Dozens of people chanted slogans during rallies across Iran to protest the regime’s involvement in regional disputes that have only wasted the country’s resources.
“Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, we sacrifice our souls for Iran,” one slogan said, as people stormed the streets to express rage and resentment.
Iranians blame the regime’s sectarian and expansionist policies for the severe economic and financial sanctions imposed on the country, as well as the resulting stagnation in commercial life and the sharp deterioration in the social and living conditions of most of the people.
The regime and its various institutions and apparatuses have recognized that this deterioration led to the outbreak of massive popular protests in 2019, which are still ongoing, yet with less intensity.
They officially acknowledged that the financial support measures taken when President Hassan Rouhani was in office and are still implemented by President Ebrahim Raisi’s government are not enough to reduce the growing popular resentment.
In this regard, a study published by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed that the sanctions imposed against Tehran had a huge impact on citizens. They led to the outbreak of many popular protests.
According to the think tank, between 2018 and late 2019, there were over 4,200 protests in Iran against the government, most of which were demanding social services and improved living conditions. These demonstrations were driven by the government’s inability to pay salaries for employees in many sectors, the closure many industrial enterprises, and the decline in the value of the Iranian rial, in line with the surge in the rate of inflation.
Despite Joe Biden administration’s flexible approach in terms of Iran’s nuclear deal and its focus on finding a diplomatic solution, it hasn’t given up ex-President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy, which is aimed at fueling internal difference in Iran to weaken the theocratic regime. This way, the regime would agree to conclude a deal that would require it to be more transparent about its nuclear program, limit its ballistic capabilities and then destabilize its pillars in case the administration fails to destroy it.
The regime is certainly aware of this plan. However, it has failed to address the causes of the economic deterioration and lift the multiple international sanctions imposed on the country, albeit partially and selectively, by being somehow flexible in the ongoing nuclear deal talks in Vienna and reassure its neighboring countries.
Instead, it insists on its intransigence in the negotiations and is keen to pursue a foreign policy with an ultimate goal to prove its power and expand influence.
Since Tehran cannot officially declare its goal due to its provocative and hostile nature for most of the neighboring countries, the Iranian diplomacy and its affiliated media have ensured it is carried out under religious pretexts.
Iran is keen to publically support the so-called “oppressed” groups, hoping to gain the solidarity of the Arab and Islamic peoples. It also claims to seek the liberation of the occupied Arab territories, topped by Palestine, and confront the so-called “Zionist pride” to embarrass the moderate Arab regimes by focusing on their inability to carry out their national duties.
Nevertheless, the developments of events in various fields of direct confrontation with Israel always indicate that what Tehran claims about its pursuit of a comprehensive confrontation with the Hebrew state are just false allegations.
Iran and its armed proxies have proven unable to harm Israel or prevent it from carrying out its qualitative intelligence operations against Iranian figures, launching cyber-attacks on the Iranian nuclear facilities and staging intense and painful airstrikes targeting military positions of the pro-Iranian militias and their arms depots in Syria and Iraq.
It is noteworthy that in return for its inability to directly confront Israel, Tehran intends to respond to any Western move against it by targeting its neighboring Arab countries. But as usual, it doesn’t implement the operation itself but rather deploys its regional terrorist arms.
This happened in 2019, when the British Royal Marines seized a giant Iranian oil tanker in Gibraltar. Back then, many evidences affirmed that Tehran assigned and armed Yemen’s Houthi militias to attack the Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais.
It is currently depending more on Houthis to carry out attacks on its behalf, given the wide available space in Yemen and the improbability of designating the group as terrorist. The Iranian-backed group has recently launched a terrorist attack on oil facilities and civilian institutions in Abu Dhabi after being given the green light by Tehran.
The attack and its aftermath imply several messages to all those concerned with the future of the region.
They indicate that Tehran’s political and military investments and its sectarian fueling in the region during the past 40 years are not in vain.
Iran is not weak. It is able to bring about a qualitative and strategic shift in the ongoing power struggles by expanding the circle of confrontation and disturbing several parties. It will not pay alone the bill in case of the failure of Vienna talks.
