Frantic diplomatic negotiations continue as NATO leaders search for non-military solutions to the continued tensions between Russia and Ukraine. On February 8th the French President Emmanuel Macron visited Moscow and held a 5-hour long meeting with President Putin. Macron walked away from the meeting believing that he had stuck a deal with President Putin – an agreement not to keep escalating tensions with Ukraine. While Moscow has since refuted Macron’s optimistic view of the situation, one major achievement has been made – the Minsk accords are back on the table. The “Normandy Format” of the ceasefire talks over the conflict in Donbas brings France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine to the negotiating table. The Minsk 1 and 2 agreements, although unpopular in Ukraine, are seen as the optimal peaceful way out of the current separatist conflict in Ukraine’s breakaway region of Donbas. The separatist region has been backed by Russia militarily for nearly eight years now. The Minsk Accords have been on hold for over two years now and have so far proven ineffective in ending the war.
After his meeting with President Macron, Mr. Putin said: "As for the Minsk agreements, are they alive and do they have any prospect or not? … I believe that there is simply no other alternative. I repeat once again, in Kyiv, they either say that they will comply, or they say that this will destroy their country. The incumbent president recently stated that he does not like a single point of these Minsk agreements. 'Like it or don't like it, it's your duty, my beauty.' They must be fulfilled. It won't work otherwise."
Mr. Putin’s use of such crude language may seem discouraging, but just in the summer of 2021 he was refusing to negotiate with Mr. Zelensky, urging him to deal directly with the leaders of the breakaway Donbas region. Mere months ago the Minsk Accords seemed impossible to revive. Now there is a chance for renewed talks. However, the Minsk agreement is problematic when it comes to an interpretation of what the agreement actually entails. Moscow believes that the Minsk agreements should oblige the government in Kiev to grant autonomy to the de facto government in Donbas. The latter should be allowed to participate in the decision-making process of the Ukrainian government, and most importantly – maintain a veto power over major policy decisions, including those regarding Ukraine’s foreign policy posturing. Moscow assumes that it can maintain control over the political leaders in Donbas, and thus indirectly veto any decisions Ukraine may want to make about joining NATO or forming any major military alliances with Western powers.
The Ukrainian government sees the Minsk Accords as a way to grant some kind of a special status to the Donbas region, and perhaps a semi-autonomy, but certainly no veto power over Ukraine’s foreign policy decisions. Even in that limited scope, the Minsk Accords are highly unpopular in Ukraine. There is also a major disagreement about who the actual signatories are and who will serve as the guarantors of the ceasefire agreement. Moscow sees itself as a “peacemaker,” a mediator, just like France or Germany. Kiev demands that Moscow act as the signatory to the ceasefire agreement and take responsibility for ending the conflict in Donbas. Therefore, although the return of discussions about reviving the Minsk Accords holds some promise, the actual negotiations are unlikely to yield optimal results as the parties cannot even agree on the basic premise of the conflict.
DEEPENING RUSSIAN ALLIANCES
Meanwhile, Moscow has been deepening its alliances. President Lukashenko, previously reluctant to endorse Moscow’s aggression towards Ukraine and its aspirations to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus, has now become an avid supporter of President Putin’s aggressive rhetoric about Ukraine. Lukashenko was recently quoted as saying that Ukraine was building up its military presence on its border with Belarus: “If our country faces an aggression, there will be hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers here, who will defend this sacred land together with hundreds of thousands of Belarusians.”
Since Lukashenko’s near-overthrow in 2020, amid pro-democracy protests, the authoritarian leader has blamed the West for orchestrating the uprisings in Belarus and has cozied up to Russia entertaining deeper military cooperation than he was previously comfortable with. The military cooperation between the two sides has deepened so much, that Lukashenko has even proposed to host Russian military weapons. Last week Russian Prime Minister Mishustin announced that Belarussian troops will serve alongside the Russian armed forces in Syria in a “humanitarian capacity.” Russia has been involved in Syria since 2015, backing the Assad regime on the opposite side of the United States – the latter has withdrawn from Syria almost entirely, while Russia maintains its military presence there. Belarus will now deploy up to 200 troops to Syria. The move is mostly symbolic, but it is a decision on President Lukashenko’s part that once again puts the current regime in Belarus at odds with Western interests.
China’s President Xi, another important Moscow ally, has finally revealed where he stands on the potential Russia-West confrontation over Ukraine. On February 4th Russia and China issued a joint statement which included a long-winded meditation about the meaning of democracy, and ultimately called for an end to the West’s global democracy promotion agenda.
“The sides believe that the advocacy of democracy and human rights must not be used to put pressure on other countries. They oppose the abuse of democratic values and interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states under the pretext of protecting democracy and human rights, and any attempts to incite divisions and confrontation in the world. The sides call on the international community to respect cultural and civilizational diversity and the rights of peoples of different countries to self-determination. They stand ready to work together with all the interested partners to promote genuine democracy.”
In the statement Russia sided with China’s Taiwan policy: “The Russian side reaffirms its support for the One-China principle, confirms that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and opposes any forms of independence of Taiwan.” In return, China joined Russia in opposing further NATO enlargement:
“The sides believe that certain States, military and political alliances and coalitions seek to obtain, directly or indirectly, unilateral military advantages to the detriment of the security of others, including by employing unfair competition practices, intensify geopolitical rivalry, fuel antagonism and confrontation, and seriously undermine the international security order and global strategic stability. The sides oppose further enlargement of NATO and call on the North Atlantic Alliance to abandon its ideologized cold war approaches, to respect the sovereignty, security and interests of other countries, the diversity of their civilizational, cultural and historical backgrounds, and to exercise a fair and objective attitude towards the peaceful development of other States.”
The United States has been firming up plans to get Americans out of Ukraine. President Biden has called on all non-government employee US citizens to leave in order to avoid getting caught in a crossfire. But parallel to this the United States has been increasing its military presence in Europe, sending 2,000 additional troops from the US to Poland. Moreover, about 1,000 US soldiers are being repositioned from Germany to Romania, according to the latest reports. Most US experts believe Russia will invade Ukraine very soon. U.S. intelligence officials have regularly warned about various Russian plots to provoke Ukraine into an armed conflict. Yet the overall environment in Ukraine itself remains eerily calm. President Zelensky has asked Ukraine’s Western partners to help Ukraine defend itself, but he regularly repeats that he believes a diplomatic solution is possible. Lately Zelensky has been using the tactic of talking down the threat from Russia – in order to avoid the spread of panic and fear in Ukraine. The next big headline coming out of Ukraine could be one of two things: renewed Normandy Format talks about the Minsk Accords, or a major Russian invasion.
Maia Otarashvili is a Research Fellow and Deputy Director of the Eurasia Program. Maia also serves as the Deputy Director of Research at FPRI. Her research interests include geopolitics and security of the Black Sea-Caucasus region, Russian foreign policy, and the post-Soviet “frozen” conflicts.
