ISIS has not yet announced a new successor to its leader Abdullah Qardash, who was killed this week in a complex airdrop in a town located in an area overlapping the Syrian provinces of Aleppo and Idlib.
However, speculation about the impact of his absence on the extremist organization, which formed the alleged caliphate in Syria and Iraq years ago and included large geographic areas from both neighboring countries, seems to be the current subject of controversy among specialists in the affairs of extremist groups.
Attitudes about the possible effects of Qardash’s killing on ISIS varied as there are those who believe that this matter will lead to the organization’s weakness as happened with the killing of its former leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was killed in late October 2019 in an area close to that of the terrorist organization.
Qardash was killed a few days ago, but other locals ruled out that the impact of the killing of the leader of the extremist organization classified as a "terrorist" group by a number of countries, including Saudi Arabia, would be significant, given that ISIS is now acting through its sleeper cells in Syria and Iraq.
The real name of Qardash, who died during an air strike when he blew himself up in a refusal to be captured alive, is Muhammad Saeed Abdul Rahman Al-Mawla, but he was known as Abdullah Qardash and he was also nicknamed Abu Omar Al-Turkmani.
The nickname “Qardash,” with which he had widespread fame, is a Turkish name and means Al-Siddiq, who is of Turkmen origin. He was born in 1976 in the Tal Afar district of the Iraqi Nineveh Governorate.
After the killing of Qardash, a US diplomat said that targeting him is a "routine action for the United States, which pursues the most prominent leaders of terrorist organizations," especially in Syria, which has been witnessing an armed conflict for more than a decade and allowed extremist groups to enter the history of the ongoing crisis that followed popular protests erupting in March 2011.
David Schenker, the former US Assistant Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs, described the killing of the ISIS leader as a "preemptive strike," considering that his assassination would affect the effectiveness of the organization he was leading, especially since targeting him in an air raid would prevent senior ISIS leaders from communicating with their supporters.
He also indicated that Washington will continue to pursue senior leaders of terrorist organizations, but he ruled out launching air raids or targeting leaders of other extremist organizations such as the Houthi militias in Yemen.
He stressed that these militias are betting on the continuation of the armed conflict, not peaceful negotiation, and that U.S. President Joe Biden made a mistake when removing them from the terrorism list.
Here is the full text of the interview that Majalla conducted by phone with Schenker, who is currently the director of the Arab Politics Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy:
What is the goal in killing the leader of ISIS?
The US routinely targets senior leaders of terrorist organizations. The Islamic State has in the past used Syria as a base for operational planning for external operations, including terrorist attacks in Europe. It’s important to be proactive.
How will it affect activities?
ISIS is a bureaucratic organization, and changes in leadership can be disruptive. Targeting the leaders of these groups makes the leaders devote more effort to operational security, and can hinder senior leaders of the organization from communicating, which can diminish the effectiveness of the organization.
The organization continued after Baghdadi. Will it continue after Qardash?
Charles de Gaulle is believed to have once said, “The graveyards of the world are full of indispensable men.” In the war on terrorism, there is no knockout blow. It’s important to be persistent, even relentless, to prevent the resurgence of the organization. Baghdadi was an important leader at a time when ISIS controlled large swaths of territory. He was replaced, and I anticipate Qardash will also soon be replaced. All leaders are not equally capable.
Will there be infighting over the next leader?
I would imagine that ISIS has contingency plans for the death of their leaders. This is something that is becoming increasingly commonplace.
Do you think that Washington will continue its support for the Syrian Democratic Forces? And how long can this support continue?
I believe the Biden administration will continue to partner with the SDF. The Force is imperfect—it has problematic ties to the PYD and the PKK—but it is effective on the ground. The US deployment in Syria has also been high impact and American casualties have been limited. While the Biden administration may have wanted to withdraw from Syria, in the aftermath of the poorly executed withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the increased challenges with Russia, I don’t see this happening anytime soon.
Do you think that the Houthis should be included in the terrorist list, as is the case with ISIS?
I believe the Biden administration was wrong to delist the Houthis as a terrorist organization, something we did when I served in the last administration. The group meets the US criteria for being designated as an FTO. There are concerns in the Biden administration that a designation would compel humanitarian organizations to stop work there, and that banks would stop providing credit and services to food importers there, causing a famine. I believe these risks can be mitigated.
Is it possible to form an international coalition against the Houthis in Yemen, or to target its leaders in air operations, as Washington did with Qardash?
There is an international coalition fighting the Houthis in Yemen led by Saudi Arabia. The Biden administration doesn’t have the authority to do so under US law. In any event, even if Houthi leaders were targeted, it wouldn’t end the war. It would be helpful if UN member states started to enforce the arms embargo on Yemen, curtailing the delivery of Iranian missiles and rockets to their Houthi allies. Even if this happened, however, the Houthis have demonstrated their commitment to a military rather than a negotiated end to this war, regrettably.
