‘Saudi Arabia can play a crucial role in mediating Sudan conflict’

Sir William made his comments after Saudi Arabia has played a prominent role in helping to evacuate thousands of people from the war-stricken country.

At the end of last month the Saudis were reported to have evacuated more than 3,000 people from Port Sudan, including Saudi nationals as well as individuals from 80 other nationalities.

Apart from significantly raising Saudi Arabia's standing on the international stage, Sir William believes the Saudis' prominent role in spearheading the evacuation of people trying to flee the recent upsurge in fighting between rival Sudanese forces has raised the possibility that the Kingdom could use its influence to end the fighting.

"This is a big opportunity for the Saudis to mount a big humanitarian exercise," explained Sir William.

"The Saudis have the ability to send boats to the port in Sudan and take out anybody who wants to leave. They can temporarily house them in Jeddah until it is possible to rehouse them in their own countries."

The only reservation about the Saudis deepening their involvement in the Sudan crisis, according to Sir William, is the upcoming Hajj season, when millions of Muslims are due to visit the region next month as part of the annual pilgrimage.

Potential to play bigger role

Apart from playing a prominent role in the international humanitarian operation to assist civilians caught up in the fighting in Sudan, Sir William also believes Riyadh can use its influence to mediate an end to the fighting.

"There is a naked struggle for power taking place in Sudan with two military factions  fighting for control," said Sir William.

"If you are looking for people to put pressure on them, the Saudis undoubtedly have a role to play."

"You have the Sudanese army with a long history of coup d'etats and who have been in charge for quite some time. And you have the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). They are both fighting it out to be top dog, none of which relates to the internationally-supported transition to civilian rule."

Read more: Sudan's perilous road ahead

"It seems to me that neither side can win militarily, but they have not come to that conclusion yet," he explained.

"If you got the Saudis,  as well as the Emiratis and Egyptians, involved in peace talks, it might be possible to exercise some influence over the warring parties." 

Sir William has personal experience of participating in peace efforts involving Sudan, dating back to the period he served as British ambassador to Khartoum between 2002-5.

"When I was based in Khartoum, we tried to end the civil war, which we did with a comprehensive peace agreement signed in 2005," he explained.

"That brought an end to the fighting between the north and the south and paved the way for a referendum in 2011 which ended with the south voting to secede and form the republic of South Sudan," he said.

While the current security situation in Sudan — where both sides are regularly committing ceasefire violations — does not offer much hope of a diplomatic solution being found in the near future, Sir William still believes it might be possible in the long term to involve the same organisations that helped to resolve the Sudan conflict in the 2000s to resolve the standoff between the Sudanese military and the RSF.

Military leaders at loggerheads

"You have two armed factions that appear to have no intention of handing over to the civilians, so it is hard to see how you can get a deal here," he explained.

"Can you go back to the status quo ante to 2019 when the military factions agreed to hand over to civilian rule? Can you go back to 2021 when the country was run by military factions,  and they had an uneasy truce with each other?"

In this context, Sir William believes Saudi Arabia could play an important intermediary role because Riyadh has dealt with both the Sudanese military and the RSF.

"The Saudis have good contacts with the RSF because it provided troops for the war in Yemen, and they also have good contacts with the army."

Regional organisations can also play a role

Sir William also believes there is an important role for regional organisations, such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in Eastern Africa (IGAD) which played an important role in facilitating the negotiations that helped end the Sudan conflict more than a decade ago.

"IGAD was very active in bringing an end to the Sudanese civil war," recalled Sir William.

"That is quite a good mechanism, as it has the support of the African Union and the United Nations. If you got the Saudis, the Emiratis and the Egyptians on board as well, they could each exercise influence on the parties."

"But what you need now is an extension to the ceasefire, where both sides agree to stop fighting and allow humanitarian assistance to be delivered by the UN and other international bodies, and then there is some sort of peace talks under IGAD auspices. This strikes me as a potentially useful mechanism."

Read more: Where is the conflict in Sudan heading?

It remains to be seen whether such an initiative would appeal to the warring parties in Sudan, both of which seem determined to achieve their goals through force of arms.

Even so, Sir William thinks it is worth giving it a go.

"It crucially requires the agreement of both parties," he said.

 "They will only agree to this if they think they have much to gain from participating in such a mechanism."