UK politicians hope that Yousaf’s election will strengthen the union and decrease the chances of Scottish independence
AFP
Leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), Humza Yousaf, and Scotland's First Minsiter, poses for a photograph after being hi swearing-in ceremony.
Humza Yousaf’s election as leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and his subsequent appointment as the sixth Scottish First Minister points to a new era in British politics.
He is the first Muslim to lead a major British political party, his father originally emigrating to Scotland from Pakistan, while his mother came from Kenya’s South Asian community. With Britain’s Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, of Indian heritage, the UK’s leading political offices are finally representing the country’s diverse multi-cultural reality.
Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care, Humza Yousaf (C) poses for a photograph with his mother, Shaaista and father, Muzaffar at a campaign event in Glasgow, Scotland on February 24, 2023.
Yet while this positive development should not be trivialised, it will not likely offset the various challenges Yousaf faces in Scotland. In turn, Edinburgh’s difficulties will be seen as opportunities by London.
Indeed, as Yousaf begins his term on less sure ground than his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon, both the UK government and the opposition Labour party will relish the chance to gain ground on Scotland’s nationalists. They will hope that Yousaf’s election ultimately makes the union stronger and decreases the chances of Scottish independence.
Leadership challenges
Yousaf narrowly won the SNP leadership election, 52%-48% after second preference votes were counted, and his first challenge will be keeping his party united. Nicola Sturgeon was a formidable force and managed to keep the broad coalition of her party together through a strong personality, but few expect Yousaf to be able to replicate this.
He is seen as the continuity candidate, endorsed by the SNP establishment and, reportedly, privately by Sturgeon herself. Yet, while this may impress Sturgeon loyalists, it might also deter ordinary voters who think the party needs shaking up after 16 years in power.
Yousaf is seen as the continuity candidate, endorsed by the SNP establishment and, reportedly, privately by Sturgeon herself. Yet, while this may impress Sturgeon loyalists, it might also deter ordinary voters who think the party needs shaking up after 16 years in power.
Yousaf's ability as a leader was repeatedly questioned during the leadership campaign, and he was frequently characterised as someone who, 'failed upwards': being promoted despite performing poorly in ministerial roles.
He has been a Scottish minister since 2012, becoming transport secretary in 2016, Justice minister in 2018 and Health minister in 2021. However, he was criticised for underperforming in all three of these senior roles.
As his leadership rival, Kate Forbes, charged in a TV debate, "You were transport minister and the trains were never on time, when you were justice secretary the police were stretched to breaking point, and now as health minister we've got record high waiting times."
Such a record doesn't suggest someone who will be able to easily hold the party together and retain voters, let alone attract new ones.
SNP divisions
This prospect was made even worse by the leadership contest, which tarnished the SNP's brand. The exchanges between Yousaf and Forbes in particular, who eventually finished second, exposed the deep divisions within the SNP.
Forbes was seen as representing the more conservative, rural wing of the party, questioning some of Sturgeon and Yousaf's green and socially liberal policies, while Yousaf challenged Forbes' position on gay marriage.
Party divisions were made even worse by the leadership contest, which tarnished the SNP's brand. The exchanges between Yousaf and Forbes in particular, who eventually finished second, exposed the deep divisions within the SNP.
It was notable that Forbes turned down the chance to serve in Yousaf's cabinet after her defeat, ostensibly to spend more time with her family.
Scotland's First Minister, and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), Nicola Sturgeon, accompanied by SNP MSP Kate Forbes (L) and Justice Secretary Humza Yousaf (R) in 2020.
However, she was offered a significant demotion from her former role as finance minister, which her allies saw as an insult, suggesting Yousaf failed to offer a serious olive branch to the conservative wing.
Domestic headaches
As well as keeping his party together, Yousaf faces numerous domestic headaches. Scotland's budget is stretched, with the independent Scottish Fiscal Commission reporting a £1.5bn deficit between public service demand and the funds to pay for them, meaning unpopular cuts are likely.
Health is the most expensive service, and Scotland's National Health Service (NHS) is currently facing record waiting lists for emergency care, cancer, and surgeries – which Yousaf failed to resolve as Health minister.
Meanwhile Yousaf must decide whether to retain Sturgeon's unpopular policies like the bottle return scheme, limiting further North Sea oil operations, or challenging London's right to veto controversial gender recognition reforms.
Moving away from these might win support from the SNP's conservatives or undecided voters but would risk the coalition agreement with Scotland's Green party that allows the SNP to govern in Edinburgh's parliament, Holyrood.
New Scottish Independence poll, Survation 10 - 12 Jan (changes vs 24 - 28 Mar; no Yes-No Q in Dec - Jan Survation):
Yousaf may have to make unpopular cuts and policy decisions at a time when his party is less united behind him than his predecessor and with serious questions about his leadership ability.
This all at a time when polls suggest support in Scotland for independence is down, as is satisfaction with the SNP's rule. The UK Labour party, which dominated Scottish politics before the rise of the SNP in the 2000s, looks set to reclaim several of its lost seats in the next elections.
Rishi Sunak, Britain's Prime Minister, is probably delighted at recent events in Scotland. Under Sturgeon's skilled leadership the SNP have been a powerful force, increasing the chances of Scottish independence and the collapse of the United Kingdom as we know it.
A rocky marriage
Scotland and England's marriage has long been a rocky one. While the two shared the same monarch from 1603 when England's childless Queen, Elizabeth I, was succeeded by her cousin James Stuart of Scotland, they did not unite into a single 'United Kingdom' until 1707.
This union was resented by many Scots who saw their parliament absorbed into London's. This resentment heightened after 1714 when London's parliament decreed that the last Stuart monarch, Anne, who died without an heir, would be succeeded be her nearest Protestant relative, a distant German second cousin, George I, rather than the surviving Stuarts, who were Catholic.
This led to two Scottish rebellions, the last of which ended in defeat for the rebels at Cullodon in 1745, prompting London to order the 'clearing' of the Highlands — hotbeds of support for the Stuart pretenders — generating long term resentment from some Scots.
Though the industrial revolution and the pursuit of overseas empire gave the English and Scots something of a united purpose for the next centuries, the collapse of empire, deindustrialisation and economic decline revived Scottish nationalism in the 1970s.
The Labour government of Tony Blair hoped that giving Edinburgh devolved power might sate the urge for full independence, creating a devolved Scottish government in 1999, led by a First minister.
However, this boosted the SNP and its calls for full independence, especially after it became the dominant party in Holyrood from 2007 and won most of Scotland's seats in London's parliament after 2015.
Dominance in Holyrood forced London to agree to the SNP's demand for a referendum on Scottish independence, which the SNP narrowly lost in 2014, 45%-55%.
Independence debate revived
While this might have put the question to bed, at least for a while, another referendum, this time over Brexit, reopened the independence debate. While a narrow majority of UK voters chose to leave the European Union, a clear majority of Scottish voters voted to remain, 62%-38%. Sturgeon insisted that Scots were being forced to leave the EU against their will and demanded another referendum on independence.
Brexit reopened the independence debate. While a narrow majority of UK voters chose to leave the European Union, a clear majority of Scottish voters voted to remain, 62%-38%. Sturgeon insisted that Scots were being forced to leave the EU against their will and demanded another referendum on independence.
In 2017 she wrote to Downing Street demanding a section 30 order, which would allow a second Scottish independence referendum to go ahead if granted, but London refused.
The same occurred in 2019 and, indeed, Yousaf's first act as first minister in 2023 was to do likewise, though this was mostly symbolic as few expect Sunak to comply.
Leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), Humza Yousaf (L), is sworn in as Scotland's First Minister at the Court of Session in Edinburgh on March 29, 2023.
The ruling Conservative party, which was in power during the 2014 referendum, insist that the plebiscite settled the question "for a generation" and there is no need to revisit it, denying that Brexit has altered the political landscape.
However, Sturgeon's polished performances and shrewd politicking made her a tough opponent for successive Conservative politicians and, while the SNP remained the dominant force in Edinburgh, the pressure to accede to another referendum loomed large.
Sturgeon's departure, Yousaf's election and the possibility of a decline in SNP popularity is, therefore, broadly welcomed in Downing Street.
Advantage Labour?
However, while most Conservatives wish to preserve the union and, therefore, welcome any dip in support for the SNP, they are also aware that the main beneficiary will be their domestic rivals, the Labour Party.
Labour is way ahead in the UK-wide polls and Sunak's Conservatives look set for defeat in the next Westminster election, which must be held by January 2025 at the latest.
However, the UK's electoral system makes it harder for Labour to win than the Conservatives because of the concentration of votes in particular areas, meaning Sunak only needs to improve his party's popularity by a few percentage points to make the contest more competitive. In such a situation, every parliamentary seat will matter, and the 57 in Scotland could prove decisive.
In Tony Blair's 1997 landslide victory, he picked up 56 of Scotland's then 72 seats, helping him on his way to his 179-seat majority. In contrast, in the last election, 2019, Labour won only 1 out of 59 seats, losing 6, while the SNP took 48.
While no one expects Keir Starmer's Labour party to revive Blair-levels of support in Scotland, the latest polls suggest he will take 10 from the SNP if an election was held today. Labour know that number could grow if Yousaf struggles to win over voters disenchanted with his post-Sturgeon party.
Consequently, Starmer has been visiting Scotland regularly to woo potential supporters. Sunak too has been seen north of the border in recent weeks, aware that his Conservatives could also benefit from any SNP decline, though the polls suggest not as much as Labour.
A further setback for the Conservatives will be the loss of the fear factor that Sturgeon brought to English politics.
Conservative electoral strategists repeatedly claimed in 2015, 2017 and 2019 that a vote for Labour (in England) would open the door to a Labour-SNP Westminster coalition that would pave the way for Scottish independence, each time characterising Nicola Sturgeon as the mastermind behind Labour's dim-witted leaders.
A further setback for the Conservatives will be the loss of the fear factor that Sturgeon brought to English politics. Conservative electoral strategists repeatedly claimed that a vote for Labour (in England) would open the door to a Labour-SNP Westminster coalition that would pave the way for Scottish independence.
Her replacement with the less well known and, consequently, less fearsome Yousaf blunts this attack, as will any decline in support for Scottish independence in general.
Endangered Union
It is far from inevitable that Yousaf's election will catalyse a hemorrhaging of support for the SNP or an immediate decline in its dominance of Scottish politics. The new First Minister might confound expectations and emerge as an even more popular and successful leader than Sturgeon.
Scotland's First Minister and Scottish National Party (SNP) leader, Humza Yousaf, plays football with children.
The signs, for now, however, are that this will take time if it happens at all, and, meanwhile, both the Conservatives and, especially, the Labour party, see the electoral advantages to be had.
However, these are short term party-centric benefits, and will do little to address the long-term trends that swelled support for the SNP in the first place. The union between England and Scotland (not to mention a very different set of challenges for Wales, Northern Ireland and different regions within England) remains brittle.
Historic and more recent grievances have rarely been satisfactorily dealt with and the lure of independence for many Scots will remain strong. Both the Conservatives and the Labour party claim to support the continued union but have done too little when in power to facilitate its continuation.
If they really believing in making the union work, whoever wins the next elections needs to put serious effort in beyond their pursuit of short-term political goals.
