Leaked Pentagon papers: A global embarrassment of epic proportions

Worst leak since Snowden

The 100 or so classified documents that Teixeira was able to expose using social media platforms such as Discord constitute the most significant intelligence leak the US has suffered since the US intelligence consultant Edward Snowden stole vast quantities of data stored by the National Security Agency in 2013.

On that occasion there were concerns that Snowden was working for either the Chinese or Russians — especially after he eventually sought refuge in Russia, where he was granted citizenship at the end of last year.

At present there is no suggestion that Teixeira was working for a foreign intelligence service but was simply using the classified documents to impress his acquaintances on the internet.

Even so, the disclosures have proved to be deeply concerning for Washington, not least because they have shed an embarrassing light on how the US continues to spy on countries that are supposed to be its allies, as well as revealing what the Americans really think about the prospects of Ukraine achieving victory in its year-long war against Russia.

Read more: Pentagon leaks show Western resolve in Ukraine war

Embarassing reveleations

One of the more embarrassing revelations for the Biden administration, which is supposed to value its long-standing relationship with Israel, is the claim that US intelligence officials believed that Israel's Mossad intelligence service had encouraged employees and Israeli citizens to take part in the nationwide anti-government protests that erupted last month over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed judicial reforms.

Egypt, too, is another country that will be unhappy about the leaks, with one of the classified documents claiming that Egyptian President  Abdel Fattah El-Sisi had secretly approved plans to provide Russia with 40,000 rockets for use in its war against Ukraine — a move that undermines Cairo's claim to be an ally of Washington, which is backing Ukraine in the conflict.

Other revelations include the claim that China had reached a deal with Russia to provide lethal weapons on the strict condition that the arms shipments remained secret, and the suggestion that America's spy agencies undertook surveillance operations against UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres because of concerns that his  "actions are undermining broader efforts to hold Moscow accountable for its actions in Ukraine."

Pessimism over Ukraine victory

Yet, from Washington's perspective, arguably the most embarrassing aspect of the leaks is that they reveal the very deep misgivings Washington policymakers have about Kyiv's ability to achieve victory against Russia, despite the fact that the US is the main military backer of Ukraine's war effort, recently approving $3.75 billion in new military assistance.

According to details of one report published in the Washington Post, US military officials expressed misgivings in early February about Ukraine's chances of success in its forthcoming counteroffensive, saying that problems with generating and sustaining sufficient forces could result in "modest territorial gains".

Ukraine's difficulties in maintaining its vital air defences were also analysed, with warnings from late February that Kyiv might run out of critical missiles.

The seriousness of these concerns have subsequently been confirmed after senior Ukrainian air force officers warned this week that shortages of air defence missiles and fighter jets could result in Ukraine losing control of its skies as early as next month, putting a planned spring offensive in jeopardy and leaving its cities at risk of Russian bombardment of the kind suffered in Syria.

Read more: One year on, Ukraine sets its sights on the south

"The situation is very dangerous indeed," warned Ukrainian air force Colonel Yuri Ihnat. "If we lose the battle for our skies the consequences will be critical. The Russians will smash every city just like they did in Syria. Our nuclear power stations will be vulnerable too. And we will struggle to protect our frontline troops."

Number of casualities leaked

The leaks also include recent casualties which appear to show the heavy price the Ukrainians have paid for defending their freedom.

While the estimate of 223,000 Russian killed or wounded is roughly in keeping with the most recent published estimates, the claim that there are as many 131,000 Ukrainian casualties will come as a surprise to many, and could cause embarrassment for Ukrainian officials who have tried to conceal the true casualty figures.

The claims have certainly provoked an angry response from Ukrainian officials who have dismissed the leaks, suggesting they might constitute a Russian disinformation campaign. 

There are also indications that Ukrainian officials have been frustrated at Washington's downbeat assessment of their war-fighting capabilities, with presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak tweeting: "We need less contemplation on 'leaks' and more long-range weapons in order to properly end the war."

Nor is it just the Ukrainians who find themselves embarrassed by the leaks. Russian security officials, too, will be unhappy at the suggestion that senior Russian intelligence officials have been at loggerheads over the reporting of casualties with suggestions that the FSB, the country's main intelligence agency, has accused the defence ministry of playing down the human impact of the war.

Questions continue to be raised about the veracity of some of these claims, with both US and British security officials suggesting they do not tell the whole story.

But the fact that such sensitive information has managed to find its way into the public domain thanks to the activities of a low-level American national guardsman nevertheless represents yet another major embarrassment for the American intelligence community.