Erdoğan's pragmatism of continuity

Steps to resuscitate the economy

Erdoğan's present economic team is led by Mehmet Şimşek, the new finance minister who held the same position between 2009-2015. He left active politics for a period of time claiming personal reasons but it was widely speculated that he departed because he disagreed with Erdoğan's economic policies.

Erdoğan managed to convince Şimşek to come back, promising to not interfere in his work this time. Şimşek's first statement as he stepped back into his post was that Turkey must return to rational economic policies. This was a direct reference to Erdoğan's unorthodox policies and a clear statement of blame.

On 22 May, under the new economic team, Turkey's central bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than two years, from 8.5% to 15%. This was expected but the increase was deemed as insufficient by many economic analysts. The Turkish lira has further depreciated since.

Read more: Turkey in the throes of strong economic headwinds

As of today, officially, inflation is at 39.59%. Unofficial estimates put it at 110%, which is closer to the truth.

Apart from the economy, many of the 25 million people who voted against Erdoğan are concerned that he will use his last term in office to complete the establishment of the system of the "new Turkey" that he has in mind. The main source of concern is that the president's "new Turkey" means a more conservative lifestyle.

Shifting foreign policy priorities

Throughout the last decade, Erdoğan has mobilised his masses with the motto of Turkey becoming a world power. This has made international relations and foreign policy an important part of Erdoğanism.

Since 2013, Erdoğan's foreign policy has been marked with tension on many fronts. It was only after 2021 that Erdoğan, feeling the pain of isolation, initiated a policy of rapprochement with countries with which relations were strained,

His choice of the new foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, indicates that Erdoğan intends to continue pursuing this policy, at least for the time being.

The outgoing foreign minister, Mevlut Çavuşoğlu, was no more than a mouthpiece but the new foreign minister, as the former spy chief, is very familiar with all sensitive foreign policy issues and is more assertive than his predecessor.

Meanwhile, relations with the West continue to be awkward.

Many in the European Union, Nato and the United States view Erdoğan as an anti-West maverick and even an autocrat. They feel that Turkey under Erdoğan is drifting away from the West and do not consider him a reliable partner.

This feeling is mutual.

Erdoğan believes that the West has always worked against him. He believes the US was behind the coup d'etat attempt in 2016. He also believes the EU has no intention of admitting Turkey into its grouping and also is upset that his Nato allies are supporting the YPG/PKK in Syria.

It is worth noting that many Turks, including those who do not support Erdoğan, believe that Turkey is being pushed away rather than drifting away.

Despite the mutual mistrust and dislike, neither side wants to lose the other totally. The West does not want to entirely alienate Erdoğan but also wants to keep him at arm's length. On its part, Turkey tests limits but stops short of crossing red lines.

There have been a couple of meetings between Turkey and the US after the May elections. Fidan and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met in London on the sidelines of the Ukraine Recovery Conference and their deputies met in Washington a few days later within the framework of the Turkey-US Strategic Mechanism.

Among a number of serious problems between the two Nato allies, a major issue now is Sweden's potential membership in Nato and Turkey's long-awaited purchase of F16 fighter jets.

Whether or not the issue of Sweden's membership is solved by the Nato summit in Vilnius in mid-July, will indicate the direction of relations between Turkey and the West.

The US and Nato allies are aware that the decision is entirely Erdoğan's and if he so wishes, Turkey's objections will be lifted instantly.

Turkey's EU accession talks have been frozen since 2018 because of concerns over the rule of law and democracy in Turkey, as well as, obstructions of Cyprus, Greece and France. Unless a dramatic shift on either side occurs, a change in the state of affairs looks unlikely.

Cyprus, which is already a major obstacle in Turkey-EU relations, is likely to grow into a bigger problem. Turkey, frustrated with the Greek Cypriot attitude, has now adopted a policy of recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus to form the basis of any future negotiation.

Turkey-Russia closeness remains an irritant to the West

Meanwhile, Turkey's growing closeness with Russia continues to irritate the West. Even though Turkey has been praised for its role in the grain deal, America and some other Western governments are known to caution against acting as a lifeline for Russia to bypass sanctions.

Turkey-Russia ties are basically governed by the personal relations between Erdoğan and Putin. They are very different characters but get on well as leaders. Both are outcasts in their own way and they have a very similar style of running state affairs as well as economy and business.

Just as Putin supported Erdoğan during the election process in Turkey, Erdoğan immediately called Putin and offered his support when he faced the Wagner rebellion. Erdoğan's gesture was very well received and will surely cement even stronger relations between the two leaders.

This could facilitate solutions in places like Syria but would add further strain on Erdoğan's already uncomfortable relations with the West. That is unless the West acts pragmatically and tries to make use of relations between Erdoğan and Putin.

Meanwhile, Turkish foreign policy under Erdoğan has expanded to pursue interests in Caucasia and Central Asia, as well as Africa, each in its own way and merit.

Read more: Why do so many foreign powers have military bases in Djibouti?

Asia, which has become the centrepiece of global politics, is somewhat less visible on Turkey's radar. While Çavuşoğlu introduced the "Asia Anew initiative", nothing came of it.

However, Turkey could reactivate this initiative at any time and involve itself more with China, Japan and other Asian nations.

Middle East attachment

Erdoğan is emotionally, religiously, historically and ideologically attached to the Middle East.

After the Arab Spring, Turkey under Erdoğan sided with the political Islamists, and as a result of this, relations with a number of Arab nations, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE took a big hit.

Turkey became a sanctuary for fleeing Muslim Brotherhood activists and they continued their activities, including broadcasts, from there.

As the Muslim Brotherhood failed in its efforts and inter-Arab reconciliation was achieved, Erdoğan joined the caravan to repair relations.

Erdoğan took a step back from supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, including diminishing and in some cases bringing to an end their activities in the country. These steps enabled reconciliation with several Arab countries.

Erdoğan will now want to capitalise on improved relations.

The Turkish president has set his sight on Gulf capitals and investment. Economic endeavours and opportunities are likely to form the backbone of future relations between Turkey and the Gulf countries which are seeking new investment and business opportunities with a view to economic diversification.

UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed was in Turkey recently as he watched the Champions League final in İstanbul, side by side with Erdoğan.

A few days later, Deputy President of Turkey, Cevdet Yılmaz, and Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek were received by MBZ in Abu Dhabi. It is no secret that their conversation centred on economic cooperation opportunities.

Meanwhile, Erdoğan and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi are expected to hold a summit in the near future and diplomatic relations are expected to be raised to the level of ambassador.

Libya, which has been a major irritant between Turkey and some Arab nations, including Egypt, is not so much so nowadays. Turkey is more attentive to their concerns.

The rapprochement process with Syria continues but problems remain. The road ahead is very bumpy. Too many actors with different agendas and priorities, interrelated issues and an emboldened Syrian President Bashar al-Assad complicate the already very difficult problem.

Pragmatism is one of the major assets of Erdoğan. His supporters regard him as a political genius, whereas his opponents see him as a shameless opportunist, ready to do anything for his benefit.

Erdoğan has a skill for overcoming setbacks and maintaining his support base. He has never been held accountable for the damages incurred during the periods in between.

This and the absence of a formidable opposition are likely to encourage Erdoğan to continue to do things his own way.