmers who are facing difficulties in affording fuel and essential agricultural supplies.

While such support may have a relatively low monetary value, its broad and far-reaching impact on the agricultural sector can be substantial. Agriculture must be a priority.

Secondly, basic services such as renewable energy, clean drinking water, sanitation, and waste management generate income due to their labour-intensive nature.

Thirdly, historically, Syria has been a trading nation, so rejuvenating the small-scale commercial sector is vital for successful recovery. Alongside partial agricultural revival, it is crucial to focus on revitalizing a portion of the small-scale commercial sector and boosting small-scale agricultural food industries because developing value chains is crucial.

If farmers face challenges in marketing or processing the crops they grow due to a lack of resources like fuel, then their agricultural produce will remain stagnant.

Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to seemingly minor details and rebuild the trust-based value chains that were once a hallmark of the Syrian countryside.

In the past, farmers could rely on trust-based exchanges, where they could request fertiliser or other resources and receive them with the ability to pay later. These trust-based chains have been disrupted and shattered in the current situation but can they be restored? Restoring these chains is a pivotal goal in the direction we are discussing.

What role does the UNDP play in Syria, and how is coordination established with other United Nations entities? Is there coordination between you, the UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen, and the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths?

Certainly, coordination exists among UN organisations, and there is coordination with the UN's political administration as well.

The most important coordination occurs at the level of the UN team in each country. In Syria, the UN resident coordinator, who represents the secretary-general of the United Nations, is responsible for coordinating all UN organisations within the UN country team.

Meanwhile, the UNDP is the lead organisation in the development field within the UN system, and we have a resident representative who leads our work on the ground.

UNDP operates in crisis-stricken countries like Syria, Sudan, and Yemen. Frankly, is the role of UNDP the same in all these countries?

The role of development work varies significantly depending on the specific context, and there is no universal approach that fits all situations. The developmental context in Afghanistan differs from that in Yemen, where our current efforts are expanding.

Similarly, our role in Syria is distinct from the roles in other regions. Each location presents its unique limitations and possibilities for developmental work, and it is our responsibility to do our best within these limitations.

For instance, in Libya, we managed to stabilise the region and achieve economic growth by working directly with the local authorities. While in Egypt, the focus is primarily on collaboration with the central government, and fortunately, developmental challenges there do not involve conflicts.

The offering we provide may differ from one place to another, but at its core, it focuses on achieving a sustainable development that upholds human dignity – sustainable multi-sectoral development through integrated solutions, avoiding the usual fragmentation of efforts – that addresses climate, economic, and social challenges holistically and bridges the gap between available global financial resources and the needs of communities on the ground.

The financial markets boast a substantial sum of $530tn, predominantly owned by 500 global companies. We responsibly act as a conduit between these financial resources and private sector institutions and the needs of impoverished regions that require developmental interventions, particularly in conflict zones. The complexity of conflicts necessitates intricate developmental operations.

As a UN official, what is your opinion about the Arab Spring, now that 12 years have passed?

The Arab Human Development Report, issued 22 years ago, in which I had the privilege to participate under the leadership of Dr. Rima Khalaf, identified development shortcomings in the Arab region pertaining to freedom, women's empowerment, and knowledge.

The report's concluding statement continues to hold significant relevance to this day. Do you know what it was?

What was it?

The report concluded with a profound quote from Abdul Rahman Al-Kawakibi: 'This is a cry in the valley, if not heeded, it will be taken by the spears.'

Regrettably, the Arab Human Development Report of 2002 went unheeded, and as a result, we have witnessed the subsequent consequences. From the invasion of Iraq to the present day, we have endured a series of successive shocks.

The Arab Spring also brought about a widespread social movement, which history will ultimately judge, regardless of our attempts to evaluate it from moral, developmental, or other perspectives.

The prevailing concern today lies in the persistence of numerous conditions that gave rise to the Arab Spring, evident in the current reality we are facing.

We have devastated nations, impoverished or increasingly impoverished populations, and crumbling infrastructure. The developmental progress achieved in certain countries has been curtailed. This is the stark reality of our present circumstances.

Our focus must now be addressing the underlying causes of these chronic issues to navigate our current deteriorating developmental situation prudently and ensure that we learn from past mistakes, avoiding their repetition.

You certainly hear about climate change issues and challenges. Have these issues been a topic of interest during your interactions and engagements in the Arab region?

The Arab world ranks among the most water-scarce regions globally. The recurrence of drought attacks has become more severe and frequent, resulting in an already discernible negative impact on agricultural production patterns and food security throughout the Arab world.

Read more: Water woes multiply in Iraq and the greater region

In recent times, the discussion surrounding climate change has gained significant importance, aiming to raise awareness of its critical implications. In the Arab region, climate change is consistently the foremost topic addressed by officials due to its pressing nature.

Adding to the complexity, the Ukrainian war has disrupted wheat imports in a region that heavily relies on importing more than 80% of its food. We are living in a multi-crisis world, and the Arab region is vulnerable to these crises due to its heavy dependence on imports.

Read more: World leaders race to get Black Sea grain deal back on track

It is one of the poorest regions globally in terms of water resources and it lacks efficiency in utilising its water resources. Addressing this challenge leads back to issues of governance and institutional efficiency.

The United Nations recently held a meeting with experts in the presence of Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to discuss Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Has your participation in the field of Artificial Intelligence been significant? Additionally, where does the Arab region stand concerning its potential in the field of Artificial Intelligence?

The Arab region shows immense potential in the domain of Artificial Intelligence, offering opportunities for substantial and rapid advancements.

In a recent meeting with the Moroccan minister of sustainable development, I was informed about young programmers working in an AI research centre in a region near Marrakech.

Likewise, through a meeting with the Egyptian Minister of Planning, I learned about a significant group in Cairo involved in AI-related work. The upcoming Arab Human Development Report will incorporate AI to forecast vulnerabilities in the Arab region, specifically examining interconnected vulnerabilities and multi-dimensional fragility.

This does not mean studying fragility due to conflicts, economic growth, or unemployment individually but entails analysing the links between climate, population, governance, conflicts, economy, and technology over the next 15 to 20 years. The collaborative effort with leading Arab research centres will play a pivotal role in this initiative.

Read more: How the Arab world is adopting a proactive approach to AI

What about your relationship with Saudi Arabia?  Do the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 intersect with the Vision 2030 programme?

My most recent visit to Saudi Arabia was a month and a half ago, having previously visited in 2015 while working with ESCWA (Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia).

The transformations taking place in Saudi Arabia hold great significance, not only for the Kingdom itself but also for the broader Arab region.

During my visits, I had the opportunity to meet with the Saudi minister of planning and economy, who left a positive impression with his young age and visionary approach to driving the Kingdom's transformation.

His vision aims to position Saudi Arabia as a platform for change and innovation, not only regionally but also on a global scale. In our discussions, we explored extensive possibilities for cooperation and collaborative efforts to forge a strong partnership.

We have initiated a research collaboration with our counterparts in Saudi Arabia, focusing on the intersections between their national plans under the Vision 2030 initiative and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to which the Kingdom is firmly committed.

Notably, Saudi Arabia has already commenced deliberations on post-2030 strategies, which is also something we are doing at the United Nations.