Europe has long road ahead in push for strategic independencehttps://en.majalla.com/node/290426/politics/europe-has-long-road-ahead-push-strategic-independence
On 9 April 2023, French President Macron reiterated his focus on achieving strategic independence for Europe during his return from a state visit to China.
He emphasised the importance of Europe becoming less reliant on American power and becoming a third pole between the United States and China to avoid potential crises in the continent.
However, his statements sparked controversy both domestically and internationally, with some labelling his position as "irresponsible" and warning that it could undermine Western unity during a time of heightened tensions over Ukraine and Taiwan.
Nonetheless, achieving European strategic independence is a complex goal — complicated not only by Washington's opposition but also by structural flaws within the European Union, divisions within Europe itself, and the German obstacle.
The idea of European strategic independence has a long history dating back to the early years of the Fifth Republic in France.
General Charles de Gaulle proposed this idea in the Elysée Treaty with German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer in 1963, but the German Bundestag added a clause to the treaty linking European cooperation to Nato, effectively undermining its strategic significance.
Although France has long advocated for a strong Europe, Germany wanted any strategy to be under the umbrella of Nato. This difference in approach planted the seeds for future tension between Paris and Berlin.
On Germany’s part, its reluctance to embrace independence is understandable given its familiarity with confederal or federal forms of governance dating back to the imperial era. By contrast, France has traditionally favoured a more centralised form of government.
Moreover, German reservation over European independence is also based on the ongoing competition between France and Germany for leadership on the continent. This contributes to Germany’s scepticism over France’s motives in its push for independence.
German reservation over European independence is also based on the ongoing competition between France and Germany for leadership on the continent. This contributes to Germany's scepticism over France's motives in its push for independence.
This longstanding dispute between France and Germany has continued unabated, except for a brief period of cooperation after the end of the Cold War. Since Macron's election in 2017 and the start of the Ukraine conflict, Germany has rejected his calls for European strategic independence.
This may be partially attributed to Germany's past and its alignment with US policies regarding Ukraine due to the country's World War II commitments. Moreover, Germany's reliance on both American protection and energy sources from Russia has allowed it to become a leading European economic and industrial power.
A north-east shift
Paris has questioned Berlin's understanding of political relations in Europe and the role of the European Union, particularly as Germany has turned its focus to the north-east of the continent.
Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, France's President Emmanuel Macron, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz attend the North Sea summit in Ostend, on April 24, 2023.
This area — which former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld referred to as "New Europe" or "Young Europe"— has become increasingly important and just so happens to align with Germany's traditional sphere of influence.
This has led observers to question Germany's relationship with Russia, with many foreshadowing a closer relationship between the two countries — particularly after the war in Ukraine.
Germany's north-east shift has led observers to question its relationship with Russia, with many foreshadowing a closer relationship between the two countries — particularly after the war in Ukraine.
In practical terms, the accession of central and eastern European countries to the European Union since the fall of the Berlin Wall has shifted Europe's centre of gravity towards the north and east.
The consequences of the Ukraine conflict have further reinforced this shift, with Nato strengthening its eastern front led by Poland.
#NATO military exercise #Orion hits the streets of #French cities. 12,000 troops from France, Britain, Germany, Spain, Italy and the US are carrying out military exercises in French streets. pic.twitter.com/RrjpHLpyyN
This shift has implicitly created tensions between France and Germany and resulted in a shift in power dynamics which has affected the overall political landscape of Europe.
Ambitions v realities
Whether Macron will be successful in achieving his aims remains to be seen, as he cannot ignore political realities. Upon taking over the presidency of the European Union in the first half of 2022, Macron has repeatedly criticised Europe's dependence on the United States for strategic security and energy.
However, no concrete action has been taken to establish an independent European military alliance. The outbreak of the Ukrainian war resulted in Europe aligning itself with the US, and it became clear that the creation of a European defence pole is unlikely.
A Ukrainian serviceman fires a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) from a launcher during a training exercise in the Donetsk region on April 7, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
So far, no concrete action has been taken to establish an independent European military alliance. The outbreak of the Ukrainian war resulted in Europe aligning itself with the US, and it became clear that the creation of a European defence pole is unlikely.
Europe must reduce its dependence on the United States, Macron said, returning from China.
Macron emphasized his theory of "strategic autonomy" for Europe, presumably led by France, to become a "third superpower". pic.twitter.com/P1PrYPEvHv
Germany's €100 billion investment over the next five years is directed toward cooperation with Nato rather than an independent European direction.
Moreover, Chancellor Olaf Scholz proposed a joint air defence system in Europe, in cooperation with the United States, Britain, Israel, the Netherlands, Poland, the Baltic states, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Scandinavian countries — but excluded France and Italy.
The FCAS military aircraft production project with France is also progressing slowly.
Significant gap remains
The gap between Macron's vision and the current reality is significant. While he believes that Europe should strive for strategic independence, recent events have shown that the creation of a European defence pole is unlikely, and Germany is determined to continue investing in Nato.
A Boeing CH-47F Chinook tandem rotor helicopter (Vertol) of the US Army's 101st Airborne Division transports a military vehicle during a Nato demonstration drill at Mihail Kogalniceanu Airbase near Constanta, Romania.
Furthermore, Scholz's proposal excludes France and Italy, which may further widen the gap between Germany and its European partners.
While Macron's aspirations for strategic independence are noble, the current balance of power suggests that Europe's path towards achieving this goal will be challenging.
Critics have expressed concern over Berlin's stances that not only have national implications but also broader repercussions for Europe.
This approach is surprising, given that the coalition agreement for 2021 called for more strategic independence for Europe and an independent European Union as a strong player in a world increasingly characterised by uncertainty and systemic competition.
Meanwhile, Macron's push — without coordination with Berlin — has also widened the gap between Germany and France, making it difficult for the European self-independence project to advance in the foreseeable future.
Diminishing weight
On his part, Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, has warned that "Europe is under threat of becoming irrelevant."
"30 years ago, Europe acquired a quarter of global prosperity, but in 20 years, it is projected to account for a maximum of 11% of global economic output," Borrell wrote in an article.
It is a normal reaction for the EU to push for more military, political, and economic independence in light of its diminishing global weight. It has become an existential issue and the war in Ukraine has only reaffirmed the need and speed for such moves.
An American soldier walks past a line of M1 Abrams tanks, Nov. 29, 2016, at Fort Carson in Colorado Springs, Colo. U.S. officials say the Pentagon is speeding up its delivery of Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
For the foreseeable future it is likely that the US will slowly distance itself from Europe and focus on China as Beijing becomes a more ambitious and global power. Also, dealing with Russia will become more complicated and difficult due to the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, middle powers will also pursue independence options.
Lack of convergence
These developments worry Europeans who are realising that, in order to maintain their relevance and influence in the world, they must take strategic action. Therefore, the conclusion can be drawn that the creation of a "third European pole" is necessary.
However, this possibility is unlikely to be implemented soon, despite French enthusiasm, due to the lack of convergence on several positions and objective circumstances.
In this context, Atlanticists oppose European strategic independence, believing it is necessary to maintain a close connection with the United States. Poland is at the forefront of this opposition and has warned EU leaders not to adopt "strategic independence policies" apart from the United States.
Instead, they suggest establishing a "strategic partnership connecting Warsaw and EU countries with the United States" as "the only force capable of ensuring Europe's security, especially Eastern Europe."
France appears isolated in the battle for "European strategic self-rule" due to the Atlanticist tendency among the elites, not necessarily among European public opinion.
The ideological battle has not been resolved, and the rise of the euro has always been obstructed by the dominance of the dollar. The path to achieving it will not be easier with the rise of the yuan.
The European push for strategic self-reliance appears to be futile. The European Union still has a long way to go to become not only an economic and trade pole but also a strategic and defence pole.
