Egypt Contemplates the Prospects of a Biden Electoral Victory

With the US elections just weeks away, President Donald Trump, who has formed a close alliance with President Abdelfattah El-Sisi, is trailing in polls to Democrat Joe Biden, Egypt, one of the largest recipients of US aid, Cairo is contemplating the prospects of a Biden electoral victory. During Trump's term, the leaders of the two countries enjoyed good relations, and military and economic cooperation between them was upgraded.
 
Should former Vice President Biden win the White House, America will likely be in for a foreign policy about-face as Biden reverses, dismantles or severely curtails many of Trump’s most significant and boldest actions. Trump’s approach to the Middle East has been defined by strong support for Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, and a more confrontational stance toward Iran. From the Middle East to Asia, Latin America to Africa and, particularly, Europe, and on issues including trade, terrorism, arms control and immigration, the presumptive Democratic nominee and his advisers have vowed to unleash a tsunami of change in how the US handles itself in the international arena. Back in July, the foreign policy adviser of Biden said that an administration under the Democratic presidential nominee would make US relationships with Saudi Arabia and Egypt in the Middle East "look very different".
 
Biden’s foreign policy views and team are expected to be similar to those of Clinton and the Obama administration, with some tweaks. Hilary Clinton served as secretary of state during a crucial period in the history of the Arab region, including the early years of the so-called Arab Spring, when a wave of revolutions and popular uprisings spread across several countries.
 
While Trump is described as free of illusions about the Muslim Brotherhood, Biden is portrayed as someone who will continue the policy of President Barack Obama, and liable once again to seek reconciliation with the radical Islamist and Iranian axes, at the expense of the pragmatic regional axis. A website close to the Egyptian regime recently warned that Biden "will give the Islamists in the Middle East a ‘second [Arab] Spring.'"
 
In recent weeks, the Egyptian press has brought Former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton's email controversy back in the spotlight. Various news sites published “recently declassified emails” that serve as evidence of the Obama administration's support for the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic group designated by Egypt as a terrorist organization in late 2013. 
 
Obama never invited Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to visit the White House, and his administration initially regarded the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood in July 2013 as a military coup against a legitimately elected government. The administration froze $260 million in military aid for nearly two years, and suspended joint military exercises with Egypt in an attempt to pressure Cairo to restore the democratic processes that dissolved under el-Sisi's regime
 
They emails in question accuse the former US administration of “using the Qatar-based Al Jazeera news network to spread chaos in the region.” Egyptian TV channel Sada el-Balad claimed that a leaked Clinton email revealed that she visited Qatar in 2010 and met with Al Jazeera's then-director Wadah Khanfar and with the channel's board members. The English-language news site Egypt Today stated that Clinton’s emails serve as “a reminder of a US policy that favoured the Muslim Brotherhood at the expense of the Egyptian people.” 
 
Other articles make similar claims about Clinton coordinating with Qatar or the Brotherhood. The articles also assert that under the Obama administration the US sought to “bring the Brotherhood in all of the Middle East.” 
 
An e-mail subject-lined “Muslim Brothers at Davos and Beyond” discussed how the “leaders of the Western nations accepted the Muslim Brotherhood as the new, dominant force in Egypt and are adjusting their foreign and economic policies accordingly.” The e-mail also confirmed the role of Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh, a former leader of the Brotherhood and a presidential elections candidate in 2012, in improving the reputation of the Brotherhood among Western government and business leaders. 
 
In an e-mail dated 17 July 2012 subject-lined “in Egypt, US government seeks a few good Democrats,” an article in the Washington Post is shared in which the US had announced three months earlier that it was giving $65,000 in grants “to build democracy in Egypt” and that an Egyptian, Marawan Younes, had pursued a grant and had finally succeeded in receiving it. 
 
Gulf newspaper Al-Ain interviewed an expert in Yemen who asserted that the “liberal left in the US supports the extreme right in the Middle East.” This allegedly destabilised Yemen and led to civil war. Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen in 2015 to stop the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels from taking Aden. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are concerned about the role of the Brotherhood today. They see it as linked closely to Qatar, Turkey and Hamas and assert it is putting down roots in Europe.  
 
Thousands of Clinton’s e-mails were declassified in 2015, but thousands of others were not, and today US President Donald Trump is demanding their disclosure. He has reprimanded Mike Pompeo, the present US secretary of state, for not having released them thus far, prompting Pompeo to announce his intention to do just that. 
 
Another matter liable to cool relations between the United States and Egypt is a possible change in American policy toward Iran. As Vice President, Biden consistently supported the nuclear agreement with Iran, and he has committed to renew it if Iran resumes fulfillment of its conditions. Furthermore, it cannot be ruled out that a Biden administration will adopt a softer policy towards Iran's overall conduct in the Middle East. Egypt is less worried about the Iranian nuclear program than are allies in the Gulf, but it also regards Iran as a threat to regional stability and order, and fears a scenario of Iran allying with members of the Islamist axis – Turkey, Qatar, and the Muslim Brotherhood.