Over the past year, China has been gradually unrolling a new phase of its foreign policy as it shifts from being an observer to becoming an assertive player.
This can be seen in the country’s reaction to the Ukraine crisis but also in the Middle East where China chose to focus its re-drawn policy in light of the wider geopolitical implications of the conflict in Europe.
First came President Xi Jinping’s announcement last year of a Chinese “vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security”, made at the Bo’ao Forum for Asia of the Global Strategic Initiative. Then came the president’s signal of a more assertive foreign policy last October at the Communist Party Congress.
A more detailed articulation followed at the Munich Security Conference last February, when State Councillor Wang Yi took a defiant attitude towards the West in general and the United States in particular.
He signalled that China was losing patience with the Ukraine crisis. He declared that Beijing would put forward ideas for a settlement but also did not refute the American claim that Beijing would be providing lethal weapons to Russia.
Two birds, one stone
In a single stroke, Beijing was indicating to the West that it will not accept a Russian defeat and, at the same time, notifying Moscow that it will not accept an open-ended conflict in Ukraine.
A few days later, China issued both a concept paper on its “Global Security Initiative” and a position paper on the Ukraine crisis. The latter contained nothing new and was mostly a reiteration of positions held by Beijing since the beginning of the crisis. Some argued it could be more about Taiwan than Ukraine.
Nonetheless, it was also a signal to the world that China, when it finds itself ready, is prepared to mediate the conflict. Given that the crisis has severely impacted developing countries, China may well prefer to lead a group of developing countries or the Bric nations — Brazil, Russia, India and China —to put forward an initiative for settlement.
But that will need extensive preparation and time. There is plenty of that available, as it is highly unlikely that either Ukraine, backed by the US, or Russia is prepared for a settlement at this stage of the conflict.
Another round of major hostilities may be required before both sides are convinced that the continuation of the war is detrimental to their interests.
Any settlement might not be a full political accord, bringing the war to a formal end. The most likely outcome could very much mirror the Korean situation, of an end to hostilities along lines of control without a formal peace agreement, leaving issues of territory for future discussions.
China steps up Middle East involvement
In the Middle East, Beijing has largely remained aloof over the region’s politics. Instead, it has concentrated on building economic relations with all the players: the Arab countries, Turkey, Iran and Israel.
But as the region’s continued instability could have a negative impact on China’s strategic project, the Belt and Road Initiative, it looks less content to leave the management of security there to the United States and Russia.
China’s choice of which Middle Eastern conflict to mediate was careful and strategic. It picked the relationship that could alter the political landscape of the region: the one between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
