Putin’s resolve on display in Moscow’s Red Square

From Putin's perspective, the war against Ukraine is not just aimed at seizing control of Ukrainian territory: it amounts to a battle for the future of Russia itself. 

Addressing the hundreds of thousands of military personnel who have been deployed in support of Russia's war effort in Ukraine, Putin declared: "There is nothing more important now than your combat effort.The security of the country rests on you today, the future of our statehood and our people depend on you."

Putin also used his 10-minute speech in Red Square to repeat his argument that it is the West, and not Russia, that is ultimately to blame for provoking the war in Ukraine through its constant attempts to expand its influence further eastwards through institutions such as Nato and the European Union.

A "real war has been unleashed against Russia," he said, adding that the war in Ukraine has placed the global community "at a breaking point", while Russia had  "repulsed international terrorism."

Critical juncture

With neither side in the conflict seemingly displaying any interest in seeking a negotiated end to the fighting, the war is approaching a critical juncture, with both sides seeking to gain the military initiative.

Russia's determination to persist with its military effort has been reflected in the recent series of missile attacks it has carried out against a number of Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kyiv.

While most of the attacks — which have included significant numbers of Iranian-made drones  —  have been foiled by Ukraine's anti-missile defences, they nevertheless demonstrate the Kremlin's desire to continue attacking key Ukrainian infrastructure.

Ukraine, too, has been busy attacking key Russian targets ahead of its long-awaited spring offensive. A Ukrainian attack on a major Russian oil depot in Crimea was aimed at disrupting the Russian military's supply lines, while Ukraine has been accused of carrying out further acts of sabotage behind Russian lines.

Nevertheless, serious questions remain about the ability of both sides to make a decisive military breakthrough that enables them to declare victory, thereby bringing hostilities to an end.

Despite the bravado of Putin's comments at the Victory Day parade this week, the Russian military is still struggling to rebuild its fighting strength following the major losses it has suffered during the past year.

A sign of Moscow's growing desperation can be seen in the latest reports that the Russian military has turned its attention to recruiting fresh troops from Asia as it is finding it increasingly difficult to persuade young Russians to fight in Ukraine.

Kyiv, too, is struggling to maintain the initiative it gained at the end of last year when the Ukrainian military succeeded in making a number of significant gains in the north and south, capturing the cities of Kharkiv and Kherson respectively.

Severe weapons shortages are believed to be the reason Kyiv has delayed its long-expected spring counter-offensive to recapture Russian-occupied territory in the Donbas region, to the extent that many military commentators are now openly questioning whether Kyiv has the ability to make further breakthroughs.

Fears over deadlock

With neither side seemingly capable of making a decisive breakthrough, there are mounting fears that the deadlock could result in the war lasting indefinitely, a prospect that has been greeted with dismay by many European leaders who fear any prolonging of the conflict could cause another energy crisis next winter.

Goldman Sachs has warned that European gas prices could nearly treble this winter if the conflict continues.

This gloomy outlook was confirmed by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in an interview published by Spanish daily El Pais, who warned that peace negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine were "not possible at this moment."

"It is clear that the (two) parties are completely absorbed in this war" and "convinced that they can win," he said.

In such circumstances, therefore, world leaders need to get used to the idea that the Ukraine conflict is not about to end any time soon, and take the appropriate steps to ensure their citizens are properly protected from any future challenges that are created by this brutal and unremitting war.