Africa is back at the centre of international attention after two major events in July. The second Russia-Africa summit and then the coup d’etat in Niger could both have a significant influence on the continent’s future.
The summit confirmed, in effect, that a second scramble for Africa is underway – a fresh period of international competition for influence or control and the successor to the first scramble from 1885 to 1914. The Niger coup raised questions about the future political course the continent may be taking.
Both events relate to Russia, the summit directly and the coup indirectly. How both evolve will likely influence the role Russia aspires to play in Africa.
It is still too early to judge the impact these developments. The effect of the summit will depend on how the aspirations of both African countries and Russia, as reflected in the meeting’s concluding documents, will be translated into practical action.
Whatever happens after either the summit or the coup in terms of Africa’s geopolitics, the continent’s history over the past two centuries offers a useful guide to what may lay ahead.
The first scramble for Africa came as European colonial powers carved up the continent to exploit its rich natural resources. After that, and for the remainder of the twentieth century, came the struggle for political independence among the continent’s countries. In the process various economic and governance models were tested and mostly failed.
Africa also was a sideshow for competition between East and West during the Cold War. All of this prevented Africa from realising its true potential.
Since the turn of the 21st century, the second scramble for Africa has followed, drawing international attention back onto the continent. This time around, the competition for influence or control is not just about exploiting Africa’s natural resources, but also involves access to its markets, its labour force and its trade routes along major sea lines the Atlantic and the Indian Oceans.