Desperate Syrians will continue to risk their lives at sea

The Syrian refugee crisis has displaced over 13 million people, with neighbouring nations hosting 5.6 million refugees, the largest globally. Turkey has the highest number of Syrian refugees among these countries, while Lebanon and Jordan have the highest percentage of refugees relative to their own populations.

Read more: Syrians constitute the largest refugee population in the world

Despite pockets of relative calm in Syria since 2018, the overall security situation in the country remains volatile. The United Nations emphasises the need for adequate protection measures before supporting large-scale repatriation efforts and ensuring the safety of those who return.

In an effort to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees, Arab states, particularly those hosting refugees, are leveraging the process of normalisation with the Syrian regime.

Pilot repatriation programme

During the Arab foreign ministers meeting in Amman, the conditions for Syria's readmission to the Arab League were outlined. As part of this agreement, a pilot programme will be implemented to repatriate 1,000 Syrians, serving as a test to gauge the feasibility of larger-scale returns.

However, the exact reforms requested by Arab states to ensure the safe return of refugees to Syria and the mechanisms for measuring and enforcing these reforms remain unclear.

While these details are likely still under discussion, it is crucial to note that obtaining promises from the Syrian regime was the easy part while hammering out the specific measures to ensure the safety of returnees poses the real challenge.

The regime's official narrative so far suggests a reluctance to take responsibility while expecting to reap rewards. This sentiment was evident in official regime statements, including those made at the Arab summit, where they claimed to have fulfilled their obligations in welcoming refugees back.

Instead, they cited the lack of reconstruction funds and international sanctions that need to be resolved for refugees to return.

However, EU and US officials consistently oppose this demand due to the regime's ongoing violations against returnees, among others. Additionally, the sanctions and funding are tied to achieving a political solution in Syria, which the regime continues to evade.

Read more: How the Caesar Act restricts normalisation with Syria

Refugees worry about forced returns

In light of this standstill, Syrian refugees in the region fear that host governments will exploit al-Assad's return to the Arab League to force refugees back without adequate protection assurances.

These concerns are fuelled by ongoing bilateral efforts to strike deals with Damascus for mass repatriation. While Lebanon is exploring various methods to expedite such a deal, Erdogan has pledged, following the elections, to ensure the voluntary return of one million Syrians within a year.

Read more: Syrian refugees in Turkey express worry ahead of crucial vote

A recent survey conducted by the UN among Syrian refugees revealed that only 1.1% of respondents stated their intention to return to Syria within the next year.  Similarly, only 56% expressed hope of returning to Syria someday.

These figures indicate that it will be extremely challenging for governments to repatriate Syrian refugees in large numbers, particularly on a voluntary basis. This accounts for the reported increase in systematic deportations of refugees from Lebanon and Turkey, further exacerbating their plight.

In essence, Syrian refugees not only face a diminishing hope for a better future in Syria, but their chances of evading forced repatriation to the regime they are fleeing are rapidly diminishing.

As long as viable alternatives for ensuring their safety and securing their children's future remain elusive, the continuous influx of Syrian refugees towards Europe appears inevitable.

Some may be fortunate enough to reach the shores alive, while others tragically arrive as casualties, their deaths serving as a desperate plea for attention in the headlines.