Blinken visits China in attempt repair to rock-bottom relationship

American suspicions about Beijing's ultimate intentions towards the West have not been helped by Chinese President Xi Jinping's public declarations of support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict, even if Xi's preferred outcome is for a negotiated settlement between Moscow and Kyiv.

With both sides recognising ties are at an all-time low, raising the possibility of a direct military confrontation between the US and China, there is a growing awareness by both sides that steps must be taken to defuse tensions, and mechanisms established to improve ties.

A much-needed opportunity to defuse tensions

Blinken's eventual arrival in Beijing this week, therefore, provided both sides with a much-needed opportunity to take stock and take the first tentative steps towards repairing the diplomatic divide.

If Blinken's arrival hardly merited comparisons with former US President Richard Nixon's groundbreaking visit to China in 1972 to meet with Mao Zedong, ending decades of no communication between the two countries, the US Secretary of State's mission nevertheless has the potential to defuse tensions.

Read more: 51 years after Nixon's groundbreaking visit, China-US relations at an all-time low

A mark of the significance of Blinken's visit was the fact that he met with Xi himself, who would normally only engage directly with other heads of state.

But such is the importance for both sides of de-escalating tensions that Xi took advantage of Blinken's presence to engage directly with the US envoy with the aim of finding common ground that the two countries could use to improve ties.

Blinken is the first US Secretary of State to visit China in five years. A combination of the lockdowns caused by the coronavirus lockdowns, together with China's more assertive posture in the South China Sea, has previously limited opportunities for the two sides to engage.

The significance of Blinken's visit, therefore, was reflected in the fact during his two-day visit he held extended talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang as well as a working dinner with other officials at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse.

According to US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, Blinken's talks with Qin were "candid, substantive and constructive", although few details were provided.

"The Secretary emphasised the importance of diplomacy and maintaining open channels of communication across the full range of issues to reduce the risk of misperception and miscalculation," Miller said in a written statement late Sunday.

Blinken, the spokesman added, "raised a number of issues of concern, as well as opportunities to explore cooperation on shared transnational issues with the PRC where our interests align."

China's desire to improve ties was reflected in comments made by Qin to Chinese state media. Conceding that Sino-US relations were "at the lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic relations. This does not conform to the fundamental interests of the two peoples, nor does it meet the common expectations of the international community."

"China is committed to building a stable, predictable and constructive Sino-US relationship. It is hoped that the US side will uphold an objective and rational understanding of China, meet China halfway, maintain the political foundation of Sino-US relations, and handle unexpected incidents calmly, professionally and rationally," the Chinese foreign minister added.

Beijing softens rhetoric

Qin's more emollient tone following his talks with Blinken was certainly in stark contrast to the more uncompromising pre-summit telephone conversation he had with Blinken prior to his arrival in Beijing, during which he emphasised that China would not budge on "core interests", such as the reunification of Taiwan with the Chinese mainland.

Qin called Taiwan "the core of China's core interests, the most important issue in Sino-US relations, and the most prominent risk." 

By far the most important moment during Blinken's visit, though, was his meeting with Xi, a hugely significant event as it indicated a willingness on the part of the Chinese leader to seek a more constructive relationship with Washington.

Speaking after the meeting in Beijing's Great Hall of the People, Xi said it was "very good"  that the two nations had reached agreements on "some specific issues", without specifying which.

There was disappointment from the American delegation, though, after the visit ended without an agreement to restart communication between the militaries of the two nations — a key goal for the White House.

"It is absolutely vital that we have these kinds of communications," Blinken remarked. "This is something we're going to keep working on."

Blinken said he had agreed with Xi to try and "stabilise" relations, which have been marred by clashes over spy balloons, Taiwan, Ukraine and human rights.

Blinken's efforts drew praise from US President Joe Biden, who had earlier told reporters that he was "hoping that over the next several months, I'll be meeting with Xi again and talking about legitimate differences we have, but also how ... to get along."

Biden said Blinken "did a hell of a job" during his visit to Beijing. The US president added: "We're on the right trail here."

Washington views direct communication between the US and Chinese militaries as vital to avoiding mishaps over Taiwan or in the South China Sea that could spark physical clashes between the world's largest economies.

Earlier this month, a Chinese navy ship sailed within 140 metres of a US Navy destroyer in a near-collision, the second close encounter between the two militaries within a fortnight.

US defence officials say Chinese officials have refused phone calls since Blinken cancelled a planned trip to Beijing earlier this year due to the Chinese spy balloon. Beijing asserts it was a weather balloon.

Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu also declined to meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore earlier at the start of the month, with Li instead using the forum to accuse the United States of "double standards."

There have been recent high-level contacts, including a trip to China by CIA chief William Burns in May, a visit to the US by China's commerce minister, and a meeting in Vienna Austria between senior Chinese officials and Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

Reuters news agency quoted a senior State Department official as telling reporters during a refuelling stop in Tokyo that Washington and Beijing understand they need to communicate more.

"There's a recognition on both sides that we do need to have senior-level channels of communication," the official said.

"That we are at an important point in the relationship where I think reducing the risk of miscalculation, or as our Chinese friends often say, stopping the downward spiral in the relationship, is something that's important," the official said.

"Hope this meeting can help steer China-US relations back to what the two Presidents agreed upon in Bali," tweeted Chinese assistant foreign minister Hua Chunying.

The current attempt to repair relations can be traced back to Biden's meeting with Xi on the sidelines of a summit of the Group of 20 big economies in November, when they agreed to try to restore dialogue despite sharp differences.

Now he two leaders have opportunities to meet later this year, including at the Group of 20 leaders' gathering in September in New Delhi and at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in November in San Francisco. As Winston Churchill famously observed, "jaw jaw is far better than war war".