Jordanian Initiative ends with Iran and Hezbollah's exit from Syria

Initiative dates back to 2021

This initiative dates back to 2021 when the Jordanian government prepared an official document, published by Al Majalla. It included their vision for the Syrian solution, shared and discussed by Jordan's King Abdullah II in separate meetings with US President Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Read more: Classified document reveals details of bringing Syria back to Arab League

The document provided an analysis of the Syrian situation and proposed a "step-for-step" approach during that stage.

With the recent acceleration of Arab normalisation steps and changes in the situation in Syria and the region, Amman modified its document after consultations with Arab and Western countries, resulting in a new version that used the term "Syrian government" instead of "Syrian regime" and precisely specified the required steps from Damascus and other capitals.

Some elements of the initiative date back to the period before Syria's return to the Arab League on 7 May and President Bashar al-Assad's attendance at the Arab summit in Jeddah on the 19th of the same month. However, the initiative, which emerged after Jordanian consultations with Arab, international, and Western parties, reflects the thinking on how to overcome the current situation.

Three mini-states and five foreign armies

Currently, Syria is divided into three mini-states with at least five foreign armies, militias, and bases. Damascus does not control most of its airspace and borders, and more than half of Syrians are still displaced from their homes, with a third of them outside the country.

Tehran and Moscow support Damascus and they have a military presence in Syria. In return, there is a US-led Western military presence, sanctions, isolation of Damascus, and a decision not to contribute to reconstruction until a political solution is achieved in accordance with UN Resolution 2254.

This initiative connects all the elements of the Syrian crisis held by Damascus, its allies, and its opponents. It presents a solution vision based on a "step-for-step" approach to exit the continuous tunnel that has lasted for 12 years, burdening Syrians and neighbouring countries.

This initiative, whose complete text is published by Al Majalla today, presents a detailed proposal that includes the elements of a solution in an ideal scenario.

Grim outlook

The Jordanian Initiative, the new name for the non-paper, begins by presenting specific points about the current situation. It states that "after 12 years, there is no hope for resolving the crisis, and there is no comprehensive strategy to achieve a political solution, while the suffering of the Syrian people continues to escalate".

There are "6.7 million refugees, 6.8 million internally displaced persons within Syria, and 15.3 million in need of humanitarian assistance, with 90% living below the poverty line."

Read more: From refugees to crippling poverty, a look at Syria's never-ending humanitarian crisis

The initiative points out that "years of instability have led to increased drug trafficking across Syria's borders, the resurgence of terrorist organisations, the growing influence of Iran, the limited return of refugees and displaced persons, and a decline in global support for refugees and host countries."

Five points of agreement

The initiative states that the required action is to "find a comprehensive, humanitarian, and political solution based on UN Security Council Resolution 2254", it also mentions that "we all agree" (meaning the concerned external parties) on five points: "There is no military solution to end the crisis. Changing the regime is not an efficient goal. UN Security Council Resolution 2254 is the best way forward. The current situation causes additional suffering for Syrians and strengthens the opponents. Decreasing or delaying intervention will lead to consequences that may be difficult to alter."

Initially, the creators of the initiative proposed supporting the "step-for-step" approach, proposed by the UN envoy Geir Pedersen, to reach a political solution based on UN Security Council Resolution 2254, mobilise support for a new initiative among Arab, regional, and international partners who share similar ways of thinking, reach an agreement on a mechanism for the involvement of the Syrian government based on requests and proposals, and work on obtaining Russia's approval for this approach.

Three Levels

The "initiative" outlines three levels of actions within the framework of requests and proposals: politically, "the overarching goal is to achieve a political solution that preserves the unity, integrity, and sovereignty of Syria, gradually addresses all the consequences of the crisis, and restores Syria's security, stability, and regional standing".

Additionally, the goal is to present a vision for the direct engagement of several Arab countries with the Syrian government, emphasising that "this Arab-led approach must be gradual, focusing first on alleviating the suffering of Syrians."

"It must also define the steps that will support counter-terrorism efforts, limit the growing Iranian influence, and halt the deterioration that harms our common interests."

In terms of security and military aspects, the initiative requests the implementation of a ceasefire across all Syrian territories and "addressing the issue of foreign terrorist fighters, the issue of Iranian presence, and the concerns of neighbouring countries (including drug trafficking)."

On the humanitarian front, the initiative aims for a gradual shift in the behaviour of the Syrian government in exchange for carefully defined incentives that serve the interests of the Syrian people and create a conducive environment for the voluntary return of displaced persons and refugees.

In this regard, the United Nations would deliver all humanitarian support. Later discussions could explore the possibility of incorporating the agreement into a United Nations resolution.

Three Stages

The "initiative" defines three stages of action without specifying a general timeline or individual timelines for each of the three stages, which include the near, medium, and far futures.

The first stage is prepared through "confidence-building steps" in accordance with paragraph 10 of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254, which "emphasises the necessity for all parties in Syria to take confidence-building steps to contribute to the development of the political process and to achieve a permanent ceasefire."

"It calls on all states to use their influence with the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition to advance the peace process, confidence-building steps, and a ceasefire."

The "initiative" states that "confidence-building steps should bridge the trust gap and encourage gradual positive behaviour by the Syrian government in response to incentives from the international community in the form of reciprocal steps", with the United Nations playing a role in this stage.

Humanitarian requirements

The initiative specifies matters related to the humanitarian file, as it requests Damascus to grant the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and relevant UN bodies the right to access all government-controlled areas and facilitate humanitarian aid through all means, including cross-border operations, cross-lines operations, and early recovery projects with pilot projects in southern Syria (near the Jordanian border).

It also calls for Damascus to facilitate the access of international and local humanitarian and development organisations and active partners to areas under the control of the Syrian government, reach an agreement with UN-affiliated entities on a mechanism that allows donors to ensure that assistance reaches the intended final beneficiaries, and facilitate the provision of humanitarian aid to residents in IDPs camps through UN agencies present in Syria.

In return, the creators of the initiative offer to invest in early recovery projects in needy areas in Syria, including the health, education, and housing sectors, as indicated in United Nations Security Council Resolution No. 2642, and to increase humanitarian aid to Syria, including the areas under the control of the Syrian government, and the areas of southern Syria inclusively.

They also offer that the United Nations bodies coordinate with the Syrian government regarding projects and the delivery of aid inside Syria, in addition to creating a safe channel that allows humanitarian bodies and civilians to transfer money to the areas controlled by the Syrian government.

This is to facilitate humanitarian aid and transaction transfers and devise a specific humanitarian mechanism that allows the export of civilian-use items to Syria, such as specific medications, hospital equipment, agricultural supplies, and pharmaceutical supplies (currently prohibited because they are considered multi-use).

Practical support for the initiative

This initiative largely reflects Arab thinking, which currently focuses on the humanitarian aspect, particularly the return of refugees. The initiative aligns with undisclosed movements involving many participants, including the UN Commissioner for Humanitarian Affairs, Martin Griffiths, and his meetings with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Jordanian and Arab officials.

These come with the aim of establishing a United Nations fund that contributes to financing projects that go beyond the previous mandate to facilitate the recovery of Syrians, away from Western sanctions, ensuring Damascus's continuous allowance of the opening of two crossings for humanitarian aid through Turkey, and the extension of Washington's decision to grant exemptions from sanctions after their terms (opening of crossings and exceptions to sanctions) expire next August.

Detainees and missing persons

The table, which falls within the first short-term stage, includes Damascus providing detailed information to the United Nations Office on the beneficiaries of the presidential amnesty issued by al-Assad last year, i.e. the numbers of the individuals who were released and the process of benefiting from the amnesty.

Additionally, it includes the release of "arbitrarily detained individuals" on a wide scale as part of the presidential amnesty. It also entails agreeing on the gradual release of detainees, including setting a schedule for releasing groups of a few hundred detainees and cooperating with the International Committee of the Red Cross to ascertain the whereabouts and fate of the missing and kidnapped individuals.

The initiative states that all Syrian parties and Turkey must be urged to cooperate in the release of detainees, including military and security detainees working for the Syrian army and the Syrian government.

It further suggests that the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and relevant United Nations bodies provide support and assistance to released individuals to facilitate their reintegration into their communities.

The International Committee of the Red Cross and the relevant United Nations bodies are also expected to cooperate with the Syrian government in disseminating information regarding the missing individuals and those who benefit from the presidential amnesty.

The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, had issued a report recommending the formation of a new international body, through the United Nations General Assembly, to clarify the fates and whereabouts of persons considered missing in Syria and provide appropriate support for them, their families, and the families of the victims.

Return of refugees and displaced persons

In practical terms, Arab countries prioritise the issue of refugee return and initiate a flagship project to return 1,000 Syrian refugees from Jordan with UN support and funding. This project would entail exceptions from sanctions in exchange for guarantees from Damascus and its allies.

In theory, the initiative states that the Syrian government is required to develop a detailed plan to facilitate the voluntary return of refugees under the supervision of the United Nations, to grant the UNHCR and relevant United Nations agencies access to the families, and to acknowledge the mandate of the UNHCR to "monitor the situation after the return."

It also calls for President al-Assad to issue a decree ensuring the safety and security of the returnees, acknowledging their rights and the rights of the refugees and internally displaced persons to their lands and properties, facilitating the issuance of identity cards and all other civil documents, facilitating the process of administrative claims for returnees, and facilitating the return of the internally displaced persons to their homes.

In return, donors and relevant United Nations agencies, in coordination with the Syrian government, would invest in areas where refugees are expected to return to improve the resilience of communities and livelihood opportunities.

They would design a pilot project for the return of refugees and displaced persons, starting from southern Syria. (Here, we are talking about a thousand people in a group that does not fall under the compulsory military service age and who are not pursued by the security forces).

Among the other incentives, Arab countries would support the Syrian government in maintaining public facilities and services in the areas to which refugees and displaced persons are expected to return. The UNHCR and humanitarian agencies would coordinate with the Syrian authorities regarding the return of refugees.

Additionally, countries with Syrian consulates and embassies would facilitate consular relations with Syria, allow the opening of new consulates to serve Syrians abroad and provide mechanisms for facilities maintenance projects for humanitarian purposes, such as power stations and dams, which are currently under Western sanctions.

The Second Stage: Iran and Drugs

Upon the successful completion of the first stage, the implementation of the second stage related to the security and military dimensions, would begin.

The steps that need to be agreed upon between the concerned countries include Damascus undertaking certain actions, including "consenting to a comprehensive ceasefire in all Syrian territories, halting all military operations related to armed conflict, except for combat training operations, declaring a freeze on military conscription for a period of at least one year, and reducing the number of security checkpoints in agreed-upon civilian areas.

This stage also includes steps to address the Iranian presence in Syria, including:

• Expelling Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders and their forces.
• Withdrawing all non-Syrian military and security elements from the border areas with neighbouring countries.
• Preventing Iran-affiliated militias from using Syria as a base for launching attacks using drones and cross-border attacks.
• Reducing Iranian military equipment in Syria in terms of geographic locations and types of weapons"

It also includes: "Addressing the security concerns of neighbouring countries concerning border security, as well as dismantling drug trafficking networks" and "Cooperation to overcome terrorism and address the issue of foreign terrorist fighters through sharing security information about terrorist groups and their connections to international recruitment and financing networks."

Read more: Does al-Assad hold the keys to dismantling the Captagon trade?

In return, the creators of the Jordanian initiative and its partners pledge to call on all Syrian parties, including those in control of north-eastern Syria, to abide by the declared ceasefire on all Syrian territory.

This ceasefire can be declared through a United Nations Security Council resolution and reviving the work of Syrian public organizations and the civil service in northern Syria, provided that schools in northern Syria follow the Syrian curricula.

It can also be declared through establishing coordination channels between the Syrian army and security agencies and their counterparts in neighbouring countries to ensure border security and to counter cross-border threats (i.e., terrorism and drug trafficking).

Contrary to expectations, the issue of drugs seems to have less importance in this context compared to its media coverage and social media discussions.

The initiative emphasises the need for all concerned parties, particularly those with a military presence in Syria, to respect the declared ceasefire. This entails ceasing air movements over Syria, except for combat training operations.

Furthermore, it urges coordination between these parties and the Syrian government to address the issue of detained Islamic State fighters and their families in camps such as al-Hol and other detention facilities in Syria.

The initiative also calls for financing projects aimed at stabilising areas liberated from IS and currently under the control of the Syrian government, as well as working to maintain the authority of the Syrian government in areas outside its control within Syria.

The third stage: Reconciliation and reform

The third stage of the initiative, focusing on reconciliation and reform, encompasses two dimensions. The first dimension pertains to the internal situation and outlines the expected steps for Damascus. These steps include adopting organised reforms to ensure good governance and prevent persecution, engaging in reconciliation efforts with the old opposition and various components of Syrian society, and reaching an inclusive formula for governance in Syria.

Additional expectations include cooperating in the investigation of human rights violations, developing accountability measures, and conducting elections supervised by the United Nations, and fulfilling Syria's obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention by fully cooperating with the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

Regarding the "incentives," the initiative suggests a gradual easing of sanctions on Syria as a means to encourage progress. This easing begins with facilitating trade in goods through third parties and lifting sanctions on Syrian public utilities, including the Central Bank, government agencies, and officials.

It also emphasises the importance of Syrian government participation at an elevated political level, such as being invited by Arab countries to regional meetings and discussions.

The last part may be outdated now, as the Arab League decided on May 7, 2023, to return Syria to the League, and President al-Assad attended in deed the Arab summit in Jeddah on 19 May 2023.

Furthermore, the initiative includes provisions for Arab countries to facilitate trade with Syria, specifically for goods exempt from sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union, such as food and medicine.

Additionally, it encourages dialogue between Syrian parties in north-eastern Syria and the Syrian government, as well as explores the possibility of removing the Syria item from the agenda of international forums and bodies.

However, the potential removal is contingent upon the Syrian government's cooperation in fulfilling its obligations towards these bodies and the international community.

End goal: Withdrawal and integration

The third stage, the long term, is the most complex because it concerns the role of foreign powers, including Damascus's allies. The initiative calls on these parties to declare an end to all military and security operations related to the armed conflict in Syria, except for combat training operations against parties designated by the United Nations.

It also calls on Iran to withdraw all its military and security assets from Syria, and on Hezbollah and other Shiite militias to withdraw from Syria and declare their commitment to positive and effective contribution to regional and international security and stability.

In response, the initiative proposes the withdrawal of all foreign forces and foreign fighters from Syrian territories that they entered after 2011, including north-eastern Syria and the American al-Tanf base.

It also suggests lifting sanctions on Syria in accordance with the national laws and regulations of each country involved and calls on donors to provide financial support for the reconstruction of Syria.

Following the "end of military operations," the initiative suggests the final stage of "political reintegration." This stage entails the Syrian government committing to positively and effectively contribute to regional and international security and stability.

In return, the initiative suggests that all countries resume diplomatic relations with Syria and welcome its re-entry into international forums, including the Arab League.