Leaving Paris in flames, an embattled Macron heads to Beijing

Democratic malaise

Although President Emmanuel Macron is the target of the current protests, this democratic malaise in France cannot be attributed solely to Macron's presidency, as it dates back to at least the 1980s.

Important episodes, such as the resort to austerity in 1983, just two years after the left's arrival in the Elysée under Francois Mitterrand, the failure of Alain Juppe's proposed reforms in 1995, and the parliamentary ratification of the European Lisbon Treaty after its rejection in the 2005 constitutional referendum, all highlighted a lack of confidence in the democratic process.

The current president inherits a difficult legacy marked by the inability to pass reforms, complicated by the absence of an absolute majority for his team in a fragmented parliament with two hard-line wings standing against the " Système" — The New Ecological and Social People's Union led by radical leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon and the far-right National Rally led by Marine Le Pen.

The inability to engage in dialogue with unions and proposals for popular referendums on sensitive issues further increase the possibility of President Macron's second term (2022-2027) being derailed.

Context of movements  

In the context of political history and the development of institutions in France, popular and social movements have played a key role in crystallising and modernising the frameworks of political and social democracy, from the Popular Front in 1936 to the Student Revolution in May 1968, where trade unions have always had an impact, especially when they join forces with students and youth.

The acceleration of events and the continuation of the protests led to the postponement of King Charles III's visit to France (March 26-29), which constituted a setback for the French president, since Queen Elizabeth's successor chose France as his first destination abroad.

What is worse in the framework of the protests is France's negative image around the world, with foreign media discussing the chaos prevailing in the streets and "signs of a revolution in the making."

Therefore, the China visit could serve as a warranted distraction as unions are set to stage an 11th nationwide strike during Macron's time in Beijing. The irony is not lost that Macron is trying to play a leadership role in Europe, while being the subject of intense anger and scrutiny at home.

The wave of violence that distorted the peaceful movements prompted Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin to warn of the bad memories of fascism in the 30 years, blurred from the ultra-left channel and the Black Bloc group (estimated at about 2,000 people and composed mainly of activists from the far-left libertarian or independent movements).

Observers go even beyond that and remind of the course of the old French revolution or the excesses of the "yellow vests" recently.

Memories of the guillotine  

Recalling France's tumultuous past, including the time of the guillotine on the Place de la Concorde where King Louis XVI was executed, France finds itself on the brink of a steep slide.

This is evidenced by the repeated targeting of President Emmanuel Macron through the burning of effigies or images of him and calls for his "execution."

The focus on the president is due to public opinion's view of his personality and style, with many comparing him to Napoleon Bonaparte and accusing him of authoritarianism and unilateral rule.

The reduction of the presidential term from seven years to five years, to align it with the term of parliament, has made the occupant of the Elysée a direct target, as they now hold the head of the executive authority. Macron must therefore find a way to navigate this situation so that he can successfully complete his second term.

After the law was imposed "from above" in the National Assembly, and the massive immediate reaction that followed, the president's televised remarks on 22 March  were not successful in easing tensions.

Instead, his opponents accused him of exacerbating the situation by refusing to withdraw the controversial law and acting as if everything were fine — despite the repercussions of inflation and the suffering of a wide segment of the French population.

Ghost of chaos

Following the broad movements on 23 March, Macron appeared to be in a critical situation. The government seemed isolated and weak, parliament was in a state of confusion, and the entire country was in turmoil.

Both parties remained steadfast in their positions, except for the moderate trade union leader Laurent Bourget, who called for a six-month break and dialogue before completing the imminent reform.

Finding a way out of this social and democratic crisis is not simple. The debate is now centred on the legitimacy of the government. People are now questioning whether they should resort to elections, despite the high rates of abstention, or take to the streets, with the risk of deviating from the regularity of institutions.

Caving under pressure

On the eve of the tenth move, on Tuesday, 28 March, the Elysée's entourage began to talk about the government's flexibility, especially after Prime Minister Elizabeth Bourne pledged to not invoke Article 49-3 again to approve laws.

It is likely that Macron will accept the proposal of the President of the Democratic Union of Labour to temporarily freeze the proposed reforms of France's cherished pensions system in order to calm the streets and nip chaos in its infancy.

One of the hidden reasons behind this flexibility is to avoid the possibility of the Constitutional Council (headed by former Socialist Prime Minister Laurent Fabius) challenging the draft law for reasons related to form rather than content.

In parallel, Macron tasked his prime minister with expanding the majority, but this seems impossible due to the division of the traditional right-wing party, Rassemblement pour la République.

It is more likely that the French president will have to carry out a broad cabinet reshuffle or dismiss Prime Minister Elizabeth Bourne and seek the help of a figure from the right-wing Rassemblement pour la République or even the Green Party, in an effort to expand the base of his rule and avoid falling into the trap of a system crisis.

In the face of the spectre of chaos, signs of rebellion, the rise of the far left and far right, and the decline of traditional political forces, dialogue is inevitable for Emmanuel Macron in order to overcome this critical juncture.

There is no alternative to opening a new social and political chapter to avoid weakening democracy and the country.