Will Trump’s prosecution boost his re-election chances?

The former president has already gone up four poll points since his indictment

Will Trump’s prosecution boost his re-election chances?

The decision by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to charge former US President Donald Trump with falsifying business records may make for good political drama, but it is hardly likely to heal the deep political divisions that are tearing the country apart.

At a time when America is still trying to come to terms with the violent attack on the Capitol Building in Washington, the heart of American democracy, following Trump’s defeat in the 2020 presidential election, the sight of a former American president being hauled before a Manhattan judge will only serve to further exacerbate tensions.

Read more: Political gaps widen in the ‘Divided’ States of America

Trump’s appearance in a New York courthouse gives him the unwelcome distinction of becoming the first sitting or former president to face a criminal indictment on charges relating to allegations that he made hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels to stop her revealing details of an alleged affair.

The charges, which relate to falsifying business records, are classed as a Class E felony in the US, carrying a potential jail term of up to four years. It is rare, however, for a first-time offender to receive a jail sentence if found guilty, with Trump more likely to receive a fine if convicted.

Politically motivated?

Yet, despite the charges relating solely to Trump’s business activities, the former president insists the charges made against him are politically motivated and are designed to torpedo his chances of being re-elected president in next year’s presidential election contest.

Just as he did prior to the Capitol riots in January 2021, Trump has already called on his supporters to “protest, protest, protest” at the charges being levelled against him.

And while there is unlikely to be a repeat of the dreadful scenes at the Capitol Building that tarnished America’s reputation for being a beacon of democracy, the decision to prosecute the former president will undoubtedly lead to further polarisation in American politics.

Despite the ignominy of facing a criminal prosecution, Trump does not appear to have been in any way cowed by the experience.

On the contrary, he has succeeded in turning a process most other mortals would find intensely embarrassing into the equivalent of a campaign rally, with television crews from all the major American news networks following his every move as he flew from Florida to New York to defend himself against the charges.

Trump has succeeded in turning a process most other mortals would find intensely embarrassing into the equivalent of a campaign rally, with television crews from all the major American news networks following his every move as he flew from Florida to New York to defend himself against the charges.

Indeed, from the outset Trump's response to the charges has been to position himself as the victim of a politically-orchestrated campaign to destroy his political reputation.

Prior to flying to New York, his aides declared that Trump was ready to fight against the "injustice, persecution and weaponisation" of the justice system by his Democratic rivals.

Trump's claim that he is being unfairly persecuted is gaining traction among Republicans of all stripes, to the extent that the former president has actually seen his poll ratings increase since the charges were announced.

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, 48 per cent of Republicans now say they want Trump to be their party's nominee. That is up from 44 in a similar poll taken shortly before he was indicted. By contrast, only 19 per cent are backing his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, down from 30 per cent in the previous poll. No other candidate scored in double digits.

Right-wing activists, meanwhile, turned their ire on the Manhattan district attorney responsible for pressing the charges, with Mr Bragg's office being inundated with claims of election interference. 

As the backlash against his indictment grows, even many opponents of Trump argue that charging him may have been a step too far for America.

"I do think that this is a watershed moment," said Bill Barr, Trump's former Attorney General who split with him in 2021. "And I don't think it's going to end up good for the country."

The prospect of Trump being involved in a controversial court case at the same time that he is contesting an American presidential election could also spell trouble for US President Joe Biden, who could find himself being overshadowed by the media frenzy the criminal prosecution of a former president is likely to generate.

The prospect of Trump being involved in a controversial court case at the same time that he is contesting an American presidential election could also spell trouble for US President Joe Biden, who could find himself being overshadowed by the media frenzy the criminal prosecution of a former president is likely to generate.

More serious charges?

So far there has been a deafening silence from Democrat leaders who have accused Trump of wrongdoing on a number of fronts, to the extent that there is a very real prospect that he could face charges as a result of other investigations, including one into his role in provoking the assault on the Capitol Building.

But the more Trump finds himself under investigation, the more the American media's obsession with covering Trump's every move deepens, to the extent that on Monday, when Trump was flying to New York in his private jet, the news coverage was focused almost entirely on his movements, to the extent that Biden, who was on a visit to Minnesota to speak about infrastructure and job creation, barely got a mention.

If the prospect of Trump facing prosecution is helping to boost his re-election prospects, the former president still needs to overcome a number of significant hurdles if he is to avoid being convicted.

By far the biggest challenge Trump faces in his battle to clear his name is the testimony likely to be provided by Michael Cohen, once a former close aide of Trump's who is now set to be the star witness in the historic criminal prosecution of the former president.

Having served jail time for fraud and violating campaign finance laws when he worked for Trump, Cohen is now on a revenge mission to make the former president face prosecution. If he succeeds, then Trump's attempts to prove his innocence will end in failure, with all the implications that will have for his attempts to return to the White House.  

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