Kyiv: When Russia threw a large number of forces at Ukraine last year in its massive 24 February invasion, locals were shocked and initially found the situation “unreal”, Al Majalla was told in interviews in and around the Ukrainian capital in late February.
One year later, Russians have been pushed out of large swathes of territory and are nowhere near the capital, though air alerts and warnings to “take shelter immediately” were issued twice to those on the ground in Kyiv on the morning of 23 February followed by orders to go immediately to the nearest shelter.
Such warnings, however, have become a normal part of many people’s daily lives here and few actually pay much heed to them.
Battles, meanwhile, rage in the eastern part of Ukraine.
Multiple observers claim even territory lost in earlier years to Russia may be regained by Ukrainian forces in the coming months, such as the much-coveted Crimean Peninsula on the northern coast of the Black Sea.
In early 2014, Russia took control of and annexed the peninsula.
Commenting on the current situation and noting gains in September and October in the northern part of Ukraine near the Belarus and Russia borders Ukrainian president Volodmyr Zelenkyy said earlier this month that, “I want our people to have predictability right now” to ensure that morale remains high, even as Russia has in recent days moved forward in some places in the eastern part of the country amid heavy fighting and massive losses.
41 year-old Halyna Voitiuk, holding an Ukrainian flag mourns with relatives and friends during the funeral of her husband Oleh Voitiuk, in Lviv cemetery.
Serhiy Hrabsky, a Ukrainian military expert and former colonel well known within Ukraine for his analytical assessments, told Al Majalla in an extensive interview on 21 February in Ukraine that Russia is employing a tactic “we call thousands of cuts”.
“They are trying to exhaust Ukrainian forces,” the colonel, who has experience in other conflict zones including Iraq, said.
“Russia has the potential to increase its presence in eastern and southern Ukraine, to mobilise and deploy additional contingents of troops,” he warned, noting that “Russia is not in any hurry” and “in the last two weeks we have seen an increase in Russia missile attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure” as well as against civilian infrastructure.
Russia has the potential to increase its presence in eastern and southern Ukraine, to mobilise and deploy additional contingents of troops. Russia is not in any hurry and in the last two weeks we have seen an increase in Russia missile attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure.
Serhiy Hrabsky, a Ukrainian military expert and former colonel
These attacks targeting civilian infrastructure are not, he emphasised, military objectives and should instead be considered "terrorist attacks."
Kyiv building with signs of damage from Russian attacks last year. Feb. 22, 2023.
Questionable tactics
On other tactics used by the Russian forces, Hrabsky noted that a week prior to the interview Russian forces had tried to conduct an offensive "to concentrate a big amount of armoured equipment — I'm talking about tanks, PTRs [Payload Transport Vehicles], armoured vehicles and so on. They launched the offensive using a limited number of roads."
"Ukrainian forces discovered the attempt and destroyed the Russian columns advancing on Ukrainian positions in Vuhledar," he told Al Majalla, adding that, "Russian forces were forced to change their tactics, using massive amounts of infantry."
"They tried to approach as close as possible and then conduct suprise attacks against defenders, trying to gain prevalence of forces — ten to one, or something like this. They did not and do not count — so far — their losses (suffered when) pushing back Ukrainian defenders.'
This is a tactic that is "questionable" in terms of its effectiveness over the long term, the military expert stressed.
"Yes, Russian forces are able to push back Ukrainian defenders from positions, but the price for that offensive is extremely high. Russians lose every day the equivalent of one battalion — sometimes maybe two battalions."
Yes, Russian forces are able to push back Ukrainian defenders from positions, but the price for that offensive is extremely high. Russians lose every day the equivalent of one battalion — sometimes maybe two battalions.
Serhiy Hrabsky, a Ukrainian military expert and former colonel
"Roughly, in total we're talking about 600 to 800 people per day, according to official Ukrainian sources. But, you know," Hrabsky cautioned, possibly these figures should be seen as "including not only killed in action but also the wounded in action and prisoners of war", or those effectively taken off the battlefield in one way or another.
High casualties on Bakhmut frontline
The head of the main intelligence directorate of the Ukrainian defence ministry, Kyrylo Budanov, was on 22 February reported by local media as saying that Russian forces are focusing on infantry in Bakhmut in the Donetsk oblast in eastern Ukraine after a decision to change tactics they had been employing in a nearby area.
A former US Marine fighting with the Ukraine's International Legion told the US media outlet ABC News on 20 February that the situation in Bakhmut was "chaotic" and that he was seeing "a lot of casualties. The life expectancy is around four hours on the frontline."
The Russian forces, Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov was quoted as saying, are now attacking using "wave after wave" of men and few armoured vehicles, after their vehicles were destroyed "within a few hours" of launching the offensive in Vuhledar.
Between the town of Bucha and Kyiv, Ukraine. Feb. 22, 2023.
Hrabsky noted in the interview with Al Majalla that Russian forces are, "unfortunately not able to change this tactic."
"They try to use old Soviet-style of operations and their commanders, their composition of troops, and their supply systems are not ready to change that operational manner of doing war."
In this sense, he said, "Ukrainian troops are in a better position," though they are also "under permanent pressure from Russia."
"Ukrainian intelligence services, Ukrainian positions, and the increase in use of multiple launch systems — using artillery mortars, tanks and other equipment — are more effective than Russian's ability to repel them," he said.
"Now Ukrainian forces are trying to influence Russian battle compositions in all depths", ranging from their "frontline positions to 80 kilometres" away.
He said that "we are aware of the location of [Russian] troops in warehouses and other logistics facilities", and "this means that Russians will continue to use the tactic of trying to push Ukrainians from their positions using a massive amount of infantry and less involvement of armoured vehicles and aviation."
Limited aviation capabilities
On the subject of aviation, "we received information from different sources that the Russian concentrated a huge amount of air forces in the airfields close to Ukrainian frontlines [which would mean] that Russians would be able to conduct massive air attacks against Ukrainian forces."
However, this is not "correct", since Russians have never used "large amounts of aviation before. They do not have a tradition of doing so or a protocol," that would involve such a tactic.
He estimated that 80% of the "impact" made by Russian forces against Ukrainian territory had been made by "artillery, multiple-launch systems and mortars and maybe tanks" and "only 5% by small arms fire, while up to 10% in part from air strikes"
Thus, he said, "the impact of aviation in these battles is limited because of increasing Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense".
On 20 February, the local website Kyiv Independent quoted the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces as saying that, "Russian troops carried out 22 air strikes and three missile attacks against Ukraine over the past 24 hours."
"Russia also reportedly launched more than 30 attacks using multiple launch rocket systems.", which "targeted multiple settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts", or administrative districts.
Kyiv street. Feb. 22, 2023.
As for the future, Hrabsky told Al Majalla, "it depends on many things. But based on the information we have now, the drawn battles may continue in the eastern part of the frontline where Russians will continue to try to advance."
"They will desperately try to capture Bakhmut and who knows, maybe Ukrainian forces will withdraw from Bakhmut soon. We will see," he said, seemingly implying that in any case the area is not as much of a priority for Ukrainian forces as some others or not worth potential losses Ukraine might suffer.
Melitopol offensive
"In general," he continued, "the situation on the frontline seems quite stable despite the desperate clashes in the east and it is the hope at the moment and the forecast that the main battles will begin in the south – I am talking about the Zaporizhzhia front, where Ukrainian forces have a clear aim of the military offensive. That aim has a name: Melitopol."
"Melitopol is an extremely important transportation junction," he said, noting that all supply lines from and to Crimea "run through Melitopol".
Hrabsky, who said he had spent "a large part" of his life in Crimea, said that "if Ukrainian forces are able to liberate Melitopol and advance up to the sea coast of Azov, it will mean that the peninsula of Crimea will turn into the 'island' of Crimea. It will be separated from the mainland of the Russian Federation."
If Ukrainian forces are able to liberate Melitopol and advance up to the seacoast of Azov, it will mean that the peninsula of Crimea will turn into the 'island' of Crimea. It will be separated from the mainland of the Russian Federation.
Serhiy Hrabsky, a Ukrainian military expert and former colonel
This would mean that "it would only be a matter of time before liberating Crimea. We're talking about three or four months. [Russian] troop composition is not enough to conduct any serious opposition to Ukrainian offensive action."
"It is not only a matter of liberating Ukrainian lands," he said.
The loss of Crimea would have a "huge political impact on Mr. [Russian president Vladimir] Putin's reputation and his political regime."
Just imagine, he said, "how the situation in Russia might change if Ukrainian forces enter Crimea."
"Lines of communication in the south," he stressed, between the Russian mainland and Crimea "are within the firing lines of Ukrainian forces" at all times.
Were Ukraine to take Crimea, he surmised, other areas currently under Russian control in the eastern part of the country but further north might follow.
