Politics

IS under unprecedented strain after yet another leader killed

On 30 April, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that the global leader of the Islamic State (IS), Abu al-Hussein al-Qurayshi was dead, having been killed in a Turkish intelligence operation in northern Syria on 29 April

Majalla

This is the third IS leader to have been killed in 14 months — placing the leadership of the worldwide jihadist movement under serious and unprecedented strain.

IS under unprecedented strain after yet another leader killed

Charles Lister

last update on 01 May 2023

In a statement late on 30 April, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that the global leader of the Islamic State (IS), Abu al-Hussein al-Qurayshi was dead, having been killed in a Turkish intelligence operation in northern Syria on 29 April.

According to Turkish sources, covert operatives from the National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) had been monitoring the IS leader for several weeks.

If Turkey’s claims are corroborated, this would represent the third IS leader to have been killed in 14 months — placing the leadership of the worldwide jihadist movement under serious and unprecedented strain.

Coming amid the height of election season in Turkey, such a counter-terrorism achievement also looks set to offer Erdogan a new playing card to exploit — particularly given news that a 29 April Turkish drone strike near Kobani also killed Abdullah Sabri, the alleged intelligence chief of the People’s Defense Units (YPG).

According to Syrian opposition sources in the Jandaris area, elite MIT paramilitaries sealed off the main roads leading to a compound north of the town late on 28 April. The compound itself — located in a rural location surrounded by olive groves — was then besieged and its occupants ordered to surrender.

A picture shows the Kurdish-run al-Hol camp, which holds relatives of suspected Islamic State (IS) group fighters in the northeastern Hasakeh governorate, during a security operation by the Kurdish Asayish security forces.

After a short period of time, heavy clashes erupted, triggered by gunfire from within the compound. Shortly thereafter, Abu al-Hussein al-Qurayshi blew himself up in the front reception room facing the compound gates. The compound remained sealed off from public access the next day, as evidence was collected from the building.

Almost nothing is known about Abu al-Hussein’s identity. In the IS official announcement declaring his succession to leadership in late-November 2022, the terror group claimed only that he was a veteran of the jihadist struggle. He is thought to be Iraqi, but that has been the extent of public information.

Such level of mystery is not reflective of the Islamic State’s ability to shroud its leaders in secrecy — it is the consequence of the severe pressure placed on its leadership in recent years.

The Islamic State’s notorious leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in north-western Syria in October 2019; his successor Abu Ibrahim al-Qurayshi was killed in February 2022; and his successor Abu al-Hassan al-Qurayshi was killed just eight months later in southern Syria in October 2022, leading to Abu al-Hussein’s rise to power.

The Islamic State's notorious leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in north-western Syria in October 2019; his successor Abu Ibrahim al-Qurayshi was killed in February 2022; and his successor Abu al-Hassan al-Qurayshi was killed just eight months later in southern Syria in October 2022, leading to Abu al-Hussein's rise to power.

ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is believed to have been killed in a US military raid, two sources say. Final confirmation is still pending. https://t.co/jzNg0s7nWy pic.twitter.com/gYIh5kkWc0
— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) October 27, 2019

Adding to pressure on the Islamic State's highest levels of leadership is the sustained campaign being fought by US troops and the Syrian Democratic Forces against its mid-level operational command. Over the past year, this has placed IS under significant strain.

Beyond testing the Islamic State's ability to retain command and control over its hundreds of cells across Syria and Iraq, the acute pressure on the group's leadership structures has also sown tensions within the group.

According to internal leaks, the Islamic State's operational structure evolved in 2021 and 2022, leaving activities in Iraq controlled by a separate "office" to activities in Syria, Lebanon and Turkey.

The establishment of these two distinct offices, known as Bilad al-Rafidayn and Ardh al-Mubarakah, respectively, has blurred the lines that previously allowed centralised and coordinated planning across country borders.

According to some sources, Abu al-Hassan and Abu al-Hussein's appointments as IS leader were decided by the Ardh al-Mubarakah office, without consultation with the Bilad al-Rafidayn office in Iraq – traditionally home to the Islamic State's core powers.

A number of high-profile IS attacks and plots, including the January 2022 assault on Ghweiran Prison in Hasakeh were planned by the Ardh al-Mubarakah office, without input from IS command structures in Iraq, even though the latter was then allegedly expected to harbour several senior escapees.

Such structural tensions and operational planning inconsistencies would be a problem by themselves, but when combined with the severe degradation of leadership figures, IS is in bad shape.

Such structural tensions and operational planning inconsistencies would be a problem by themselves, but when combined with the severe degradation of leadership figures, IS is in bad shape.

Beyond the Islamic State's considerable successes abroad — particularly in Africa — the one source of optimism for the group lies in areas controlled by the Syrian regime.

A picture taken on October 20, 2017, shows Islamic State group writting on a wall in the recently seized strategic Syrian town of Mayadeen.

Since its territorial defeat was sealed in the village of al-Baghouz in early-2019, the jihadist group has sustained a consistent level of operations in Syria's regime-controlled badiya.

Over the past 12 months, IS has markedly expanded its operational reach there, throughout significant swathes of Hama, Homs, Raqqa and Deir ez Zour, as well as re-established a deadly presence in Dara'a in the south.

While IS struggles to deal with counter-terrorism pressure in Iraq and Syria's north-east, the group has returned to controlling territory in Syrian regime-controlled areas. IS just recently defeated a six-week counter-offensive by the Syrian army, the National Defence Force, the Wagner Group, and the Russian Air Force.

Given the pace of IS leadership losses and the extent of its structural flux, it is impossible to predict who might succeed Abu al-Hussein as IS leader.

Nevertheless, despite the group's challenging circumstances in Iraq and much of Syria, the jihadist movement remains strong abroad – particularly in Afghanistan and Nigeria, as well as in places like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Egypt, Mali and Somalia.

When Abu al-Hussein became leader in November 2022, he was met with a tidal wave of pledges of allegiance from dozens of IS units and cells around the world, all within three weeks. Assuming he was indeed just recently killed, then the same can be expected this time around, for Abu al-Hussein's successor.

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